TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting BenBIogger:


Hey Ben, could you post a link for a loop of that disturbance?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
855. slavp
Quoting alaina1085:


Same here
So ya'll are in the same boat as me then lol
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I know Bill. :)

Ahem! so whose Bill! and how long has this been going on! lol
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Bill, Claudette, and Danny. Interesting
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847 OMG that was priceless
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Ok, stop calling that wave "Bill". It isn't even an invest yet.
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Good Gumbo is found in Crowley,eh, Cher?
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Quoting 7544:


na not yet navy still says

02L.TWO
maybe another 12 hours tho


Hehe... well to play it safe it NHC might leave for a max of 12hrs as TD just to see how well it does during DMIN and DMAX... in my opinion. But based on the estimates I would upgrade it to a TS.
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It's hard to imagine Bill becoming a monster...especially after he just helped rescue those two reporters from North Korea.
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Quoting hondaguy:


Not louisianaboy, but I'm in Ascension here.


Same here
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Evacuated to Crowley for Katrina. Great people there!!
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844. slavp
Lol I wish i was young enough to be in school still..Id be heading northward myself....
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Where in louisiana are you louisianaboy? I'm in vermilion parish

I was born and raised in Crowley (Acadia Parish) but i just moved up to Monroe for college! I feel sorry for all you suckers on the coast! haha just playing


Thanks! lol
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Steady rate of strengthening based on Advanced Dvorak Technique
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841. 7544
Quoting futuremet:
Bottom line is: the east coast/EGOM has three things to monitor

52w wave

TD2

"Bill"


agree
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
OK Drakoen, do you think it is unlikely that TD 2 and Bill will hit the east coast of the USA north of FL?
Bill??
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Quoting ChrisDcane:
oh so the disturbance just of the African coast is "BILL" ?


Correct...according to the models
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Where in louisiana are you louisianaboy? I'm in vermilion parish

I was born and raised in Crowley (Acadia Parish) but i just moved up to Monroe for college! I feel sorry for all you suckers on the coast! haha just playing
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Bottom line is: the east coast/EGOM has three things to monitor

52w wave

TD2

"Bill"
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Will be interesting to see what buoy 13008 has to say as time goes on.
Right now:

Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 °F
Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.1 °F
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.96 in
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 14.0 kts
Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting PSL2007:
Bill is a virtual storm.


Exactly
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Quoting slavp:
Where in louisiana are you louisianaboy? I'm in vermilion parish


Not louisianaboy, but I'm in Ascension here.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Goodnight all.
Stay safe, Play safe, Blog safe and please no fighting and no more virus's.
Bye Aussie.
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831. 7544
Quoting WxLogic:
Seems the TWO @2PM will have TD#2 made TS ANA.


na not yet navy still says

02L.TWO
maybe another 12 hours tho
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
Quoting ChrisDcane:
theres no bill? on the NHC website


We don't have Ana yet, but TD2 will most likely become Ana. That tropical wave coming off Africa will most likely end up becoming Tropical Storm Bill in a few days time. The long range model's are predicting it.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

You don't know Bill? I thought everyone knew Bill.


I know Bill. :)
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oh so the disturbance just of the African coast is "BILL" ?
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Bill is a virtual storm.
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Quoting futuremet:


That is because it is too aggressive on its strength and underestimates the high...



The models did that a lot last year. Remember IKE, lol.
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825. slavp
Where in louisiana are you louisianaboy? I'm in vermilion parish
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Quoting KYhomeboy:


Exactly! The over hype and hysteria is typical on this blog. "Bill" has hardly emerged off of the coast yet and we're already talking about a track of 8 days plus.

Bill is a situational Storm
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Quoting StormChaser81:


Looks like TD 2 is trying to form a moist atmosphere around it self. Still has nice big convection flares ups on the northwest quad...


Lots of dry air near by. It really needs to develop a CDO to insulate the center.
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Guys, Blog is out.

TD 2 forms, Soon to become Ana. TD 3 on the way. Maka is here.
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Quoting ChrisDcane:
who the hell is BILL?

You don't know Bill? I thought everyone knew Bill.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well if a major does hit Georgia, I wonder how close it would have to get until people stopped saying "it's a threat to Florida and the Carolinas" ;)


it would have to be near Atlanta.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


The T# went up didn't it?


yes T is up 0.2T/hour

in 3,5 hours has pass from 1.5T to 2.0T, winds from 25knots to 30knots
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theres no bill? on the NHC website
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well if a major does hit Georgia, I wonder how close it would have to get until people stopped saying "it's a threat to Florida and the Carolinas" ;)


Even when it's making landfall there will still be people saying that it's a Fl, NC/SC threat lol.
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Goodnight all.
Stay safe, Play safe, Blog safe and please no fighting and no more virus's.
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Looks like TD 2 is trying to form a moist atmosphere around it self. Still has nice big convection flares ups on the northwest quad...
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well if a major does hit Georgia, I wonder how close it would have to get until people stopped saying "it's a threat to Florida and the Carolinas" ;)


Wait, do you mean Georgia has a coastline that could be threatened???
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Seems the TWO @2PM will have TD#2 made TS ANA.
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Quoting ChrisDcane:
who the hell is BILL?


Kill Bill.
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Are we geeting so hopefull we already calling for bill? gosh guys we just got our first storm
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.