TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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TWO is out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Oh man,..I forgot yesterday was opening day for White Shrimp Trawling..

Shoot,..I gotta go to the Fish Market this aft ASAP...!!!
I'll go for the red ones...pssstttt they are already cooked....LOL Less work. More time for drinkin'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Iberia parish here
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING
A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW AS IT MOVES WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Graphics are out for 12Z GFDL and HWRF. Select GHM for GFDL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_namer.shtml
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
And we have the Shrip festival goin on this week...

Well Alaina stay in here and track the tropics and alert me if anything threatens im going to the shrimp festival lol


LOL, ok. Bring some back.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting louisianaboy444:
And we have the Shrip festival goin on this week...

Well Alaina stay in here and track the tropics and alert me if anything threatens im going to the shrimp festival lol


Hey 444,I know a guy that can untangle yer arms if ya need to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rwdobson:


Yes, and I potentially could win powerball tomorrow.


LOL.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Oh man,..I forgot yesterday was opening day for White Shrimp Trawling..

Shoot,..I gotta go to the Fish Market this aft ASAP...!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anything new with the wave over the islands?
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And we have the Shrip festival goin on this week...

Well Alaina stay in here and track the tropics and alert me if anything threatens im going to the shrimp festival lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:
guys, could this potentially be a once in a lifetime cane if everything came into parr perfectlyw ell for it?


nope
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
guys, could this potentially be a once in a lifetime cane if everything came into parr perfectlyw ell for it?


Yes, and I potentially could win powerball tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:




Did ya run into those scattered showers while ago..?
Not till I got 2 miles from my front door..Go figure
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
888. MahFL
Ha, weatherstudent is home.....do your homework, and turn the music down !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hahaguy:


You mean Bubba.


That would be Billy, (Jimmy's brother) promoter of Billy Beer.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
886. slavp
Quoting alaina1085:


Heck ya, there are alot of us here.



We are the Jambalaya capital. MMM..
And we have the Shrip festival goin on this week...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KYhomeboy:


Hey Ben, could you post a link for a loop of that disturbance?


Link
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
884. MahFL
Acemmett90 TS are 39 mph, not 40 mph...
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Good Gumbo is found in Crowley

We the rice captial of the world lol


Everytime I go that way I see the huge billboard advertising rice...that explains it now. lol
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Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Good afternoon Patrap. Just got home from your neck of the woods




Did ya run into those scattered showers while ago..?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:
guys, could this potentially be a once in a lifetime cane if everything came into parr perfectlyw ell for it?


Yes, especially if one only lives for a couple of weeks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
879. slavp
Quoting alaina1085:


Haha, Nice.
LOL Thanks
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Quoting hondaguy:


Good to see the Louisiana ppl representin! lol


Heck ya, there are alot of us here.

Quoting louisianaboy444:
Good Gumbo is found in Crowley

We the rice captial of the world lol


We are the Jambalaya capital. MMM..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon Patrap. Just got home from your neck of the woods
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Evacuated to Crowley for Katrina. Great people there!!

Well of course we cajun we understand hospatality


Must say I wish we had a Best Stop In NOLA - very entertaining blog today. "Grace in 1020 Hours" too funny
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Gumbo is found in Crowley

We the rice captial of the world lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting slavp:
Isn't Bill Jim Cantores brother?


Haha, Nice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Full-screen
Station 41040
NDBC
Location: 14.477N 53.008W
Conditions as of:
Tue, 11 Aug 2009 16:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.92 in and falling
Air Temperature: 79.9 F
Dew Point: 79.7 F
Water Temperature: 82.4 F
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting alaina1085:


Same here


Good to see the Louisiana ppl representin! lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonekid:
Too far in advance.

apparently we are not familiar with sarcasm.
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866. slavp
Isn't Bill Jim Cantores brother?
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Quoting gator23:
Who thinks Tropical Storm Grace will hit the Bahamas at 1020 Hours?
Come on guys this is ridiculous the GFS is just predicting storms so we have to pay attention. Relax and make sure you have your supplies.
Too far in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evacuated to Crowley for Katrina. Great people there!!

Well of course we cajun we understand hospatality
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Acemmett90:

Bill Clinton

Bill Formed over North Korea and then made its way to New York
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
Ok, stop calling that wave "Bill". It isn't even an invest yet.


Agreed, it could create mis-conceptions among other bloggers that is not needed.
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Someone find Bill and tell him the Soda machine is fresh outta Fresca's and to please refill that muther,cuz its gonna be a Long week.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
I know Bill. :)

Ahem! so whose Bill! and how long has this been going on! lol


LOL :p Please boy, you know whats up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Who thinks Tropical Storm Grace will hit the Bahamas at 1020 Hours?
Come on guys this is ridiculous the GFS is just predicting storms so we have to pay attention. Relax and make sure you have your supplies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting louisianaboy444:
I know Bill. :)

Ahem! so whose Bill! and how long has this been going on! lol


You mean Bubba.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BenBIogger:


Hey Ben, could you post a link for a loop of that disturbance?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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