TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The more I look at it, the more I think 'ana' will stay out to sea, except for Bermuda maybe. But 'bill' I still have a bad feeling about.....


It's really hard to tell at this point...noone really knows where these systems are going...especially the hypothetical "Bill".

Names shouldnt be pinned to these systems until they are earned via the NHC. They should be referred to as TD2 and invest 99L.
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Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Could someone ive me a link to Ana ans Bill. I can't find either storm anywhere


there is no link because "ana" is td2 and "bill" is the wave that just came off africa.
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..explain all these Controls...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The more I look at it, the more I think 'ana' will stay out to sea, except for Bermuda maybe. But 'bill' I still have a bad feeling about.....
Could someone ive me a link to Ana ans Bill. I can't find either storm anywhere
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viking!!! hows FWB been doing....
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
guys, could this potentially be a once in a lifetime cane if everything came into parr perfectlyw ell for it?


Any of them could be a "once in a lfietime storm" if all the peices come together...worry about things as they become factors, huh?
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Every Runs of the GFS model makes in the past 48hrs me remaind Huricanes Hugo (1989) and George (1998)same spot same track and for know looks like the system that GFS and other models are forescasting is a major one like the other ones.
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i said this this morning and i will say again.the 52W area has a much better chance in the short term than the others especially the so called Bill.there is a closed low and upper CLASSIC upper cyclone over the system that will really get it going.its convection is improving and the low level spin is very noticeable the last couple hours.everyone is concentrated what 1000 miles away but there is a potentially greater threat closer to home.keep your eyes open for this creaper.
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Quoting hurricanefiend85:


What is that storm that just blows up all of sudden and is striking FL by Sun on the 12Z GFDL? Doesn't look to be either TD2 or the upcoming wave off Africa...




Shhhh you'll scare WS!!!! Alaina, you have pretty eyes. Don't click on links you'll get a virus.

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Look at the island of Grenada, I see thunderstorms firing up from this yellow circle in the lesser Antilles.(Southern tip).
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Quoting extreme236:


Good afternoon. Perhaps it could get mentioned later, after all 99L wasnt mentioned for a little while.


Yeah, that is what I thought
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WS is my bestest friend.
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On another note. Wunderground is full of tracking cookies. I ran another virus scan on my main and it is picking up on the cookies before I had installed Adblocker. Definately want to block those ads.
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922. FloridaTigers 5:41 PM GMT on August 11, 2009
This WS guy is getting awfully annoying



lol...if you can't handle him now just wait till something gets closer to S Fl...
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938. slavp
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Lafayette here!
Hi Hanna...Just south of you in Erath here
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Quoting hurricanefiend85:


What is that storm that just blows up all of sudden and is striking FL by Sun on the 12Z GFDL? Doesn't look to be either TD2 or the upcoming wave off Africa...


The Wave around 53W
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting AllStar17:


Good afternoon, extreme

Maybe at 8? I am assuming that wave is what virtually all the models make a full-fledged hurricane (Bill)


Good afternoon. Perhaps it could get mentioned later, after all 99L wasnt mentioned for a little while.
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ADT at 2.1!!!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/adt/odt02L.html
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Quoting hondaguy:


Good to see the Louisiana ppl representin! lol

Lafayette here!
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
This WS guy is getting awfully annoying.



Not if use this easy to navigate feature,


"Ignore User"



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
Quoting hurricanefiend85:


What is that storm that just blows up all of sudden and is striking FL by Sun on the 12Z GFDL? Doesn't look to be either TD2 or the upcoming wave off Africa...


The wave @ 53W Yellow circle #2 from the NHC
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WS is my favorite blogger.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting hurricanefiend85:


What is that storm that just blows up all of sudden and is striking FL by Sun on the 12Z GFDL? Doesn't look to be either TD2 or the upcoming wave off Africa...


Area currently near 52W. Also noted the graphics were still loading, did not show out to 126 hrs yet.
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0.4 to go before it will be Ana on the Dorvak.
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
This WS guy is getting awfully annoying.


Stick around, it gets worse...much worse.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
guys, could this potentially be a once in a lifetime cane if everything came into parr perfectlyw ell for it?


Sheesh, you could have 3 nervous breakdowns between now and then. You know that will change at least 10 times.
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Convection is starting to refire up on the southern tip of the Antilles.
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Quoting extreme236:
No mention of the African wave yet I see.


Good afternoon, extreme

Maybe at 8? I am assuming that wave is what virtually all the models make a full-fledged hurricane (Bill)
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Quoting AllStar17:
Wow! Was not on yesterday, and I come back today, and we have TD 2, A STORM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, TD FELICIA, INVEST 91E, AND 3 AREAS OF INTEREST IN THE ATLANTIC! Talk about activity!


WB, and yes! Finally the season is starting up.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
This WS guy is getting awfully annoying.
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Quoting extreme236:
No mention of the African wave yet I see.


Nothing to mention quite yet.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting BobinTampa:
WeatherStudent is back. Nobody tell him that 'Bill' is projected to become a Category 7 and head directly for South Florida.

Just keep taking about viruses and flirting with Alaina1085.....

:-)


Umm LOL.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Wow! Was not on yesterday, and I come back today, and we have TD 2, A STORM IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, TD FELICIA, INVEST 91E, AND 3 AREAS OF INTEREST IN THE ATLANTIC! Talk about activity!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Graphics are out for 12Z GFDL and HWRF. Select GHM for GFDL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_namer.shtml


What is that storm that just blows up all of sudden and is striking FL by Sun on the 12Z GFDL? Doesn't look to be either TD2 or the upcoming wave off Africa...
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No mention of the African wave yet I see.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 14:39:11 N Lon : 29:59:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1008.2mb/ 31.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.1 2.5 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -12.2C Cloud Region Temp : -30.6C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

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914. 7544
notice the dat it gets to fla AUG 24 wow dejevue
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Good afternoon..from South Fla
even though a long range model run..the GFS is running TD 2 through Herbet box 1...interesting!
Stay tuned...
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WeatherStudent is back. Nobody tell him that 'Bill' is projected to become a Category 7 and head directly for South Florida.

Just keep taking about viruses and flirting with Alaina1085.....

:-)
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Vortex 95 actually your wrong, the NHC just had an new update 4 minutes ago.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
guys, could this potentially be a once in a lifetime cane if everything came into parr perfectlyw ell for it?


They all "could" be a once in a lifetime cane if everything came into par perfectly!
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908. slavp
Quoting louisianaboy444:
And we have the Shrip festival goin on this week...

Well Alaina stay in here and track the tropics and alert me if anything threatens im going to the shrimp festival lol
LOL Come on down!!! The more the merrier!!!
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
guys, could this potentially be a once in a lifetime cane if everything came into parr perfectlyw ell for it?


If everything came together perfectly for ANY storm it could be a "once in a lifetime cane".
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TWO is out
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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