TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Pat: Untangle. Funny.
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992. kmanislander

what do you think about that blob..it has dropped alot since yesterday...but it's still there....
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1004. Patrap
Watching that one with Two open tabs Kman,..its peaked a lil Interest here and Im sure with you as well.





















Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128886
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

How's the weather over there in St.Kitts?Looks like 2 tropical waves coming at you.


ah weather is fine, but rather hot. Would like some rain cool down
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Quoting Drakoen:
UKMET and GFDL have the same ending position. HWRF and CMC most northern. GFS most southern. NOGAPS somewhere in between. I can see the NHC going with the UKMET and GFDL solution
Afternoon Drak. You have a link to the models?
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In 168 hrs the GFS builds a blocking ridge over the east coast. If whatever it is or Bill forms, its gonna be forced into the Carribbean and slamming into the Yucatan.
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1000. WxLogic
Quoting kmanislander:
Continuing area of concern



Sure is persistent...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4978
Quoting Weather456:
Next area of concern


Hey Weather. Good to see you. You getting some of that AOI?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
It seems like some people cant handle how some of us are calling the new wave the "Bill" wave. Unfortunate


I'll go with it...since i seem to be overruled.

It can be very mis-leading to some though.
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Quoting Weather456:
Next area of concern


How's the weather over there in St.Kitts?Looks like 2 tropical waves coming at you.
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UKMET and GFDL have the same ending position. HWRF and CMC most northern. GFS most southern. NOGAPS somewhere in between. I can see the NHC going with the UKMET and GFDL solution
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
i think we need to watch the tropical wave next to 53 west and 13 north.....


agree
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
It seems like some people cant handle how some of us are calling the new wave the "Bill" wave. Unfortunate




Well sport,only a Cartoon Character Blurts out unsubstantiated info..in a Quack like manner.

Daffy ring a Bell..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128886
Continuing area of concern

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Drama again

Sorry guys maybe i'm just old fashioned but i feel like my girlfriend should be able to post on her favorite blog without getting mistreated don't worry i'm out anyway see you guys later
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
990. slavp
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Greetings neighbor!
Hiya!!!!! And thanks!!!
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I'll ROFL if that wave at 53W becomes Bill.
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Next area of concern

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Been lurking for at least 3 years but had to represent. Metairie in the house!
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Shhhh you'll scare WS!!!! Alaina, you have pretty eyes. Don't click on links you'll get a virus

Ok look man i didn't want to do this in the blog but you ain't answering mail....First off she is my girlfriend and two this isn't E-Harmony she is a well respected blogger on here and she should be treated as such....


lol oh dang i tuned into the soap blog, crap change the channel change the channel!
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Shhhh you'll scare WS!!!! Alaina, you have pretty eyes. Don't click on links you'll get a virus

Ok look man i didn't want to do this in the blog but you ain't answering mail....First off she is my girlfriend and two this isn't E-Harmony she is a well respected blogger on here and she should be treated as such....

Drama again....
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LMAO!! E-Harmony....in wunderground...louisianaboy444 that's a new one i think for the blog..
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
guys plz, in all seriousness, try to take it easy with me at least for today, since it's my b-day in all, OK? spare me your unwanted insults for tomorrow, because i'm in an extremely good mood today, and no one will ruin it. anyways, when will the updated track forecast come out for td2? :)


Happy Birthday man. To answer your question, a new updated will come out every 6 hours at the 11 and 5 o'clock hours.
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It seems like some people cant handle how some of us are calling the new wave the "Bill" wave. Unfortunate
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Quoting CaneWarning:


No invests in the Atlantic...


Ok, see now I'm even confused...lol...I stand corrected!
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Quoting slavp:
Hi Hanna...Just south of you in Erath here

Greetings neighbor!
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Happy Birthday WS! We kid because we care. Place wouldn't be the same without ya.

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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
u are right stop calling bill maybe it will be ana frist..u never know and tropical D two will be bill..


Haha its true.
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UKMET takes Ana just north of the islands
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Shhhh you'll scare WS!!!! Alaina, you have pretty eyes. Don't click on links you'll get a virus

Ok look man i didn't want to do this in the blog but you ain't answering mail....First off she is my girlfriend and two this isn't E-Harmony she is a well respected blogger on here and she should be treated as such....
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
WS...JFV...who ever the hell you are.....happy b-day man...enjoy your day....we all just get a laugh out of you...no harm intended at all from my end...cheers
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Quoting hondaguy:


There is no Ana, or Bill yet.

There is a TD and an invest.


No invests in the Atlantic...
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Quoting hondaguy:


There is no Ana, or Bill yet.

There is a TD and an invest.


There is only a TD last I checked.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting CaneWarning:


HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!

Ditto.
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My bad Vortex95, and can we please stop using the names Ana and Bill until it actually forms or not.Your saying it like it is going to form anyway like,"Ana is going to move out to sea and Bill is going to threaten PR."Don't say anything you don't know the answer too, and don't rely to much on the GFS please, this year they have been going crazy.
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Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Could someone ive me a link to Ana ans Bill. I can't find either storm anywhere


There is no Ana, or Bill yet.

There is a TD and an invest.
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Quoting hondaguy:


It's really hard to tell at this point...noone really knows where these systems are going...especially the hypothetical "Bill".

Names shouldnt be pinned to these systems until they are earned via the NHC. They should be referred to as TD2 and invest 99L.


Actually, "bill" isn't even an invest yet! 99l became td2.

people might want to read that first sentence again and repeat it to themselves.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
guys plz, in all seriousness, try to take it easy with me at least for today, since it's my b-day in all, OK? spare me your unwanted insults for tomorrow, because i'm in an extremely good mood today, and no one will ruin it. anyways, when will the updated track forecast come out for td2? :)


HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!
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8) Just lookin around!
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957. 69Viking 5:53 PM GMT on August 11, 2009
Quoting Acemmett90:

even though i know it will be i know the blog will crash if we have and today and bill over the weekend


Why are you so obsessed with the blog crashing!? This blog has seen way more active periods over the years without crashing! It's not going to crash unless it gets infected with a virus or has a hardware failure, not because it gets busy in the tropics!


viking...it's called "wunder-rook"
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Quoting CyberStorm:
i said this this morning and i will say again.the 52W area has a much better chance in the short term than the others especially the so called Bill.there is a closed low and upper CLASSIC upper cyclone over the system that will really get it going.its convection is improving and the low level spin is very noticeable the last couple hours.everyone is concentrated what 1000 miles away but there is a potentially greater threat closer to home.keep your eyes open for this creaper.



A good post as the closer one gets no press from the Doomsayers...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128886
959. 7544
2 waves and 1 td to watch for now
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Quoting Acemmett90:

even though i know it will be i know the blog will crash if we have and today and bill over the weekend


Why are you so obsessed with the blog crashing!? This blog has seen way more active periods over the years without crashing! It's not going to crash unless it gets infected with a virus or has a hardware failure, not because it gets busy in the tropics!
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The more I look at it, the more I think 'ana' will stay out to sea, except for Bermuda maybe. But 'bill' I still have a bad feeling about.....


It's really hard to tell at this point...noone really knows where these systems are going...especially the hypothetical "Bill".

Names shouldnt be pinned to these systems until they are earned via the NHC. They should be referred to as TD2 and invest 99L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.