TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Hello everyone from SWLA..:) FINALLY something to track...been lurkin awhile...SWLA sure in the heck doesn't need anymore storms this year..had 2 affect us last year... like Gustav and IKE...UGH......
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1055. 19N81W
Kman what is your best guess as per time frame of that area of concern?...assuming it develops...
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The NHC should go with the TVCN at 5.

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Can anyone give me the link to view the Carribean? Want to take a look at the latest on the possible area of concern.
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1049. Patrap
"You Betcha" as A VP candidate once said,Kman.

The Nose of the AB High thru time is gonna be someones best friend,and worst enemy seems as usual too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
Quoting StormW:




More and more west.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
What do you think StormW will the NHC have to shift the track southward? Looking at the steering maps it looks unlikely that TD2 will recurve
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
well I see some things never change on this blog! Please keep the blog for Hurricane purposes only and keep the BS off of here. There are others that come on here only to read important info. pertaining to the weather and dont want to have to weed through the BS.
Thank you!

Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
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thanks kmanislander....this is the 1 that has my attention if it keeps creaping the way it is...the SST's are extremely hot....
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Yucatan ALERT, beware of incoming tropical systems within a few days.
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Quoting Acemmett90:

i know but it still sucks what happend to freedom of speech


Freedom of speech??? What does that have to do with a private blog?
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Its getting there.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1007.4mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.2 2.5 3.4
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Kman---

That area in the Antilles looks a little better... looks like a couple of spiral bands extending to the east and south... this one could sneak up on us..


It certainly seems to be trying to do so !
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Howdy! I'm a newb here, but just had a question. Been lurking for a bit and by far the majority of you seem very knowledgeable about tropical weather. I'm more of a hobbyist.

Okay, my question is this: What are the chances of TD2 sticking it out and making a Mid-Atlantic landfall? I don't know how to read all the models and steering currents and patterns and what-not. I was just curious.
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1036. cg2916
Dvorak 2.2 now.
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Quoting extreme236:


Getting there. Raw T# from ADT is in fact 3.4. Seems a bit high to me.


That does seem pretty high.

I could see how the NHC could go with a TS at 5pm.
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1034. sky1989
The Gulf of Mexico is like fire. If any fireworks (tropical disturbances) get into it, I fear what may happen.
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Quoting Patrap:
Watching that one with Two open tabs Kman,..its peaked a lil Interest here and Im sure with you as well.























Anything SE of me this time of year is watched very carefully. Gilbert came from just SE of Barbados where that blob started.
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I still think TD 2 will turn north by 55w
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6-12 hours to see first TS in atlantic season.

ANA is ready.
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Kman---

That area in the Antilles looks a little better... looks like a couple of spiral bands extending to the east and south... this one could sneak up on us..
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looking better.



Getting there. Raw T# from ADT is in fact 3.4. Seems a bit high to me.
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Quoting Acemmett90:
just got an email from dakster he got banned for the trojon comment last night


No shock there...
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1025. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:

Question is, though, can you type in such a way to replicate Daffy's speech? Or Donald, for that matter.


Pretty hard to even be a Blogger on this toughbook atmo,..my Dell was er,..reformatted unwittingly and the IT guy is still here for the Second Day on that matter.

I'll be opening a "Send Pat a New Dell Blog" when I can..
I'd like one with a Flat Screen with a Embossed Patrap Front too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
well that is a given, tell her to ignore those who do not comply if she see it fit.

He will probably get banned its over with lets move on
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
Gotta go, happy B-day WS and can't wait to see what's going to happen tonight.
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Quoting Nolehead:
992. kmanislander

what do you think about that blob..it has dropped alot since yesterday...but it's still there....


That feature has refused to dissipate for several days now and is on the upswing once more. It will likely build slowly until it gets to 70W where there is a huge ridge of high pressure building and expanding in the central Caribbean.

If it can sustain itself and get under that ridge it could become very interesting very quickly IMO
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Looking better.

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Wow, the wave at 53 W has really surprised me. The GFDL run caught my attention when I saw it being developed. I then looked to see how reasonable this could be and wind shear maps from CIMSS depict an anticyclone over the area. The wind shear is low, in the 5-10 knot range. Satellite images of the area show decent low-mid level turning. What do yall think of this area? I give it a decent shot at developing although as the NHC says, it will be slow to occur.
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WSJFV....sincere wishes for a very happy Birthdasy, dude!!!!!!!!!!!


BTW...tomorrow is Stormjunkie's birthday...please give him a hard time about it...he's really gettin' old...
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Bill Gates will never allow this so called "BILL" to happen!LOL
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Quoting Patrap:




Well sport,only a Cartoon Character Blurts out unsubstantiated info..in a Quack like manner.

Daffy ring a Bell..?

Question is, though, can you type in such a way to replicate Daffy's speech? Or Donald, for that matter.
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Quoting hondaguy:


I'll go with it...since i seem to be overruled.

It's can be very mis-leading to some though.


Sorry if its causing confusion.

It was actually supposed to make things a bit less confusing.
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1012. Patrap
Hiya atmo,..looks like plenty o stuff to watch for the duration
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128621
1011. flsky
Does anyone have an update for the MJO?
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Point Salines, Grenada (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 24 sec ago
77 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the North
Pressure: - (Steady)
Visibility: 2.5 miles
UV: 8 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1500 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3500 ft
Mostly Cloudy 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 23 ft

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Quoting Patrap:




Well sport,only a Cartoon Character Blurts out unsubstantiated info..in a Quack like manner.

Daffy ring a Bell..?


It wasnt an attack on anyone. Its just unfortunate that its confusing some people into thinking we have 2 Tropical storms out there. Misinformation is the last thing we want.
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Pat: Untangle. Funny.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.