TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Eh the TAFB gave a pretty anemic number too...T1.5/1.5.
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1155. slavp
Quoting Joanie38:


ROFL, that was funny!!! I hope I do too...lol..
*Keeps fingers crossed*
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BOOM

And just like that I have 13 spyware warnings.

Im out till I can fix this.
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We could see Ana at 5 PM.
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1152. flsky
Below is the MJO Overview Statement from Aug. 10:


• Enhanced rainfall is expected across the eastern Pacific and Central America and
reduced rainfall is expected across India and Indonesia. Tropical cyclogenesis is
favored across the eastern Pacific and east-central Atlantic.
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Quoting Claudette1234:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 14:40:14 N Lon : 30:10:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.3 2.7 3.0

what the hell it is getting stronger 33kt
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1149. slavp
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Oh no - you need to find long lost relatives North of Houston! lol
All my other relatives are in CALI!!! Too far to evac too lol
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with the models showing all the storms hitting Florida. in 2004 we where rumbled by hurricane after hurricane. I'm sure nobody in Florida will forget that year
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Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWF 12z is slower to develop the wave off the African coast than the GFS and has the same track as the UKMET and GFDL on Ana except a little further south and slower.


Link?
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AL 02 2009081118 BEST 0 146N 299W 25 1006 TD
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Quoting slavp:
I know I am too lol...Hope I have some left by the end of the season lol


ROFL, that was funny!!! I hope I do too...lol..
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1144. sky1989
It is slowly but steadily intensifying right? We could have TS Ana at 5?
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Quoting slavp:
LOL Especially when my evac sight was relatives south of Houston!!!

Oh no - you need to find long lost relatives North of Houston! lol
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWF 12z is slower to develop the wave off the African coast than the GFS and has the same track as the UKMET and GFDL on Ana except a little further south and slower.


u have a link to that?
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850 Vort has increased markedly today with the AOI @ 53W. Almost the same as TD2.
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1140. IKE
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Could that large high aid in Divergence for systems in the area IKE


I would say yes.
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GOOD to see ya Stormw!!!!!!
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 14:40:14 N Lon : 30:10:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.3 2.7 3.0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1137. Drakoen
ECMWF 12z is slower to develop the wave off the African coast than the GFS and has the same track as the UKMET and GFDL on Ana except a little further south and slower.
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1136. slavp
Quoting Joanie38:


I guess the people in the GOM are bitting their nails...reguardless! Ummmm, INCLUDING me!!!
I know I am too lol...Hope I have some left by the end of the season lol
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There is still a lot of ocean out there folks. I would wait a little while longer before deciding if this one even gets near the East Coast.
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Quoting Patrap:
WARNING


My ZoneAlarm Security on the Toughbook here just alerted to the following.


The firewall has blocked internet access to your computer(Telnet)from98.176.3.141(TCPport1201)
(TCP Flags: S)
Time: 8/11/2009 13:24:44


I highly advise logging off at this Time.


Note to wu-tech




98.176.3.141
Record Type: IP Address

Cox Communications Inc. CXA (NET-98-160-0-0-1)
98.160.0.0 - 98.191.255.255
Cox Communications NETBLK-SD-RDC-98-176-0-0 (NET-98-176-0-0-1)
98.176.0.0 - 98.176.255.255

So, it came from a Cox customer.
The only way your telnet port should be open is if you specifically set up something to allow incoming requests.
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Thanks Storm W
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Quoting StormW:


:) I have no idea.


:)
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Quoting IKE:
Look at that high in the Caribbean. What a change......



That is why the two features nearby have to be watched carefully. That high may well expand and create a perfect upper level environment for anything in the central Caribbean. Right now, it is quite tight and would shear anything moving W underneath it but it may relax some before the blob near Grenada falls under the influence of the Eastern side of it.
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1129. sky1989
Hey StormW! What does the MJO forcast look like for the next month?
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Quoting slavp:
LOL I hear ya!!! All too common lately


I guess the people in the GOM are bitting their nails...reguardless! Ummmm, INCLUDING me!!!
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Quoting Patrap:
WARNING


My ZoneAlarm Security on the Toughbook here just alerted to the following.


The firewall has blocked internet access to your computer(Telnet)from98.176.3.141(TCPport1201)
(TCP Flags: S)
Time: 8/11/2009 13:24:44


I highly advise logging off at this Time.


Note to wu-tech



That could just be a scan from anyone. Not necessarily from someone here. If you are at work I am surprised it got that far. Telnet may not be blocked.
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Could that large high aid in Divergence for systems in the area IKE
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
1125. WxLogic
TD#2 RGB Floater
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
1123. Fshhead
If you guys are worried about clicking on erronous links, just hover the mouse over the link & it will tell you in the bottom left hand of the browser window what the link is to.. ;)
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1122. slavp
Quoting Joanie38:


AMEN to that too!!! I remember evacuating twice in 2 weeks!!! THAT was horrible!!!
LOL I hear ya!!! All too common lately
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Quoting slavp:
Ive taken care of all of that already!!! LOL..After Rita, Gustave and Ike, i'm tired of running lol


AMEN to that too!!! I remember evacuating twice in 2 weeks!!! THAT was horrible!!!
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
147 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

Excerpt...

EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES (INITIALIZED AT 12Z TODAY)

INITIAL F24 F36 F48 F60 F72 F84
51W (S/17N) 56W 60W 63W 67W 72W 75W
62W (S/17N) 69W 72W 75W 78W 82W 85W
77W (S/17N) 84W 87W 91W 93W 97W 99W

THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY 48
HRS. A TUTT TO THE WEST WILL INTERACT WITH THIS WAVE TO FORCE MOST
OF THE MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE FRENCH/LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE WE
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BY
48 HRS THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO
RICO... WHERE WE EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. AS THE ITCZ REMAINS NORTH
OF 10N...CONVECTION OVER THE GUIANAS WILL BE LIMITED TO SEA BREEZE
RELATED CONVECTION.

THE WAVE ALONG 62W IS INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ IN SUPPORT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS VENEZUELA WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-55MM. THIS RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
COLOMBIA ON DAYS 2 AND 3 WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS.

THE WAVE ALONG 77W IS ALSO IN INTERACTION WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH. ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INTO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA IT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
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1119. sky1989
Quoting IKE:
Look at that high in the Caribbean. What a change......



What a difference from last week, and the whole hurricane season, up until now, for that matter.
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1118. slavp
Quoting hurricanehanna:

I can imagine - the stress will throw you for a loop!
LOL Especially when my evac sight was relatives south of Houston!!!
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1117. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
Look at that high in the Caribbean. What a change......



Have to love how WX changes... is not the same old setup every time you look at it.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
1116. NEwxguy
repeat of 2004???Where did that come from?
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Storm W, Do you think the wave off Africa could develope into Anna before TD2 has a chance?
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Quoting slavp:
Ive taken care of all of that already!!! LOL..After Rita, Gustave and Ike, i'm tired of running lol

I can imagine - the stress will throw you for a loop!
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
1112. IKE
Look at that high in the Caribbean. What a change......

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Quoting F5Tornado:
Hey Benblogger,

Do you think that the other Atlantic systems will support Tropical Cyclone formation? the Eastern one certainly won't in my opinion, the west one nah and we are probably looking at TD Ana in the next few hours.

Its funny that we are suddenly seeing 3 discussions in the Atlantic, this is an El Nino event, doesn't it disrupt wind flow orsomething like that in the Atlantic? This is probably why we have already seen a Tropical Cyclone Category 4.

Any of you want to comment in this?



1 is a non event and 2 is something worth following. The area of concern per the long term models is the wave coming off of Africa right now.
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So it looks like we could have a repeat of 2004. Hopefully not i live in Tampa. lol
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1109. slavp
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Amen to that! And check the oil level in the generator ;)
Ive taken care of all of that already!!! LOL..After Rita, Gustave and Ike, i'm tired of running lol
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Quoting louisianaboy444:

I'll stop him at the border!

I remember when he was in Lafayette for Lily

Boy did he jinx us! He is no longer allowed back in Cajun Country!
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting Joanie38:


Hello Hurricanehanna..:) Yeah, we are praying that it misses the gulf all together, but as they say, you can't really tell well any of them is going....all you can do is PRAY!

Amen to that! And check the oil level in the generator ;)
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting ssmate:


I'm a guy also, so I know exactly what your going through.


ROFLMHO!
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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