TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting slavp:
East Coast of Florida


Ok, thanks.
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Quoting Joanie38:


Well, living here in SWLA, during hurricane season, i'm prepared reguardless. I would rather be safe then sorry and just keep up to date on the tropics.


Oh me too! I think that more people are starting to prepare ahead of time, and the state helps to motivate by offering that "tax holiday" weekend.

I remember that when Gustav was approaching there wasnt that horrible mad rush that I remember for so many other storms before.

Also something cool that happened: I live near the Tanger mall, and I had gone to get subway at Tanger the Sunday before Gustav was supposed to hit. When I pulled away from Subway there were pallets of well over 1,000 cases sitting in the middle of the Tanger Mall parking lot...I pulled up and saw a couple of ppl loading their cars.

Apparently one of the businesses was feeling generous and just dumped the water right there in the parking lot! It wasnt expired either, Nestle Brand. I took about 24 cases and distributed among my family...My poor Civic was a low rider in the back due to all the weight. lol
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Quoting stormdude77:
TD 2 can't expand it's convection because of the dry air, JMO


Hey. IF TD2 does nothing else, it'll serve as a path moistener for that much anticipated African wave.
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Quoting sky1989:
I think that if TD2 wants to become TS Ana, it needs to do it quickly before the system to its east starts developing, and robs energy and starts shearing TD2 as Hurricane Felicia did to TS Enrique in the Pacific.


I dont believe that scenario would happen here. There is quite a bit of distance from each other both in terms of longitude and latitude.
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1202. slavp
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Hi
What does ECFL stand for? thanks.
East Coast of Florida
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SST for TD2 not too much down for the next 24h

models say 27-28ºC only down 0.5ºC next 24 hrs, so TD2 has to continous strong at same speed.
TS ANA in 6-12hrs for sure.
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Keep shifting south.

Dynamical 18Z.

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TD 2 can't expand it's convection because of the dry air, JMO
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Quoting Skyepony:
The wave around 53W has really begun to catch my attention. Chances are good for it to make it to ECFL this weekend. The high in the Caribbean + the bermuda high, not to mention the gfs persistance. The shear Map Ike posted says alot, anticyclone maybe a little weaker than earlier, pattern setting up not so good. Probiblity maps had it up to yellow~ backed off slightly, vorticity is picking up. It's total lack of convection had been it's downfall so far. Now convection is beginning to fire & it's taken on a V shape...


Hi
What does ECFL stand for? thanks.
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1197. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TROPICAL STORM ETAU (T0909)
3:00 AM JST August 12 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Etau (994 hPa) located at 32.7N 145.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving east at 20 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in south quadrant
60 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 33.4N 152.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 35.4N 154.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 39.1N 160.8E - EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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12Z ECMWF takes Ana farther south

Bye, I'm out...bee back in 4hrs
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1194. Skyepony (Mod)
The wave around 53W has really begun to catch my attention. Chances are good for it to make it to ECFL this weekend. The high in the Caribbean + the bermuda high, not to mention the gfs persistance. The shear Map Ike posted says alot, anticyclone maybe a little weaker than earlier, pattern setting up not so good. Probiblity maps had it up to yellow~ backed off slightly, vorticity is picking up. It's total lack of convection had been it's downfall so far. Now convection is beginning to fire & it's taken on a V shape...
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1193. sky1989
I think that if TD2 wants to become TS Ana, it needs to do it quickly before the system to its east starts developing, and robs energy and starts shearing TD2 as Hurricane Felicia did to TS Enrique in the Pacific.
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any possibility of something like this: Link
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TD 2 just needs more convection. The cloud tops are rather warm and they aren't very well organized

It looks like the convection is starting to grow and getting deeper
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For one, the visible floater of TD 2 shows the system continues to trend a little west of the forecast points. If Td 2 continues to do past 40W, it could take the western side of the analog gap

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1188. slavp
Quoting Joanie38:


Well, living here in SWLA, during hurricane season, i'm prepared reguardless. I would rather be safe then sorry and just keep up to date on the tropics.
I agree,,,Ive been running my generator once a month as well as stocking up on water and food since February lol
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

TD2
Thanks
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TD 2 just needs more convection. The cloud tops are rather warm and they aren't very well organized.
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1167. hondaguy 6:49 PM GMT on August 11, 2009
Quoting Joanie38:


I guess the people in the GOM are bitting their nails...reguardless! Ummmm, INCLUDING me!!!


It's funny cause I've spread word around, but noone seems interested...it's usually that way until something actually gets into the Gulf really...which is sad.


this is so true...
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009


LONG TERM (THURS NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
DOWN INTO AL/GA THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
NUDGES ITS WAY BACK IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY...WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATING BACK NORTH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY EVENING. KEPT NEAR CLIMO POPS (50% INLAND) IN
THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH PW`S AROUND/JUST BELOW 2 INCHES AND MOST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING UP TO OUR NW (THEREFORE
EXPECTING MOSTLY SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION).

LOOKING FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE SE FL COAST SAT MORNING...SENDING A PLUME OF
MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA.
PW`S ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE 2
INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS INLAND BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND/JUST BELOW CLIMO
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES.

THE TROPICAL WAVE HEADS UP TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOME DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE ON MONDAY.
TEMPS MON AND TUES
AROUND/JUST ABOVE CLIMO (AROUND 92-93 DEGREES) IN ANTICIPATION OF
THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE PENINSULA BY MIDWEEK HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH TIMING/TRACK IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

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Quoting StormW:
Hey 456!

Gettin' ready to step out...just wanted to say hi!


Hey, good day
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
In all seriousness...

What does it look like for the GOM this year? I know the waters are HOT!!! - Since it is getting closer to peak season, is anyone seeing anything that would indicate a storm in the Gulf? A possible Major storm?
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Is the current thinking that one of the two yellow NHC blobs might enter the GOM and form into something?
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Quoting hondaguy:


It's funny cause I've spread word around, but noone seems interested...it's usually that way until something actually gets into the Gulf really...which is sad.


Well, living here in SWLA, during hurricane season, i'm prepared reguardless. I would rather be safe then sorry and just keep up to date on the tropics.
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Quoting ALCoastGambler:
which one is this for? td2 or AOI

TD2
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Quoting atmoaggie:



98.176.3.141
Record Type: IP Address

Cox Communications Inc. CXA (NET-98-160-0-0-1)
98.160.0.0 - 98.191.255.255
Cox Communications NETBLK-SD-RDC-98-176-0-0 (NET-98-176-0-0-1)
98.176.0.0 - 98.176.255.255

So, it came from a Cox customer.
The only way your telnet port should be open is if you specifically set up something to allow incoming requests.


Sounds like someone was just sniffing around.
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1177. cg2916
Quoting CaneWarning:
We could see Ana at 5 PM.

The SSD lowered their Dvorak numbers to T1.5/2.0. So probably not.
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Heading back to the office now. See you later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Quoting extreme236:


The TAFB and SAB estimates are done by actual people. ADT is not.


Thanks. I guess I shouldn't look at the T# so much.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 14:40:14 N Lon : 30:10:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.3 2.7 3.0
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Thanks 456 for the models,
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1172. sky1989
Quoting StormW:








Thank you very much Storm! So, it looks like upward motion for the eastern Atlantic for nearly all the rest of August. Things could get interesting.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

PATTERN SHOULD FULLY TRANSITION ON FRIDAY AS STRONGER HIGH PRES
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGER AND
DEEPER EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH GFS AND
NAM MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 52W. THEREFORE, SLIGHTLY
LOWER POPS INDICATED BY MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY LOOK REASONABLE.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND PERHAPS MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES, THERE
WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER AREA-
WIDE. HOWEVER, FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONS CAN BE DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN AS WE GET TO OUR LATITUDE, AND IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THAT BULK OF THE MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. NEVERTHELESS,
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY AND
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND VERY WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE
ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Why are the numbers different from the T#?


The TAFB and SAB estimates are done by actual people. ADT is not.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

what the hell it is getting stronger 33kt
which one is this for? td2 or AOI
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Quoting Joanie38:


I guess the people in the GOM are bitting their nails...reguardless! Ummmm, INCLUDING me!!!


It's funny cause I've spread word around, but noone seems interested...it's usually that way until something actually gets into the Gulf really...which is sad.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Ike & Kmanislander.
Yes, I was wondering about that shear map.
ShearMapHonestly
Holy What Happened to Strong Easterlies in the Caribbean Batman! And what is that setup about?


In a word, " AUGUST "
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Quoting StormW:


Good to see you too Joanie!


Awwww gee...lol...thanks Stormw..:)
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Quoting extreme236:


Doubtful at this point:

AL, 02, 2009081118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 299W, 25, 1006, TD


Why are the numbers different from the T#?
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Hi Ike & Kmanislander.
Yes, I was wondering about that shear map.
ShearMapHonestly
Holy What Happened to Strong Easterlies in the Caribbean Batman! And what is that setup about?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

what the hell it is getting stronger 33kt


What is getting stronger? The possible "Ana"?
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 02 2009081118 BEST 0 146N 299W 25 1006 TD


No TS at 5pm.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
We could see Ana at 5 PM.


Doubtful at this point:

AL, 02, 2009081118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 299W, 25, 1006, TD
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1158. sky1989
The wave around 53W is looking much better. Whatever it does, it has the potential to be the first tropical "disturbance" to impact the U.S this year. There is still plenty of time to monitor it.
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Eh the TAFB gave a pretty anemic number too...T1.5/1.5.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.