TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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As a resident of Louisiana, and survivor of both Rita and Ike's horrible wraths...let me just say that I hope both of those bad boys stay OUT of the GOM. I still have the videos from both as water filled up 7 feet for Rita on my street, and 5 feet for Ike. Odd when the day before we were driving cars down the road and the day after had to drive a boat down it. It serves as a reminder to us that no storm, no matter the size, should ever be under estimated.
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
456 what is your take on the blob at around 62?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
1252. Drakoen
New Supercomputer?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Very ragged looking. Its going to take another day at least, for this to look impressive again.



Well we said the same thing yesterday and look what happened overnight. It just needs what happened last night to happen again. It lasted better today than yesterday.
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1249. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
poor WU can't handle making a cyclone map track for a system crossing the international dateline, hehe
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Quoting caneluver:
So Hondaguy, u dont like American cars or u just straight-up Honda, nice shades "Maverick"


Reported

When the tropics are active keep talk to relevant subjects, making fun of someones avatar isn't tolerated regardless of activity.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


My bad...

That was the 00z run. Too many tabs open.


lol I know cuz I'm refreshing the 12Z run as we speak but I did not get to see the 00Z run.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Well the sad part is some people told here to just click because that thought it was a link to storm w. Then read Pat warning be careful.
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000
NOUS42 KWNO 111726
ADMNFD


SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1714Z TUE AUG 11 2009


NEW NOAA NWS NCEP SUPERCOMPUTER IMPLEMENTATION UPDATE

AS THE FINAL TEST OF THE NEW SUPERCOMPUTERS..NCEP IS PLANNING
TO DISSEMINATE ALL 12Z CYCLE PRODUCTS OPERATIONALLY FROM THE
NEW STRATUS SUPERCOMPUTER IN GAITHERSBURG ON AUGUST 12...IF
THE TEST GOES WELL THEN WE WILL DECLARE STRATUS OPERATIONAL
AT 18Z ON AUGUST 12 AND NCEP PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN ON
STRATUS.

ORIGINALLY..THE ADVERTISED PLAN WAS FOR THE NEW SUPERCOMPUTERS
TO BE DECLARED OPERATIONAL ON AUGUST 18, HOWEVER WITH THE
ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC
NEXT WEEK
NCEP NCO HAS DECIDED TO IMPLEMENT THE NEW
SUPERCOMPUTER ON AUGUST 12 IF POSSIBLE IN ORDER TO MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE TRANSITION ON NWS OPERATIONS.

AS WITH PREVIOUS UPGRADES...THE MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE
NEW COMPUTER MAY BE DISCONTINUOUS FROM THOSE PRODUCED ON THE
OLD COMPUTER/PREVIOUS CYCLE ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY 5. WHY?
THE HARDWARE/COMPILERS USED BY THE TWO COMPUTERS DIFFER AND
THE DATA DECODERS/ASSIMILATION SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
INDEPENDENTLY ON EACH SYSTEM. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL CREATE
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL INITIAL CONDITIONS CAUSED BY
ASSIMILATING DIFFERENT AMOUNTS OF DATA AND USING SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT FIRST GUESS FIELDS. SMALL NON-METEOROLOGICAL
DIFFERENCES EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO RANDOM NOISE - TRIGGERING
CONVECTION IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AT DIFFERENT TIMES.
THESE TYPES OF DIFFERENCES GROW QUICKLY AND TEND TO
SATURATE AFTER A FEW HOURS OF MODEL TIME. AVERAGED OVER A
LARGE NUMBER OF CASES THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ONE MACHINE
IS BETTER THAN THE OTHER...OR DIFFERENT IN ANY OTHER
SYSTEMATIC WAY.

EMC HAS BEEN MONITORING THE MODEL SUITE RUNNING ON THE NEW
COMPUTER AND RESULTS HAVE SHOWN THAT THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE
DIFFERENCE IN SKILL SCORE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED SINCE THE MODELING SUITE HAS NOT CHANGED.

$$
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Very ragged looking. Its going to take another day at least, for this to look impressive again.

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TD2 still has a little ways to go before its named, look at very ragged, altough it looks pretty good on visible its mostly low level clouds and outflow.
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1242. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Chicklit: Fe... oh nevermind =P
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I saw that too. I didn't click it.



i clicked it and my computer is fine
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The models continue to trend south

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1233. Weather456 7:11 PM GMT on August 11, 2009
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Well that looks familiar.




wow, and double wow cuz the GFS is showing the same thing. wierd


uh-oh...that's not good...
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We're not going to mention the F-Hurricane (that ends in x) at this juncture.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 14:40:41 N Lon : 30:16:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.7 3.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 0.0mb

Center Temp : -8.8C Cloud Region Temp : -31.5C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.19^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


shit
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Quoting Weather456:


wow, and double wow cuz the GFS is showing the same thing. wierd


My bad...

That was the 00z run. Too many tabs open.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
In all seriousness...

What does it look like for the GOM this year? I know the waters are HOT!!! - Since it is getting closer to peak season, is anyone seeing anything that would indicate a storm in the Gulf? A possible Major storm?

It is WAAAAAAAAAAAY too far out to be guessing on whether a major will make it into the gulf, or form in the gulf.

Are you asking this in order to get prepared or something? Because if so... you should already be prepared. Personally, I have my hurricane kit *done* by June 1 each year.
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It's the bright red blob at the southern end of the Lesser Antilles.

(And there is no link posted at the bottom of this picture!)
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Well that looks familiar.



wow, and double wow cuz the GFS is showing the same thing. wierd
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Chicklit:
I just went back and checked #1069 when Rita Evac said a link popped up that he didn't post.
The properties said something about "Georgia" "monument" and "genocide."
That should definitely be reported.


I saw that too. I didn't click it.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

TS ANA by 5pm


No.
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I just went back and checked #1069 when Rita Evac said a link popped up that he didn't post.
The properties said something about "Georgia" "monument" and "genocide."
That should definitely be reported.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 14:40:41 N Lon : 30:16:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.7 3.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -8.8C Cloud Region Temp : -31.5C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.19^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Almost Ana. Just needs to rise 0.2 points.

TS ANA by 5pm
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Almost Ana. Just needs to rise 0.2 points.


The other estimates are much lower. Also, the TD still looks ragged. If it can pull off another good dmax last night it will be Ana. Just not yet.
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Wow! Check out the 12Z Euro.

Photobucket
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Quoting Vortex95:
456 in your opinion could Ana form within 12 hours?


24 hrs seems more reasoanble, given the sat presentation.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1217. Chicklit 7:06 PM GMT on August 11, 2009
The Little Blob at 62 in the SE Caribbean is looking better developed this afternoon.


yep..been watching it myself..
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.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 14:40:14 N Lon : 30:10:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1006.6mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.3 2.7 3.0


Almost Ana. Just needs to rise 0.2 points.
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Quoting Vortex95:
Ur calling it Ana already?


It seems most people on here are already calling it that.
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If you look at rita evacs link she was talking about it looks suspicious. So please look at link before clicking it seems to be targeting some of the senior people here. Post 1069 maybe this should be sent to admin.
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The Little Blob at 62 in the SE Caribbean is looking better developed this afternoon.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Development of the other wave begins, in 48 hrs and by 72 hrs, we have a new tropical storm. Meanwhile, TD 2 is just to the NW, on a more southerly track

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1215. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Hi
What does ECFL stand for? thanks.


East Central Florida..

Look at that~ KMLB mentions it in their forecast even..

WED NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ARE IN
STORE FOR FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE EAST COAST TROUGH. BERMUDA HIGH RESPONDS
ACCORDINGLY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLELING THE
COAST WHICH WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE BEACHES THU AND
FRI. GFS FORECASTS A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE INTO AREA
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF FORECASTS THE INCREASED MOISTURE BAND BUT HARD
TO SEE WAVE IN SURFACE PRESSURE.
THE CURRENT 50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SATURDAY STILL LOOK GOOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN LATER
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. NO REASON TO
DEPART MUCH FROM MOS TEMP GUIDANCE.

&&

Oh & this is kinda odd at the bottom of MLB discussion..

SHORT TERM/MARINE...REYNES AS MLB BACKUP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NOAH AS MLB BACKUP

Thes two don't work there. My office doesn't have the swine flu or worse...dum dum dum dum..the WU flu does it?



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1213. IKE
Quoting futuremet:
12Z ECMWF takes Ana farther south

Bye, I'm out...bee back in 4hrs


Has trended slightly further north on the blob coming off Africa. Looks like an east coast event on this run.

Has TD2 weaker then the GOM low on the end of the run and getting swept north, east of the USA and dying.

Takes the wave at 53W into the GOM and makes landfall along the north-central/NE GOM coast. Stronger on this run.
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A comparative view of TD 2 and the tropical wave to the SE

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Hmmmm....The 12utc GFS seems to show TD2 or some other disturbance heading through the straights of Florida and intensifying around August 23rd. TD2 has the potential to take the storm track the 12utc GFS shows because the trough moving into the northeast Atlantic may be to shallow to steer the storm northward and out to sea. Shear looks to be low and dry air will lessen west of the 50W line and in between the 15N and 25N parellels. Water temps will also be warm in this area, around 85F. If TD2 is able to track into this area, it has the potential for development, but it's quite a ways off to know for sure.
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Hey. IF TD2 does nothing else, it'll serve as a path moistener for that much anticipated African wave.


Yup
Quoting slavp:
East Coast of Florida


Ok, thanks.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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