TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting Seflhurricane:
DMAX is Approaching TD 2 Lets wait and see what happens later tonight


DMIN is in about an hour, DMAX is not for another 12 hours
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


18z

storm chaser looks like a slight shift to the north????
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pipelines - new mail.
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1303. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:




That's what I'm talking about...
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I'm afraid to click on links in here right now. Did you get your 'puter fixed Drakoen?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting Seflhurricane:
have the new model runs comeout for TD 2 yet


18z

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Quoting P451:
VIS Loop, 3.5hrs, ending 1845Z





WV Loop, 3.5hrs, ending 1845Z


DMAX is Approaching TD 2 Lets wait and see what happens later tonight
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1299. Patrap


Tropical Atlantic,2 Sept 08

The Image is now available as I m still remembering the http prefix encoding is enabled on this Laptop..sorry for the inconvenience.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

what I can see not a drop of rain here and yes it is reminding me of 04

No rain Brac S Side - but threatening clouds all around - soon come
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In spite of all the exiting talks, it looks like another day will pass @ 0, 0, 0, with no immanent areas to discuss. We'll see what TD2 looks like in the morning.
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Quoting mrnicktou:


Whats DMAX mean?


In simple terms...

Thunderstorms develop at about 2am-3am with disturbances.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


No. It needs a good DMAX then we could see strengthening.
whats up stormchaser
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Quoting stormpetrol:
1227. wunderkidcayman

Nice rain in South Sound now, How about West Bay? Ana maybe within 18 hours and Bill within 48 hrs and only God knows how many more in short time, this is starting to remind of 2004 all over again. That wave that just came off Africa looks like one serious dude.

please do not say 2004. i live in east central florida.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
Quoting Drakoen:


That's interesting. Thanks for always keeping up to date with the models and their upgrades


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have the new model runs comeout for TD 2 yet
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
does it look like tropical depression 2 will be upgraded to TS Ana Later today ?????


No. It needs a good DMAX then we could see strengthening.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
does it look like tropical depression 2 will be upgraded to TS Ana Later today ?????


Probably not till tomorrow.
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afternoon...

Just saw the 12z GFS wants another 1926 miami cane,thankfully its long range BUT things could get interesting with this new cape verde wave currently at a nice latitude.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


We'll see what happens during DMAX.

It actually looks very similar to the way it did last night.


Whats DMAX mean?
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1284. ssmate
If any of these systems get into the Gulf gas prices are goin....Nevermind, too early for this.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
1227. wunderkidcayman

Nice rain in South Sound now, How about West Bay? Ana maybe within 18 hours and Bill within 48 hrs and only God knows how many more in short time, this is starting to remind of 2004 all over again. That wave that just came off Africa looks like one serious dude.

what I can see not a drop of rain here and yes it is reminding me of 04
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does it look like tropical depression 2 will be upgraded to TS Ana Later today ?????
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Quoting pipelines:


Reported

When the tropics are active keep talk to relevant subjects, making fun of someones avatar isn't tolerated regardless of activity.


Thank you.
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That Blob you refer to is/was overhead, ...over _my_ head that is! Thunder was loud and rolling a couple of hours ago, heavy rain for a while, reminded me a bit of when Felix was "born" near here (Grenada), and Wilma! Emily, of course, was already Cat.1 by the time she arrived. Not looking forward to next week Wednesday(GFS-wise)! :-/
Calm and overcast as I look out of the window.
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1279. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


TS Etau, TS Maka, and Invest 92W on one imagery
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1278. Patrap
GOES-Full Disk,tropical Atlantic,1 Sept 08
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
1270. TheCaneWhisperer 7:22 PM GMT on August 11, 2009
Quoting Nolehead:
1250. TheCaneWhisperer

LOL!!! the season motto for sure....



Planning ahead. Been through 6 of them now and well, ya just know.


I sure hear ya there...
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
poor WU can't handle making a cyclone map track for a system crossing the international dateline, hehe
Tropical cyclones find it easier to cross the dateline than WU does. ;^)
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1275. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes, they have been installing and checking it out most of this year. Upgrades to various models have been on hold most of the year while they have been doing it.


That's interesting. Thanks for always keeping up to date with the models and their upgrades
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Looks like when that large area of convection over Africa reaches the "Bill" wave, the interaction should cause it begin to organize.

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Quoting stormpetrol:
1227. wunderkidcayman

Nice rain in South Sound now, How about West Bay? Ana maybe within 18 hours and Bill within 48 hrs and only God knows how many more in short time, this is starting to remind of 2004 all over again. That wave that just came off Africa looks like one serious dude.



Kind of makes TD2 look rather insignificant, lol.
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1272. Patrap
Stratus NHC,info Listings google,secured Link as proofread
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
The blob at 62 is a disorganized wave, that has minor convection burst here and there.
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Quoting Nolehead:
1250. TheCaneWhisperer

LOL!!! the season motto for sure....



Planning ahead. Been through 6 of them now and well, ya just know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1227. wunderkidcayman

Nice rain in South Sound now, How about West Bay? Ana maybe within 18 hours and Bill within 48 hrs and only God knows how many more in short time, this is starting to remind of 2004 all over again. That wave that just came off Africa looks like one serious dude.
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Quoting Weather456:
The models continue to trend south



Can I please have a link to the homepage to that site?
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1267. slavp
Quoting LouisianaWoman:
As a resident of Louisiana, and survivor of both Rita and Ike's horrible wraths...let me just say that I hope both of those bad boys stay OUT of the GOM. I still have the videos from both as water filled up 7 feet for Rita on my street, and 5 feet for Ike. Odd when the day before we were driving cars down the road and the day after had to drive a boat down it. It serves as a reminder to us that no storm, no matter the size, should ever be under estimated.
I know the feeling Louisiana Woman...Well said
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Typical Blog Postings When Tropical Activity is Occurring.

1) When there is yet to be an invest

a. "{Next Storm Name} is going to hit Florida!"
b. "This one's a fish."
c. "How can you give it a name? It's not even an invest!"
d. "Looks like it's going to be a Cat V!"


2) When there is an invest

a. "{Next Storm Name} is going to hit Florida!"
b. "This one's a fish."
c. "How can you give it a name? It's only an invest!"
d. "Looks like it's going to be a Cat V!"

and on and on...


Remember that word isn't allowed here.
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what would we ever do without TWC wonderful comercials??
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Quoting Drakoen:
New Supercomputer?


Yes, they have been installing and checking it out most of this year. Upgrades to various models have been on hold most of the year while they have been doing it.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Isn't that what was said yesterday?


We'll see what happens during DMAX.

It actually looks very similar to the way it did last night.
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1262. NEwxguy
1250. TheCaneWhisperer

Rofl
Its hurricane season,one should have a large supply handy.
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Quoting jeffs713:

It is WAAAAAAAAAAAY too far out to be guessing on whether a major will make it into the gulf, or form in the gulf.

Are you asking this in order to get prepared or something? Because if so... you should already be prepared. Personally, I have my hurricane kit *done* by June 1 each year.


No, not really. Just kinda wondering if this is going to be a east coast year or if things are setting up for the GOM too.
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Quoting Chicklit:
456 what is your take on the blob at around 62?


From my blog, I'm more interested in 50W, which is also discuss in my blog.

There are a few other areas of interest out there, the first being a tropical wave entering the Eastern Caribbean. This tropical wave brought heavy squalls as it cross the Southern Antilles yesterday and is now continuing west. I do not expect much from this area over the next 24 hrs.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1250. TheCaneWhisperer

LOL!!! the season motto for sure....
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Very ragged looking. Its going to take another day at least, for this to look impressive again.



Isn't that what was said yesterday?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
As a resident of Louisiana, and survivor of both Rita and Ike's horrible wraths...let me just say that I hope both of those bad boys stay OUT of the GOM. I still have the videos from both as water filled up 7 feet for Rita on my street, and 5 feet for Ike. Odd when the day before we were driving cars down the road and the day after had to drive a boat down it. It serves as a reminder to us that no storm, no matter the size, should ever be under estimated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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