TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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i wonder if weatherstudent is in school
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Quoting srada:


Thanks for the info! I will definetly read his blog


You'r welcome.
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Just in case anyone didn't see.
12/1145 UTC 14.3N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 02L

We should have Ana, just waiting to 11.
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Thanks Ike
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think Stormw mentioned this in his blog today.

From StormW's blog:
We may want to watch off the SEUS coast during this upcoming week, as a trof spilt is forecast, and we could have a piece of energy stall of the SEUS coast
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Morning all!

The wave coming off the coast behind TD2 is HUGE. lol
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3549. srada
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think Stormw mentioned this in his blog today.


Thanks for the info! I will definetly read his blog
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Quoting KimberlyB:
Morning everyone.

Could someone please tell me when DMax and Dmin takes place?

Dmax is night and Dmin is day
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3547. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
911

WHXX01 KWBC 121238

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1238 UTC WED AUG 12 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090812 1200 090813 0000 090813 1200 090814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.4N 33.3W 14.7N 35.2W 15.1N 37.8W 15.9N 40.6W

BAMD 14.4N 33.3W 14.8N 35.7W 15.3N 38.4W 16.2N 41.2W

BAMM 14.4N 33.3W 14.9N 35.3W 15.4N 37.7W 16.2N 40.3W

LBAR 14.4N 33.3W 14.8N 35.6W 15.2N 38.4W 16.1N 41.4W

SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 42KTS

DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090814 1200 090815 1200 090816 1200 090817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.6N 43.7W 18.6N 50.6W 21.8N 57.8W 25.5N 63.3W

BAMD 17.1N 43.9W 19.3N 48.9W 22.0N 53.9W 25.3N 57.1W

BAMM 16.9N 43.0W 18.8N 49.1W 21.5N 55.7W 25.1N 60.8W

LBAR 17.0N 44.3W 19.5N 49.9W 23.0N 54.9W 27.2N 59.3W

SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 49KTS 48KTS

DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 49KTS 48KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 33.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 31.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 29.0W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
02LTWO.30kts-1006mb-144N-333W.100pc.jpg | A little jog to the south looks like. How will this affect the path. Chances for it to enter the Caribbean please, anyone ?


It's there, it's moving west, and it's in 14N35W approx... typically a system that far out that north goes up to the north atlantic.

notice "typically"
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Good Morning everyone. I really hope nothing gets into the GOM. We really don't need that. I mean last year it was detestation in TX. And then before that Katrina,Wilma,Rita and so on.

Sheri
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i think by td2 not developing as fast it will go farther west i think a gom track is more reasonable
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Quoting srada:
Good Morning Everyone,

there is currently a low pressure sitting over NC..when this moves off land..does this have the potential to become tropical?

and if it does..could this play a part in TD2 track?


I think Stormw mentioned this in his blog today.
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3542. MahFL
For those people who keep saying the COC is displaced east, thats wrong, the convection is displaced west due to easterly shear of about 15 knots. The center of system is the center of circulation, not necessarly the deep convection.
When shear is low they will both line up and you get a stronger system, most of the time....
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I vote yes..t.s. ana by 11
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3539. ackee
quick vote who thinks we see TSAna by 11pm
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02LTWO.30kts-1006mb-144N-333W.100pc.jpg | A little jog to the south looks like. How will this affect the path. Chances for it to enter the Caribbean please, anyone ?
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3537. slavp
Quoting AussieStorm:

Go to Los Angeles
Just be prepared for earthquakes
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Morning everyone.

Could someone please tell me when DMax and Dmin takes place?
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3535. IKE
Quoting alaina1085:


Ike do you really think something will spin up? Seems it would have to do some rapid intensification to do so. I know SST's are oober warm in GOM now, how is the shear forcast to be?


It could in the GOM.

CMC...GFS...UKMET show something. CMC is aggressive...GFS and UKMET aren't as much.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting RitaEvac:
CMC has hurricane hitting Louisiana



Any more models jumpin on this band wagon? I dont doubt it could happen, but im just curious.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting Adjuster13:
Good Morning Weather Geeks!: My first post on here is in the form of a question. I am a Cat Adjuster and based on all the different information out there, where do I need to pack the motor home to go to for Ana or Bill?

Go to Los Angeles
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3532. IKE
Quoting claimsadjuster:
Ike, I know it is to far out but what is your gut feeling as far as where this one will head?(G.O.M or eastern seaboard)


I think it's 50-50...ECMWF camp is further west. GFS curves it.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3531. srada
Good Morning Everyone,

there is currently a low pressure sitting over NC..when this moves off land..does this have the potential to become tropical?

and if it does..could this play a part in TD2 track?
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Houston NWS...

LONG RANGE MODELS PICKING UP ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE CUBA/
FLORIDA STRAITS NEXT FRIDAY. 0Z CANADIAN WANTING TO DEVELOP AND
TAKE A WEAK STORM INTO SABINE BY MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW WITH THIS SOLUTION SINCE 12Z HAD NO
SIGN OF THIS FEATURE. GETTING INTO THAT TIME OF YEAR...NHC HAS LOW
PROB OF FORMATION WITH THE TWO WAVES OVER LESSER ANTILLES WHILE
CURVING TD #2 AS A WEAK TS TOWARDS BERMUDA. 31

Ummm. What 12Z? Is todays out already? The CMC I was watching before yesterday had this low on it for days. It just showed up on the short range CMC yesterday. By Sabine, I think he means Sabine Pass?
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so in about 7 days is when showdown begins with these storms either hit or miss
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Quoting RitaEvac:
CMC has hurricane hitting Louisiana


thats what left of the wave currently around 55 ish
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Quoting IKE:


Champagne is on ice.....0-0-0 is about over.

Unfortunately.

Wave moving through the islands now. It's heading WNW toward the GOM/bath water.


Ike do you really think something will spin up? Seems it would have to do some rapid intensification to do so. I know SST's are oober warm in GOM now, how is the shear forcast to be?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
CMC has hurricane hitting Louisiana

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3525. srada
Good Morning Everyone,

there is currently a low pressure sitting over NC..when this moves off land..does this have the potential to become tropical?
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3524. slavp
Quoting IKE:


Champagne is on ice.....0-0-0 is about over.

Unfortunately.

Wave moving through the islands now. It's heading WNW toward the GOM/bath water.
Looks to be coming off of the Yucatan...As long as the other models don't start picking up on it we're alright.....I Hope...Lol
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Ike, I know it is to far out but what is your gut feeling as far as where this one will head?(G.O.M or eastern seaboard)
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Quoting IKE:


Champagne is on ice.....0-0-0 is about over.

Unfortunately.

Wave moving through the islands now. It's heading WNW toward the GOM/bath water.


How strong does the model have it? Texas could use a drought-buster.
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Quoting IKE:


Champagne is on ice.....0-0-0 is about over.

Unfortunately.

Wave moving through the islands now. It's heading WNW toward the GOM/bath water.
thanks
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@3484
Quoting IKE:

Remarkable is the well synchron distance between those 3 "Spots".
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3519. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:
Final moments of the 0,0,0 2009 Hurricane Season condition are now winding down... {sniff...}

It was way cool while it lasted! :)


Champagne is on ice.....0-0-0 is about over.

Unfortunately.
Quoting heliluv2trac:
what is the cmc showing hitting tx in 6 days storm


Wave moving through the islands now. It's heading WNW toward the GOM/bath water.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
what is the cmc showing hitting tx in 6 days storm
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3517. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


latest vis 1215 utc
02L/TD/A
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Quoting alaina1085:
Morning all.

See I didnt miss much last night.

How is everyone? Whats everyone thinking?

Good Evening Alaina.
Great update as always StormW
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Final moments of the 0,0,0 2009 Hurricane Season condition are now winding down... {sniff...}

It was way cool while it lasted! :)

It looks like it might go to
2,1,1 in a week or so. ;)
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Did I miss a meteor show on a totally clear night by spending it refreshing screens for the NHC and Navy NRL?

OMG...


in trekkie fashion: "you are not alone"
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Final moments of the 0,0,0 2009 Hurricane Season condition are now winding down... {sniff...}

It was way cool while it lasted! :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
Quoting StormW:


I'm on my way out the door...however I think what you may be referring to is...WU has the GFSX...extended range model which goes out to like 14-16 days.


Thanks SW! I'll check back later. Have a great day all!
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3510. FMDawg
I have a little off topic question. What are these "waves coming off Africa" doing while they are over Africa? Is it just their rainy season and these are just constant torrential downpours? Sorry in advance if this is a stupid question.
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Quoting mikatnight:
Looks to me like the NHC has moved the track to the left three times so far...


"business as usual" or BAU
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Oh well. Time to continue on with storm preparations for the house/yard. Check back w/ya'll later...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




very nice anim!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.