TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting StormChaser81:


Look at this view, pretty impressive to that many storm around the world.


Atlantic
green ball icon02L.TWO

East Pacific
green ball icon91E.INVEST
green ball icon09E.NINE
green ball icon08E.FELICIA

Central Pacific
green ball icon08C.FELICIA
green ball icon01C.MAKA

West Pacific
green ball icon91W.INVEST
green ball icon10W.ETAU
green ball icon09W.MORAKOT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1505. Patrap
GOM 60 Hour SST Forecast Model,area specific
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 14:41:41 N Lon : 30:33:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 2.9 3.4

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mikatnight:


Ahhh, now I see.
Thanks Aggie, you're a peach.

Have to admit that model is so scary for us in Puerto Rico, brings a monster to our shores... fingers cross for models to be wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I guess someone already posted them, lol. Oh well, now they're up there twice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"...DEPRESSION SHOWING NO SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING YET..."

"Yet" If it keeps doing what it's doing that'll change at the next update IMO.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 619
1500. szqrn1
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


I am 1 block N of the Hard Rock.....yes, the skies are getting darker......the Gulf Coast will be booming soon, maybe it will cool it off for an hr or 2


I am looking out the third story of builing at Cedar Lake and I-10 ..... brace yourself!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
Slamming Hawaii

Huh??? It's a naked swirl...Only the expert surfers out on the N shore today, but they are having fun I am sure.


LOL it was supposed to be a joke, blatant sarcasm of sorts.... but i was hoping someone would reply :P
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1498. flsky
Just took a look at the WU GFS map. VERY scary looking for FL on 8/23. Wow!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey everyone,
Haven't commented on the blog in quite awhile because during downtime I normally just check Dr. Master's reports and lurk a bit. Now that the season is becoming more active, I have some information to share, the latest Intensity Estimates:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009
Time :194500 UTC (3:45 PM EST)
Lat : 14:41:24 N Lon : 30:27:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the discussion:

THEREAFTER...THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE
RIDGE...BUT THE BULK OF THEM LIE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST ON
DAYS 4 AND 5.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BiloxiIsle:

It does look like we are going to get some rain here.
Just got an alert for a sever thunderstorm warning here in Biloxi/Ocean sorings area..looks like it's getting ready to rock n roll
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Probably. At least this wont affect filming for LOST (filmed on the island of Oahu).


Thank goodness...I don't know what I'd do without Lost! :)
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Hah! Just got a notify about the NCEP supercomps.

"FROM: Allan Darling
Deputy Director, NCEP Central Operations (NCO)
SUBJECT: Scheduled Operational Changes and Upgrades


NEW NOAA NWS NCEP SUPERCOMPUTER IMPLEMENTATION UPDATE

As the final test of the new supercomputers, NCEP is planning to disseminate all 12Z cycle products operationally from the new Stratus Supercomputer in Gaithersburg on August 12. If this test goes well we will declare Stratus operational at 18Z on August 12 and NCEP production will remain on Stratus.

Originally, the advertised plan was for the new supercomputers to be declared operational on August 18. However with the anticipated increase in hurricane activity in the Atlantic next week, NCEP NCO has decided to implement the new supercomputer on August 12, if possible, to minimize the effect of the transition on NWS operations. "


So, NCEP 12z models tomorrow will run one at a time and if it works well then the 18z will run on the new supercpu.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
1492. Patrap
ESL Hurricane Page
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
Slamming Hawaii

Huh??? It's a naked swirl...Only the expert surfers out on the N shore today, but they are having fun I am sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mikatnight:


Ahhh, now I see.
Thanks Aggie, you're a peach.

I don't think of myself as all that cheery and sweet. Maybe you could call me a rotten Peach. Or an under-ripened peach. Hmmm, old or young.
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UW-EXPERIMENTAL TC INTENSITY ESTIMATES

ADT (2015Z): CI#2.6 1003.0mb 39kt
SATCON (1500z): MSLP = 1006 hPa MSW=34kt
CIMSS AMSU (1500Z): 1005 hPa 40 kt Bias Corr: 0 (TPC)
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1486. szqrn1
Pat it looks WAY worse out the window!!
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Look at this view, pretty impressive to that many storm around the world.
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NHC went very conservative on this run, 30 mph still.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1483. cg2916
Knew it..
000
WTNT32 KNHC 112038
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...DEPRESSION SHOWING NO SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING YET...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.4 WEST OR ABOUT 400
MILES...645 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 30.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Quoting KYhomeboy:


lol. Not much to wait for....it's probably going to be a non-event


Probably. At least this wont affect filming for LOST (filmed on the island of Oahu).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1481. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 30.4W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
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1480. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
1479. cg2916
It's the same, hasn't changed.
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1478. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Advisory is out (25 knots)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am so tired of hearing people talk about how hot the GOM is. It's not unusual compared to recent years. Plus, as Dr. M mentioned I believe, once you hit a certain temp, there's no evidence that ever higher temps mean ever stronger storms. ::stepping off soapbox::
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Quoting CycloneOz:
August 11, 2009

Most likely our last day at the 0,0,0 condition for the 2009 Hurricane Season.

Cry Havoc and let slip the dogs of war!


LMFAO! You are a riot Oz!

Voice of Beavis:
"I feel an activation coming on!!!"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Kahului, Hawaii (Airport)
Updated: 3 min 22 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
79 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 16 mph from the NNE
Pressure: 29.97 in (Rising)



Still waiting for Felicia...


lol. Not much to wait for....it's probably going to be a non-event
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes

A start is born. Ana?
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And thanks again for #1457...very interesting.
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1472. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
winters the low of Goni should be overland southern China (1003 hPa) low on the map I posted below
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting szqrn1:
I am in Gulfport, Ms and we have some VERY BAD weather about to drop!! Anyone here now from MS coast?

It does look like we are going to get some rain here.
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felicia slamming hawaii


Link
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Afternoon all

Atmo, can you give me that in stupid weather geek terms? Will we get the model run output earlier now or what?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kahului, Hawaii (Airport)
Updated: 3 min 22 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
79 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 16 mph from the NNE
Pressure: 29.97 in (Rising)



Still waiting for Felicia...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:


No problem with good questions, here. Go look at the animation step by step (by hitting the +1) and you will see that GFS does about nothing with our TD2 friend and develops the following wave rather thoroughly.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2009081112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Ani mation


Ahhh, now I see.
Thanks Aggie, you're a peach.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
UH, very common


I meant for the wave to come up that quickly. Living in florida I've seen storms pop up and live an hour or two, then fizzle. I'm wondering if that's what that wave will do
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
err..TD2 getting juiced up around the east side of the COC. Looking better than earlier. I said we wouldn't see TS Ana today. To clarify I meant eastern time not Zulu. I'm not so sure now.
Check Floater 1 IR loop on NHC page.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 619
ha, final goni track, the remnants are now moving north along the coast of china



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1462. szqrn1
I am in Gulfport, Ms and we have some VERY BAD weather about to drop!! Anyone here now from MS coast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Steady Strengthing for TD 2...
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
1460. Patrap
GOES-12 Large Scale WV Loop,Atlantic Basin...reloaded
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
Quoting Seflhurricane:
is that for TD 2

yes
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 194500 UTC
Lat : 14:41:24 N Lon : 30:27:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.6 2.8 3.4


Thats enough for TS status..
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Hah! Just got a notify about the NCEP supercomps.

"FROM: Allan Darling
Deputy Director, NCEP Central Operations (NCO)
SUBJECT: Scheduled Operational Changes and Upgrades


NEW NOAA NWS NCEP SUPERCOMPUTER IMPLEMENTATION UPDATE

As the final test of the new supercomputers, NCEP is planning to disseminate all 12Z cycle products operationally from the new Stratus Supercomputer in Gaithersburg on August 12. If this test goes well we will declare Stratus operational at 18Z on August 12 and NCEP production will remain on Stratus.

Originally, the advertised plan was for the new supercomputers to be declared operational on August 18. However with the anticipated increase in hurricane activity in the Atlantic next week, NCEP NCO has decided to implement the new supercomputer on August 12, if possible, to minimize the effect of the transition on NWS operations. "
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1456. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
METEO France
High Sea Warning

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ( NR 2 ), 1006 NEAR 14.5N 28.5W, MOVING WEST.
EXPECTED TROPICAL STORM NEAR 14.8N 33.6W BY 12 AT 12 UTC,

Outlook
14.9N 35.8W BY 13 AT 00 UTC.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.