TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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The NHC did shift the track a bit west and south, however:
Their last forecast had TD2 crossing the 20N boundary at 50W, and the latest forecast has TD2 crossing the 20N boundary at 52.1W.

On the other hand, however, the NHC has TD2 moving faster from 2PM Sat to 2PM Sun than it has it moving from 2PM Fri to 2PM Sat, which indicates stronger influence from the high to its north, and increasing wind shear..
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Thanks Oz, and the links on that page are always safe and pc friendly ;)
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Quoting IKE:
TWC....Dr. Lyons, just said the low pressure is fixing to emerge off of Africa and that one is more dangerous then TD2 because it's 5 to 6 degrees further south.

He seemed real interested in the future system.


furthur south? Why does that make it more dangerous? Dangerous to the eastern coast I assume?
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Quoting IKE:
TWC....Dr. Lyons, just said the low pressure is fixing to emerge off of Africa and that one is more dangerous then TD2 because it's 5 to 6 degrees further south.

He seemed real interested in the future system.

As he should...I am really impressed with the models and how they develop that system. Time will tell but he is right, it coming out that much farther south makes it that much farther south of the dry air, dust and shear. I just dont buy the huge turn last minute when it gets to the islands. I need to see more before I buy off on that long range forcast.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 14:41:41 N Lon : 30:33:18 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 2.9 3.4


Those are definitely Ana numbers...


The satellite images still show an unimpressive system. Very ragged, minimal convection at this time. Dry air is keeping it from building a solid core. Give it some time...but for now it doesn't warrant getting a name.
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Dr. Lyons TWC.also mention our TD , he said that if it remains weak it will probably affect the northern island otherwise a more northern turn. He also mention the wave off AFrica to be the greatest concern.
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Quoting GPTGUY:
Here on the Mississippi Coast very heavy rain and frequent lightning with that line of thunderstorms recorded 1.40" of rain in 30 min. with my weather station!!

Im about 30 miles east and it is right on the door step. we are about to get rocked. I can tell over in Gulfport you all just ate it pretty good. We got wind warnings out for 60mph.
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1548. IKE
TWC....Dr. Lyons, just said the low pressure is fixing to emerge off of Africa and that one is more dangerous then TD2 because it's 5 to 6 degrees further south.

He seemed real interested in the future system.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
And...many of you have this page in your top-5 bookmarks...but for those of you who do not...

Lookey what I stumbled on! :)

http://www.stormjunkie.com/qcklnk.php

This page has everything! Including the models!
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Lyon's the most concerned I've seen him all season, talking about the wave coming off Africa...
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Great to see you Flood (Aka Jerry)

You know if you'd come back for one last show on behalf of Portlight, we could do a whole lot of good :~)
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1543. Drakoen
I'm really interested in what the new supercomputers will do
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Good afternoon wunderground blog-

TD2 is putting a hell of a fight. If it did not have such a closed circulation, the thing would had most certainly dissipated by now. And the eastern atlantic needs to be more favorable for tropical development if pre Bill is to develop. A system that thrives during DMAX and nearly dissipates during DMIN means that it is on the precipice of life or death. Pre Ana, TD 2, lets see what happens in the next couple of days.
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 14:41:41 N Lon : 30:33:18 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 2.9 3.4


Those are definitely Ana numbers...
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1540. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
1539. Drakoen
Quoting atmoaggie:

Once the new machine's output is declared operational, I am certain that the old machine will still be run in a redundant fashion for some time to come. I cannot imagine NCEP not having the other one in an entirely redundant fashion should Stratus have any issue in the near future...always a possibility with new hardware. I have seen IB switches that work for a couple of months only, daughter cards that do the same, compiler-specific problems that only crop up when certain values are calculated, etc.


Isn't it two models? Stratus and Cirrus?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Quoting szqrn1:
Pat it looks WAY worse out the window!!

You sure about that. What if your sky were beet-red like the radar? That would bother me.
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I warned all of you about 3 days ago and said the models were going to track it farter south each day. Just look at what the GFS did. Now I think the forecasted track isnt to bad. A lot of the models are finally matching the ensembles. I think TD2 will brush the east coast most likely but the wave behind that, i am not a fan for such a drastic "right turn" as the models show it now.
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Remember that that the models continue to shift slightly south... dont even try to call it yet
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1535. sky1989
Quoting StormChaser81:
TD 2 is going to be a fish storm, heading to sea. Meeting its marker which will be strong shear.


I would not say that yet. Even if this does recurve, Bermuda is still out there. It is way to early to determine exactly what will happen. Even the most minor deviation from track or intensity could make a thousand miles of difference in the end.
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1534. GPTGUY
Here on the Mississippi Coast very heavy rain and frequent lightning with that line of thunderstorms recorded 1.40" of rain in 30 min. with my weather station!!
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Quoting weathersp:


So, NCEP 12z models tomorrow will run one at a time and if it works well then the 18z will run on the new supercpu.

Once the new machine's output is declared operational, I am certain that the old machine will still be run in a redundant fashion for some time to come. I cannot imagine NCEP not having the other one in an entirely redundant fashion should Stratus have any issue in the near future...always a possibility with new hardware. I have seen IB switches that work for a couple of months only, daughter cards that do the same, compiler-specific problems that only crop up when certain values are calculated, etc.
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1531. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1516. StormChaser81 8:47 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

*cough* Bermuda
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Im sticking with the NHC, the GFS is the only model that would put land anywhere near TD2. The rest are putting it out to sea.
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Quoting extreme236:


Not saying much since there have only been 2.


That was is 09E....
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Quoting Weatherkid27:
Forecasted Track for TD2



Still can't say whether or not it's going to recurve, although it seems like the most likely scenario given the position of the B-High.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not according to the new models. They shifted south. Don't make calls this early.


it's weak so its going to go almost due west. big threat to northern islands.
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Chicklit and SJ, how are you? Got a few mionutes between assignments and thought I'd look in again...
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Thanks atmo, and thanks to that little birdy!

Yep tomorrow me and Docndswamp share a birthday...

Leo, explains a lot huh?

With the tropics active, I am sure I will be around.
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1524. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES
AND OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS SECOND...STRONGER AND MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ALONG 53 WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY SHARP DRYING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. MOISTURE
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL AGAIN INTERACT
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...
TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER LOCALLY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

THEREAFTER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM TPC/NHC ON THIS SYSTEM.
IN ADDITION...WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICAL WAVE
BEHIND IT...AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
INTERESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A REMINDER...IT IS AUGUST AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY A
TIME WHEN THE TROPICS BECOME MORE ACTIVE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY...AS WE
APPROACH THE MORE ACTIVE PART OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Lamest TD of the year.


Not saying much since there have only been 2.
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I'm sure many of you already have this link in your top 5 bookmarks...but for those of you who do not...

Lookey what I just stumbled onto! :)

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29

One stop shopping for imagery and maps. The only thing missing is the models!
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Slamming Hawaii

Huh??? It's a naked swirl...Only the expert surfers out on the N shore today, but they are having fun I am sure.

Right, more like "brushing lightly against Hawaii."
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Forecasted Track for TD2

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Quoting StormChaser81:
TD 2 is going to be a fish storm, heading to sea. Meeting its marker which will be strong shear.


Not according to the new models. They shifted south. Don't make calls this early.
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Lamest TD of the year.
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my grass is almost knee high haha. Every chance I have gotten we just keep getting dumped on. I was hoping this is short lived and doesnt leave much water but after look at radar, I think I am giving up on hope to cut the grass today.
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TD 2 is going to be a fish storm, heading to sea. Meeting its marker which will be strong shear.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all

Atmo, can you give me that it stupid weather geek terms? Will we get the model run output earlier now or what?

If so, not likely by more than a few minutes. Just a little bit younger hardware, if I am reading right...I think.
I need to do a little more digging to answer that better, though.

I hear you are getting older. You'll never find it on accident but a little birdie, that happens to be an old pirate-in-a-dress, told us you were having a B-day. Happy B-day, should we not see ya tomorrow.
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In case anyone's interested, this is to a satellite loop from the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD). They also superimpose the latest NHC forcast track on it (see it move back and forth with time).
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/satfloat.html
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1513. Prgal
Taino...I hope you are right. Keeping my fingers crossed also.
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was headed out to cut the grass too and then this came up...just got done delivering the mail in all of this horrible heat. Hope it cools things down a little
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Probably. At least this wont affect filming for LOST (filmed on the island of Oahu).


Maybe they can use the tropical storm as a ploy for the resurrection of Juliette!

Sorry back to weather. Felicia looking like quite the shell of her former self now...
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 14:41:41 N Lon : 30:33:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 2.9 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -12.3C Cloud Region Temp : -30.1C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Note: The Center and Cloud Temp. indicates still potencial to up at same level
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1509. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP092009
21:00 PM UTC August 11 2009
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Nine-E (1006 hPa) located at 15.1N 128.8W or 1170 NM west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 15.0N 132.3W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
NHC went very conservative on this run, 30 mph still.


Not really. TAFB and SAB at T1.5 support 25kts.
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Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Just got an alert for a sever thunderstorm warning here in Biloxi/Ocean sorings area..looks like it's getting ready to rock n roll

Yea I am right now the street and it is dark over the house. I really need to cut my grass but it wont stop raining.
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Quoting StormChaser81:


Look at this view, pretty impressive to that many storm around the world.


Atlantic
green ball icon02L.TWO

East Pacific
green ball icon91E.INVEST
green ball icon09E.NINE
green ball icon08E.FELICIA

Central Pacific
green ball icon08C.FELICIA
green ball icon01C.MAKA

West Pacific
green ball icon91W.INVEST
green ball icon10W.ETAU
green ball icon09W.MORAKOT
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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