TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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Quoting Elena85Vet:


Not so fast KY homeboy. The 20:15Z image shows what the NHC considers the COC coordinates directly under the latest burst of convection. It has lacked this feature all day. TD2 could be TS Ana yet tonight eastern time.


That convective burst over the center is not established. It may persist for an extended period, or the cloud tops may warm within a few hours. We don't know yet...and the NHC wants to see consistency. When it begins developing a CDO feature or some decent and persistent convective bands, then I'll rethink it.
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thanks GPTGUY..it is looking a little better for me so far
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 14:35:57 N Lon : 30:21:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 2.9 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -12.5C Cloud Region Temp : -25.4C

Are numbers of TS just NHC dont want to named until 100% TS stay solid.

Noted latitud is down south 0.5º from last.
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"Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We have just finished analyzing the new data and can say with confidence that TD 2 will not enter the Gulf. It may brush the Carolinas but is more likely to recurve near Bermuda. We see no other thrats in the Atlantic. Our long term prediction continues to point to a slow season with NO hurricanes entering the GOM. These forecasts are offered Free to the public as an alternative to the gloom and doom forecasts of the wishcasting crowd."

Granted...I am new here. But I don't see how anyone could say that there will be NO hurricanes in the GOM this year. I realize there may not be many or so,but to say None....hmmmmm
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We have just finished analyzing the new data and can say with confidence that TD 2 will not enter the Gulf. It may brush the Carolinas but is more likely to recurve near Bermuda. We see no other thrats in the Atlantic. Our long term prediction continues to point to a slow season with NO hurricanes entering the GOM. These forecasts are offered Free to the public as an alternative to the gloom and doom forecasts of the wishcasting crowd.



LOL no wonder your comments are hidden. Thanks for wasting my time. Took you 2 days to figure out this wasnt going to go in the gulf? And it still could, if it stays weak. Way too far out to predict accurately.
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1601. GPTGUY
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
I'm just south of I-10 in the St. Martin area


Looks like your gonna miss out on the worst of it...looks on radar its gonna miss you to your north, say from Latimer north.
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Quoting Floodman:


Dob, it happens every year; there tends to be a fair amount of "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" that goes on in here


O yeah, I know. Just vainly trying to bring in a little reason. I wish they would put error bars on those long range GFS predictions...by day 10 they would cover the whole map.
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Quoting IKE:
Buoy at 14.5N and 53W....Link Near the wave at 53W....

"Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.5 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.9 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 90.1 °F"


That feature is the one I really have my eye on right now. It has very good structure but lacks significant convection at the moment.
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1598. sky1989
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We have just finished analyzing the new data and can say with confidence that TD 2 will not enter the Gulf. It may brush the Carolinas but is more likely to recurve near Bermuda. We see no other thrats in the Atlantic. Our long term prediction continues to point to a slow season with NO hurricanes entering the GOM. These forecasts are offered Free to the public as an alternative to the gloom and doom forecasts of the wishcasting crowd.


I don't believe that for a second. Nobody should be able to predict with confidence something, that can hardly be predicted two weeks in advance, what will happen for the entire 4 months remaining of hurricane season.
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There is bad weather by New Orleans Patrap
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We have just finished analyzing the new data and can say with confidence that TD 2 will not enter the Gulf. It may brush the Carolinas but is more likely to recurve near Bermuda. We see no other thrats in the Atlantic. Our long term prediction continues to point to a slow season with NO hurricanes entering the GOM. These forecasts are offered Free to the public as an alternative to the gloom and doom forecasts of the wishcasting crowd.


So you simply offer forecasts alternative to those that are based on climatology and atmospheric conditions? Good to know.
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I'm just south of I-10 in the St. Martin area
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Quoting KYhomeboy:


The satellite images still show an unimpressive system. Very ragged, minimal convection at this time. Dry air is keeping it from building a solid core. Give it some time...but for now it doesn't warrant getting a name.


Not so fast KY homeboy. The 20:15Z image shows what the NHC considers the COC coordinates directly under the latest burst of convection. It has lacked this feature all day. TD2 could be TS Ana yet tonight eastern time.
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1593. IKE
Quoting Funkadelic:

Where would it turn it? And what storm are you talking about TD2, or the Wave (Bill)?

Thanks in advance! :)


Blob behind TD2.

Not sure where it would turn.
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1592. IKE
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We have just finished analyzing the new data and can say with confidence that TD 2 will not enter the Gulf. It may brush the Carolinas but is more likely to recurve near Bermuda. We see no other thrats in the Atlantic. Our long term prediction continues to point to a slow season with NO hurricanes entering the GOM. These forecasts are offered Free to the public as an alternative to the gloom and doom forecasts of the wishcasting crowd.



Are you blind and deaf?

Oh...it's....thrEats.
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1591. GPTGUY
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
GPTGUY...and that's coming my way???????!!!!!


Yep Biloxigirl been watching it on radar since 2pm...looks to be weakening at least on the southern end as it moves SE
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Quoting jeffs713:

I can't view videos here at work. And... I wouldn't trust accuweather further than I can throw them. Some things they say are right... but some are so horribly far off-base they are almost amusing.


Really.. we tend to like Frank Strait. He has a blog on there. Course, we have kinda "just" got into all this trpoical stuff when Rita came along and I just got on this blog this year.
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1589. NEwxguy
nope,don't see it becoming Ana for another day or two.It's still got a lot of struggling with the dry air,before it can get it's act together.
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1588. IKE
Buoy at 14.5N and 53W....Link Near the wave at 53W....

"Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 5.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.5 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.9 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 90.1 °F"
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GPTGUY...and that's coming my way???????!!!!!
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1585. Patrap
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We have just finished analyzing the new data and can say with confidence that TD 2 will not enter the Gulf. It may brush the Carolinas but is more likely to recurve near Bermuda. We see no other thrats in the Atlantic. Our long term prediction continues to point to a slow season with NO hurricanes entering the GOM. These forecasts are offered Free to the public as an alternative to the gloom and doom forecasts of the wishcasting crowd.



Er..as a NOLA resident,..if you cant Identify who "we",or You are,..your never going to be taken seriously here sport.

We have a few private Met offices here and as Far as I know,..you aint it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636


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1583. GPTGUY
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:
severe t storm warning issued for Harrison County, Ms


Yeah up here in Lyman I had 1.40" of rain in 30 min with constant dangerous lightning...my rain rate/hr. peaked at 7.50"
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my local news just threw tropical depression 2 out the window all they said it shear will tare it apart and it will curve into the middle of the Atlantic.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Take a look at the link on post 1388.
Does mention something about the GOM....

I can't view videos here at work. And... I wouldn't trust accuweather further than I can throw them. Some things they say are right... but some are so horribly far off-base they are almost amusing.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5883
1580. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE MAKA (CP012009)
21:00 PM UTC August 11 2009
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Maka (1008 hPa) located at 14.5N 174.0W or 290 NM southwest of of Johnston Island has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Gale-force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.8N 175.0W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 15.4N 176.7W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.8N 180.0E - 55 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 18.6N 177.6E - 65 knots (SSHS-1 Cyclone)
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1578. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER FELICIA (EP082009)
21:00 PM UTC August 11 2009
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Felicia (1010 hPa) located at 20.6N 154.7W or 105 NM east of of Kahului, Hawaii has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Watches
=======================
Tropical Storm Watch for Oahu and all of Maui county, which includes the islands of Maui, Kahoolawe, Lanai, and Molokai has been cancelled

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
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1577. Patrap
I like that skye,..

weak goes west..,


...strong goes up and along
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
1576. szqrn1
Quoting atmoaggie:

You sure about that. What if your sky were beet-red like the radar? That would bother me.


Yea ya got me there... I would be a little more concerned!
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If anyone is interested in the new computers, and in general the status of NCEP production suite (including future plans):

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/annualreviews/2008Review/index.html

Good presentation by Pasch on NHC and their "wishlist", one of is to modify GFDL for cyclogenesis.
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Quoting rwdobson:


Something that seems to be lost on all the people calling for "andrew 2" from a wave that isn't even an invest yet.


Dob, it happens every year; there tends to be a fair amount of "the sky is falling, the sky is falling" that goes on in here
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


furthur south? Why does that make it more dangerous? Dangerous to the eastern coast I assume?

Far better chance for a CV development to get across the pond at a low enough latitude to be a threat to land.
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Quoting KYhomeboy:


A wave which exits Africa at a lower latitude will likely move due west and isn't as likely to recurve out to sea as a higher latitude storm would be.


ahhhhhh, I got it. Thanks!
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I need to see more before I buy off on that long range forcast.


Need to see more, like, well, like formation of an actual TC would be a good start.
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1569. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting StormChaser81:
Im sticking with the NHC, the GFS is the only model that would put land anywhere near TD2. The rest are putting it out to sea.


I've got to give the gfs a little more wieght than usual here. It seems to pick up the best~ the dance 2 storms will do. Like Felicia & Enrique~ TD2 may have a close sibling that will try & nudge it south. TD2's sibling looks big & like it's going to come off Africa more to the south than TD2 did. I think this is why we see models slinging TD2 a jont south at one point. & like a few days ago I said ( still sticking to it)..not turning into a 'cane quick so weak & west it goes for now..
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1568. IKE
Quoting TexasHurricane:


furthur south? Why does that make it more dangerous? Dangerous to the eastern coast I assume?


And the islands.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


furthur south? Why does that make it more dangerous? Dangerous to the eastern coast I assume?


A wave which exits Africa at a lower latitude will likely move due west and isn't as likely to recurve out to sea as a higher latitude storm would be.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


furthur south? Why does that make it more dangerous? Dangerous to the eastern coast I assume?

It makes it possibly dangerous because it could get into the Caribbean and Gulf and most of the dry air and shear will be north.
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1563. IKE
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

As he should...I am really impressed with the models and how they develop that system. Time will tell but he is right, it coming out that much farther south makes it that much farther south of the dry air, dust and shear. I just dont buy the huge turn last minute when it gets to the islands. I need to see more before I buy off on that long range forcast.


I posted an 8-14 day extended forecast that said....

"8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 19 - 25 2009

TODAYS GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG
TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A RIDGE NEAR THE WESTERN CONUS."......


If that verifies it might turn that system like the latest ECMWF is showing.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Isn't it two models? Stratus and Cirrus?

Uh, those are the machine names.
For example, from the previous email:
"NCEP/NCO IS PLANNING TO DISSEMINATE PRODUCTS OPERATIONALLY FROM CIRRUS AND STRATUS ON THE DATES LISTED BELOW:"...

But I would still expect NCEP to keep the current operation platform completely functional and running for some period of time (if I had a vote it would be for a solid couple of months) even if the data were not operationally disseminated.
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Quoting sky1989:


. Even the most minor deviation from track or intensity could make a thousand miles of difference in the end.


Something that seems to be lost on all the people calling for "andrew 2" from a wave that isn't even an invest yet.
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glad it wasn't doing that in Gulfport while I was delivering the mail earlier..Thank God
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1559. Patrap

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings



Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
1552. Yeah, I know.The numbers look more impressive than the actual system. Pressure is probably marginal but 39kts is TS strength.

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Quoting StormJunkie:
Great to see you Flood (Aka Jerry)

You know if you'd come back for one last show on behalf of Portlight, we could do a whole lot of good :~)


It would be my great pleasure...kinda miss the stage a bit...okay, a LOT

I tend to lurk a bit, but I find a few extra minutes here and there and get to interact with y'all "live" folks
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The NHC did shift the track a bit west and south, however:
Their last forecast had TD2 crossing the 20N boundary at 50W, and the latest forecast has TD2 crossing the 20N boundary at 52.1W.

On the other hand, however, the NHC has TD2 moving faster from 2PM Sat to 2PM Sun than it has it moving from 2PM Fri to 2PM Sat, which indicates stronger influence from the high to its north, and increasing wind shear..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.