TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1656 - 1606

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

I wonder why trolls post here they get no response.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rxse7en:
WHo's "we"? You have a mouse in your pocket?


hes friends with despereaux
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just analyzed all the data available to me and it tells me that Kerry and his people and their data are full of it lol

lol. oh and this forecast is also available for free
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FortBendTX:
hello all...I live in SE Texas. It is interesting...it took IKE coming here last year to get us out of the drought we were in. Now we are in the same situation again, baking in constant 100 degree heat every day which no rainfall. I have talked to some people who are actually hoping for a Tropical event over here again (minus the wind part) just to get us some rain!


I agree. It's not pretty around here. I miss the sound of thunderstorms, too. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1651. rxse7en
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We have just finished analyzing the new data and can say with confidence that TD 2 will not enter the Gulf. It may brush the Carolinas but is more likely to recurve near Bermuda. We see no other thrats in the Atlantic. Our long term prediction continues to point to a slow season with NO hurricanes entering the GOM. These forecasts are offered Free to the public as an alternative to the gloom and doom forecasts of the wishcasting crowd.
WHo's "we"? You have a mouse in your pocket?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have pretty high confidence of td2 making it into bahamas/florida.Also we will likely see the wave behind it being the big,it looked before it would threaten florida but with troughing seeming likely in the east carolinas seem more likely right now,but all of this could change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

cInner Nest code:
c
c
if(inner1.ge.1)then
Try_to_confuse_PcolaDan=.TRUE.
endif

I'm so confuuuuuused. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1648. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:

cInner Nest code:
c
c
if(inner1.ge.1)then
Try_to_confuse_PcolaDan=.TRUE.
endif



Lawyers and mets Lingo..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
1647. sky1989
I hope KerryInNOLA is right. He might be right. I just hope people don't let their guard down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Elena85Vet:
If you want a cool look. Check out the NHC floater 1 visible loop. You can see TD2 blowing dust off to the NW.


Clearing the air for the disturbance coming off Africa behind it? Ruh Roh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
td2 looking a lot more organized

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KYhomeboy:


I agree there are some serious wishcasters on this blog, but thats every season. There are also a few downcasters. Butwhat we need are the REALISTS. The ones who look at data etc and make reasonable conclusions based on scientific facts and personal observations. Neither extreme is good. This hurricane season probably won't be flowers and butterflies for everyone. A group of people, some where, will be adversely affected by a storm. And this season probably won't be a doomsday scenario like some hype it up to be. Realistic bloggers like Kman and Drak are much needed in this blog.
i totally agree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rwdobson:
It's ludicrous to predict no storms entering the gulf this year. There's really no data out there that could support such a prediction.

On the other hand, KerryinNoLa's post isn't even close to the stupidest thing I've ever read in this comment section. Heck, I'm not sure it's the stupidest thing I've read today
i have heard worst in this blog thats nothing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We have just finished analyzing the new data and can say with confidence that TD 2 will not enter the Gulf. It may brush the Carolinas but is more likely to recurve near Bermuda. We see no other thrats in the Atlantic. Our long term prediction continues to point to a slow season with NO hurricanes entering the GOM. These forecasts are offered Free to the public as an alternative to the gloom and doom forecasts of the wishcasting crowd.


I agree there are some serious wishcasters on this blog, but thats every season. There are also a few downcasters. Butwhat we need are the REALISTS. The ones who look at data etc and make reasonable conclusions based on scientific facts and personal observations. Neither extreme is good. This hurricane season probably won't be flowers and butterflies for everyone. A group of people, some where, will be adversely affected by a storm. And this season probably won't be a doomsday scenario like some hype it up to be. Realistic bloggers like Kman and Drak are much needed in this blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I didn't say I was hoping for one! I just wish we would get a couple of thunderstorms every now and then. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
local mets here in se fla just said TD 2 would be apporaching the bahamas sometime late next week, i find it hard to believe that a met would say such a thing so far out in time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's ludicrous to predict no storms entering the gulf this year. There's really no data out there that could support such a prediction.

On the other hand, KerryinNoLa's post isn't even close to the stupidest thing I've ever read in this comment section. Heck, I'm not sure it's the stupidest thing I've read today
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hondaguy:


Thank goodness I wont be going home right after work then.

How bad is it down there, from what I can see from the 3rd story of my building off I12, it's dark that way.


Lost power twice. Small bits of hail, very windy.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
KerryinNola, i bet your right but don't say anything other than there's going to be at least 5 cat 5's in the GOM or you will be lambasted for your prediction
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1635. sky1989
Quoting IKE:


Saying...We see no other thrats in the Atlantic....when there's an active wave at 53W and the huge blob coming off Africa?

I spit some Coke on my keyboard from laughing when I read that.

Handy Wipes!


LOL! I mean no offense, but how could he predict something like that? Nevermind...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you want a cool look. Check out the NHC floater 1 visible loop. You can see TD2 blowing dust off to the NW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1633. slavp
Quoting FortBendTX:
hello all...I live in SE Texas. It is interesting...it took IKE coming here last year to get us out of the drought we were in. Now we are in the same situation again, baking in constant 100 degree heat every day which no rainfall. I have talked to some people who are actually hoping for a Tropical event over here again (minus the wind part) just to get us some rain!
Be careful what you wish for...We did that here in sw la in 2002...Next thing you know a lil ole tropical storm (Allison) dumped 20 inches of rain on us lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


Are you and atmoaggie talking in code???? :)

cInner Nest code:
c
c
if(inner1.ge.1)then
Try_to_confuse_PcolaDan=.TRUE.
endif
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1631. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Troll-!
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We have just finished analyzing the new data and can say with confidence that TD 2 will not enter the Gulf. It may brush the Carolinas but is more likely to recurve near Bermuda. We see no other thrats in the Atlantic. Our long term prediction continues to point to a slow season with NO hurricanes entering the GOM. These forecasts are offered Free to the public as an alternative to the gloom and doom forecasts of the wishcasting crowd.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alaina1085:
Severe thunderstorm warning here in Ascension parish. Headed your way Pat.


Thank goodness I wont be going home right after work then.

How bad is it down there, from what I can see from the 3rd story of my building off I12, it's dark that way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Its the GFDL without the synthetic vortex at initialization. I don't know what they would be doing with the inner nests.


Are you and atmoaggie talking in code???? :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hello all...I live in SE Texas. It is interesting...it took IKE coming here last year to get us out of the drought we were in. Now we are in the same situation again, baking in constant 100 degree heat every day which no rainfall. I have talked to some people who are actually hoping for a Tropical event over here again (minus the wind part) just to get us some rain!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1626. IKE
Quoting iluvjess:
I don't understand why everyone is bashing KerryinNOLa. He is simply stating his prediction as are many others on here. He has not made any statements of false credentials. Let him make his predictions as everyone else does. Time will tell who is the best forecater (guesser). I think many of you are intimidated by his use of the word "we" and his diclosure at the end of his forecast. Don't let this verbage intimidate you, it makes you look childish when you react in such a defensive manor. Let him state his predictions. If he looks stupid in November then so be it.


Saying...We see no other thrats in the Atlantic....when there's an active wave at 53W and the huge blob coming off Africa?

I spit some Coke on my keyboard from laughing when I read that.

Handy Wipes!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting GPTGUY:


Yeah looks like you're gonna miss out on it dweller...heaviest rain missed you to your north and the moderate rain seems to be breaking up as it moves east.
guess I can get out and go cut the grass after all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Severe thunderstorm warning here in Ascension parish. Headed your way Pat.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
1623. sky1989
Quoting Vortex95:
Question: Why is the ADT showing such high numbers?


I've been wondering the exact same thing...I'm glad I'm not the only one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like TD 2 is cranking thunderstorms near the center Looks like we may have Ana late tonight or in the very early morning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

That might be good...then again, it might not be (the GFDL part). I sure hope it has more skill than some of our present models used for that. I cannot watch it now, but am emailing the link to myself for later (that magical time that never seems to happen...somewhat like the mythical someday).


Its the GFDL without the synthetic vortex at initialization. I don't know what they would be doing with the inner nests.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
KerryinNola has earned the distinction of perhaps posting the stupidest thing I have ever read on here. That is quite an achievement.


im gonna draw him up a "you win the internet" award. but not really.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't understand why everyone is bashing KerryinNOLa. He is simply stating his prediction as are many others on here. He has not made any statements of false credentials. Let him make his predictions as everyone else does. Time will tell who is the best forecater (guesser). I think many of you are intimidated by his use of the word "we" and his diclosure at the end of his forecast. Don't let this verbage intimidate you, it makes you look childish when you react in such a defensive manner. Let him state his predictions. If he looks stupid in November then so be it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1617. GPTGUY
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


still no rain 1 block west of city hall in Biloxi


Yeah looks like you're gonna miss out on it dweller...heaviest rain missed you to your north and the moderate rain seems to be breaking up as it moves east.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
KerryinNola has earned the distinction of perhaps posting the stupidest thing I have ever read on here.
That is quite an achievement.
Suitable for the Lifetime Crow Award.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1615. sky1989
Quoting atmoaggie:

The weather ain't nearly as bad as some of the posts coming in from NOLA.


LOL! You are too right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting... Felicia's SW side is getting friction with the land so it it moving SW. Similar to if your front right tire goes onto stones off the shoulder of a road, your whole car will drift that way. Watch this visible loop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1612. IKE
18Z NAM...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1611. GPTGUY
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
thanks GPTGUY..it is looking a little better for me so far


Your welcome Biloxigirl anytime!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman874:
There is bad weather by New Orleans Patrap

The weather ain't nearly as bad as some of the posts coming in from NOLA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
If anyone is interested in the new computers, and in general the status of NCEP production suite (including future plans):

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/annualreviews/2008Review/index.html

Good presentation by Pasch on NHC and their "wishlist", one of is to modify GFDL for cyclogenesis.

That might be good...then again, it might not be (the GFDL part). I sure hope it has more skill than some of our present models used for that. I cannot watch it now, but am emailing the link to myself for later (that magical time that never seems to happen...somewhat like the mythical someday).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Not so fast KY homeboy. The 20:15Z image shows what the NHC considers the COC coordinates directly under the latest burst of convection. It has lacked this feature all day. TD2 could be TS Ana yet tonight eastern time.


That convective burst over the center is not established. It may persist for an extended period, or the cloud tops may warm within a few hours. We don't know yet...and the NHC wants to see consistency. When it begins developing a CDO feature or some decent and persistent convective bands, then I'll rethink it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1656 - 1606

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Thunderstorms and Rain
69 °F
Light Thunderstorm Rain