TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting Patrap:
If someone uses A IMAGE TO LAY A VIRUS,..THEY WILL BE TRACKED BY isp..AND LIKE THE ONES CURRENTLY UNDER THE TRACE,..PROSECUTED TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW.

Yeah, "the fullest extent".. meaning to no extent for most ISPs.
Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340
How is the gfdl anyone I dont like what it does with the wave at 55w and 13n. I wont say what it looks like but I dont like it. Specially with that earlier brilliant forecast for the gulf
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
so we would be talking about the idiot that everyone responded to about there being no threats in the Atlantic and nothing to go into th GOM this season right?

How astute. A very good example.
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1703. Patrap
Quoting leftovers:
problem is if they live overseas



Then well,,I Guess Interpol would have a Few new Warrants.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting atmoaggie:

For some goofy reason, you could track the number of responses to any one comment, look at the top most quoted, and the original poster would likely be a troll. I know it sounds backward. I don't like it either.
so we would be talking about the idiot that everyone responded to about there being no threats in the Atlantic and nothing to go into th GOM this season right?
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1698. Patrap
If someone uses A IMAGE TO LAY A VIRUS,..THEY WILL BE TRACKED BY isp..AND LIKE THE ONES CURRENTLY UNDER THE TRACE,..PROSECUTED TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
new to site...quoting what gordydunnot said earlier...who do you consider to be trolls on this site...just curious..

For some goofy reason, you could track the number of responses to any one comment, look at the top most quoted, and the original poster would likely be a troll. I know it sounds backward. I don't like it either.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


only 2 storms located where TD 2 is now went on to hit the US in this time frame

Galveston hurricane of 1915 and Hurricane Fran in 1996

Excuse my ignorance but do the past starting points of a depression/storm really factor in as much as current season data as El Nino and such? What I mean is, is there actually an area where waves form (besides the obvious off of Africa) that actually have shown to hit the CONUS regardless of season data?
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Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
new to site...quoting what gordydunnot said earlier...who do you consider to be trolls on this site...just curious..

Think you'll learn soon enough.LOL
Fairly new too, so names still escape me at the moment.

p.s. Go Yellow Jackets
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Now, what if someone uses an image to spread a virus? >: WU should simply use a spam protection service like Akismet.
Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340
Quoting rwdobson:
@1682--note that the ones that hit the US were all south of where TD2 is now...


only 2 storms located where TD 2 is now went on to hit the US in this time frame

Galveston hurricane of 1915 and Hurricane Fran in 1996
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new to site...quoting what gordydunnot said earlier...who do you consider to be trolls on this site...just curious..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
The wu-tech dept in Frisco has made the Link Box caution active.

If you all would go Linux, no one would have to click the little "OK"...so the PC terrorists have won.
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1690. IKE
Quoting gordydunnot:
I didnt mean anything personal.Sorry if I gave wrong impression Ike.


Sometimes it's hard to decipher comments on here(tone). I understand what you're saying now.

Sorry if I came across questioning you.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1689. Patrap
Quoting palmpt:
Kerryineworleans is a troll. Where is taz? Did I miss something? I'd love his take on the hurricane-free Gulf prediction.



Taz's computer was infected with the virus Malware and it may be some time before he's back he stated.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting weathersp:
I think its part of the fix...

Look this goes to the NWS homepage...

http://www.weather.gov/


It's good to see they're taking the threat seriously. Bravo
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I didnt mean anything personal.Sorry if I gave wrong impression Ike.
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@1682--note that the ones that hit the US were all south of where TD2 is now...
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1685. WxLogic
Quoting Vortex95:
ADT is really outta whack right now


Well currently TD#2 has some intense storms starting to take shape to the W N and E quadrants depicted by Shortwave Sat imagery... in my eyes TD#2 is ANA already with winds between 40 to 45MPH... unfortunately we don't have a QS pass to validate it... but based on ADT is a minimal TS. Finally, it has been doing quite well at building convection around its center to take care of massive dry air intrusion.
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1684. IKE
Quoting rwdobson:
ike, it seems WU has a little box pop up now when you click on a link...not specific to you, just to any non-WU link.


I see that. I read his post...wasn't sure what he was hinting at. After reading his post again, I understand what he's saying now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1683. Patrap
The wu-tech dept in Frisco has made the Link Box caution active.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting hulakai:
for ya'all statistical buffs: Lotsa storms have passed through the general area of TD2. The great majority went to deep sea. A couple hit Florida, a couple hit the Carolinas, a couple hit Long Island, and one even hit Texas. There is some confluence between the Bahamas and Hatteras, and some about 1200-1500 miles east of Hatteras. The models seem to favor the Sargasso solution. I'll put my money there too.


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The link you clicked is taking you outside of Weather Underground.

Click okay only if you trust this link:

[http://www.weather.gov/]
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1680. Patrap
Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

ReliefWEB,Typhoon Morakot
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
ike, it seems WU has a little box pop up now when you click on a link...not specific to you, just to any non-WU link.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gordydunnot:
Ike its about time the WU put a warning on your link before you click.


Hmm...Must be automatic now. Cool.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think its part of the fix...

Look this goes to the NWS homepage...

http://www.weather.gov/
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
1676. hulakai
for ya'all statistical buffs: Lotsa storms have passed through the general area of TD2. The great majority went to deep sea. A couple hit Florida, a couple hit the Carolinas, a couple hit Long Island, and one even hit Texas. There is some confluence between the Bahamas and Hatteras, and some about 1200-1500 miles east of Hatteras. The models seem to favor the Sargasso solution. I'll put my money there too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1675. IKE
Quoting gordydunnot:
Ike its about time the WU put a warning on your link before you click.


?

I provided a link to computer models.

Link address is provided...[http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/]
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1674. palmpt
Kerryineworleans is a troll. Where is taz? Did I miss something? I'd love his take on the hurricane-free Gulf prediction.
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Ike its about time the WU put a warning on your link before you click.
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1669. IKE
Quoting vince1966:
Can anyone give me a link to the models that show how the exiting African waves will develop, I have seen several comments about them but I cant find any. Thanks


Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting StormW:







I will now have nightmares..lol. I hate clowns.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting StormW:






was waiting to see what your response to that would be Storm...very funny!!!!
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Quoting StormW:







funny...
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 14:36:02 N Lon : 30:26:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.0 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -9.3C Cloud Region Temp : -24.1C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.07^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Can anyone give me a link to the models that show how the exiting African waves will develop, I have seen several comments about them but I cant find any. Thanks
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1662. Patrap
Wet Tourists on Bourbon St.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Clearing the air for the disturbance coming off Africa behind it? Ruh Roh.
I have to second that ruh roh!!
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The GFS 18Z is running... should be an interesting run
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Quoting Vortex95:
Lemme and ask me again: Why are ADT NUMBERS ARE SO HIGH?


Its based on dvorak, Dvorak is based on convection.. It's alot more complicated than that but thats the gist..
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


I agree. It's not pretty around here. I miss the sound of thunderstorms, too. :(

Over here in NW FLS we've been like that for about the last four years. Finally hearing the boomers with frequency this year and not watering lawn hardly at all. Pretty puffy clouds all over too, nice.
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I wonder why trolls post here they get no response.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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