TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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1756. IKE
KerryInNOLA...you may have to eat those words if that wave at 53W gets in the GOM and develops into a cane. Not likely, but it could happen.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting CycloneOz:
OMG...I've started an intervention! :)

All those of you out there, you who started on this blog as a troll...come out and confess and be healed! :)


We need a daytime cable slot!
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sorry, my post # 1745 was directed at KerryinNOLA, not anyone else.
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Quoting Patrap:
As a nola Chef Oz,..by tradition, I'll burl 4,saute 4,..and flash fry 4.

Then someone will have to clean the Kitchen before the Daily Show.


How about those famous NOLA "barbecued" shrimp? When I was down there in March, we had some at Pascal's Manale.

MMMM... my bib was real dirty afterward.
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OMG...I've started an intervention! :)

All those of you out there, you who started on this blog as a troll...come out and confess and be healed! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1749. IKE
18Z GFS puts the wave at 53W in the GOM at 114 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Patrap:
As a nola Chef Oz,..by tradition, I'll burl 4,saute 4,..and flash fry 4.

Then someone will have to clean the Kitchen before the Daily Show.


When's dinner? :P
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Hey savannah can you take out that image and put in a link instaead that image is very large and alot of people cannot load it...
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i think im adding you to my ignore list, as your post was certainly just a post meant to arrouse anger or some other type of response. its apparent that you have NO weather forecasting skills and noone on this site will take you seriously.

your forecast sort of reminds me of Beavis and Butthead, so stupid that its actually funny.
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1744. Skylink
What is this in the Gulf about 400 miles west of Florida, ULL? Link
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1743. WxLogic
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
Can someone post the link for the 18z gfs...TIA


Check... post #1725. Of course 18Z GFS still running so we'll see how "B" is going to behave on this run soon.
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Mobile and north of there turn now.

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Quoting atmoaggie:

Question is: I wonder if they are sure it was a link to an external site that did it. I know some of the AVG installs will stop you from going to a known bad site. What if it was script in an ad server loaded here?
Anyone see a "This is a known malicious scripting web site" notice?


Could this also explain that I was on the second time it happened and I have a non-ad membership and didn't get anything?
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Instead of raking trolls over the coals
I prefer instead to coerce them into pleasant participation.

I think I started out as a troll, but soon realized how very cool this blog was, so I settled down and tried to contribute.

Remember, trolls...especially the creative ones (usually the ones that draw the most ire from us) are people, too. Yeah, they grate on us, but if you can turn into productive members of the blog, then we may get at the least a laugh or two when the post, and at the most...who can say.

I welcome troll posts.

That does not mean I will respond to them saying "Hey...GREAT post!" I choose instead to ignore them for a time and then wait and see what happens. Some go away. But others stay and play and begin to contribute. I could mention one from this summer who is beginning to contribute, but at first...he was a flat out troll that "changed important information."

He's starting to come around as a contributor. Give some of these yahoos a chance to settle down, that's all I'm saying.


I, too, started out as a troll. Some would say I still am one, but I hope I contribute to the conversation.

Here, look at this precipitable water loop:

Link by request
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1739. Patrap
As a nola Chef Oz,..by tradition, I'll burl 4,saute 4,..and flash fry 4.

Then someone will have to clean the Kitchen before the Daily Show.
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Can someone post the link for the 18z gfs...TIA
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1737. Walshy
Never no how far west it could make it until time passes. Prior Ana in 1991.

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Quoting alaina1085:


Pretty sure it was deliberate. That was a pretty nasty virus.


If in fact it came from an ad, a person would have to be a VERY good hacker to accomplish this. That being said, if it was a bogus link, much easier
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Quoting weathersp:
This linking window is starting to get annoying... If people were vigilant we wouldn't have problems.. I applaud WU Tech staff for getting this fix out so quickly but it will significantly impact the speed of the blog and the ability to give out information. Especially during peak times.

I also fear that people will stop using links and resort to images of the links and thus slowing down the blog to all of our fellow international and dial-up members.

Question is: I wonder if they are sure it was a link to an external site that did it. I know some of the AVG installs will stop you from going to a known bad site. What if it was script in an ad server loaded here?
Anyone see a "This is a known malicious scripting web site" notice?
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Quoting Patrap:
White Shrimp Trawling opened yesterday and tonight Im going fer a 12 Lb input to my System.

Results will be posted in the am.


I'm assuming "boiled," right?

I ate 2-pounds last night! :)

You'll be 10 better than me after today! :)
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1733. Patrap
Quoting weathersp:


LOL, please do... and while your at it, wash it down with a few fermented drinks.

Have fun!



That would be the Appropriate Libation for the astute dining experience.

Thanx for the kind reminder,..as I need to make a Miss Daisy run to the Sto..
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No comments on the gfdl model.
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Quoting adjusterx:
We have just re analyzed the data and can say with confidence that
Pat will not be able to eat his weight in shrimp, Drak will have a nuclear
meltdown should another virus arise and there is only a 12.3% chance that
WS will be going to a gentlemen’s club for his b-day this evening.
On a serious note. I got this link from someone on here last year and it is cool
But I am not sure how far of the time frame is will not post the but it is at
atmos.washington.edu They have some neat stuff but wonder how far behind it is
if at all. By the way as OZ posted earlier and I have been using since last year
thanks for all the info on your site SJ.-ster
Opps forgot-Happy B-day JFVWS



HAHAHAHHA
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1730. woodsen
I read that INVEST simply means an area of interest. What I read also sain ones in the Atlantic should be followed by an L, and ones in the Pacific are designated by E,S or N (obviously dependent on the area of the Pacific)

The map has a 9xL that seems to reside in the Pacific. Is there something about its longitude that made it go 'L'. Just curious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Instead of raking trolls over the coals
I prefer instead to coerce them into pleasant participation.

I think I started out as a troll, but soon realized how very cool this blog was, so I settled down and tried to contribute.

Remember, trolls...especially the creative ones (usually the ones that draw the most ire from us) are people, too. Yeah, they grate on us, but if you can turn into productive members of the blog, then we may get at the least a laugh or two when the post, and at the most...who can say.

I welcome troll posts.

That does not mean I will respond to them saying "Hey...GREAT post!" I choose instead to ignore them for a time and then wait and see what happens. Some go away. But others stay and play and begin to contribute. I could mention one from this summer who is beginning to contribute, but at first...he was a flat out troll that "changed important information."

He's starting to come around as a contributor. Give some of these yahoos a chance to settle down, that's all I'm saying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
White Shrimp Trawling opened yesterday and tonight Im going fer a 12 Lb input to my System.

Results will be posted in the am.


LOL, please do... and while your at it, wash it down with a few fermented drinks.

Have fun!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Walshy:
I have a question.

Did the person who posted the link or image deliberately mean for it to have a virus? I know I have posted images but my laptop is virus free.


Pretty sure it was deliberate. That was a pretty nasty virus.
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1726. Patrap
As a student of Observation..Im not a Met,nor ever claimed to be one.


I post relevant info,Links and Images to add to the overall succulence of the topic dujour.



Pltttttttttttttttttttt..................
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1725. WxLogic
18Z GFS continues to show TD#2 being blocked with a more W heading... which should take it N of Greater Antilles and with a pretty decent Bermuda High well established... so far. Of course the output has finished but interesting features to note.
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1724. Walshy
I have a question.

Did the person who posted the link or image deliberately mean for it to have a virus? I know I have posted images but my laptop is virus free.
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Quoting adjusterx:
We have just re analyzed the data and can say with confidence that
Pat will not be able to eat his weight in shrimp, Drak will have a nuclear
meltdown should another virus arise and there is only a 12.3% chance that
WS will be going to a gentlemen’s club for his b-day this evening.

Had to clean screen after this one. Has to be the funniest thing I've ever seen on here. ROFLMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
White Shrimp Trawling opened yesterday and tonight Im going fer a 12 Lb input to my System.

Results will be posted in the am.

Ewwwwwww.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This linking window is starting to get annoying... If people were vigilant we wouldn't have problems.. I applaud WU Tech staff for getting this fix out so quickly but it will significantly impact the speed of the blog and the ability to give out information. Especially during peak times.

I also fear that people will stop using links and resort to images of the links and thus slowing down the blog to all of our fellow international and dial-up members.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SavannahStorm:


Yup, and considering how many people use open WiFi networks for nefarious purposes these days, they'd probably be impossible to track.

People, if you have a WiFi network, PROTECT IT WITH A PASSWORD.

Or even better, build a MAC whitelist and use it.
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1718. Patrap
White Shrimp Trawling opened yesterday and tonight Im going fer a 12 Lb input to my System.

Results will be posted in the am.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1717. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TROPICAL STORM ETAU (T0909)
6:00 AM JST August 12 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Etau (994 hPa) located at 32.2N 146.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving east-southeast at 22 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in south quadrant
60 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 33.3N 152.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 35.4N 154.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 39.1N 160.8E - EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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The yet to be named "Bill" is our top story tonight on local news. They showed TD2 and the models but said the real threat was what's behind it.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


LOL

I am talking about the configuration of the GFDL model. The model is configured in "nests":




The outer "nest" is 75x75 (deg) which has a horizontal resolution of 30 n mi. Inside of that is another "nest", 11x11 resolution of 10 n mi and inside of that another "nest", 5x5 resolution of 5 n mi. The two inner "nests" move along with the storm. The higher resoltuion gives the GFDL the capability for intensity forecasts.


AHA! I actually understand now. But I can't for the life of me understand my new compulsion to go study baby birds now. :)
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Quoting PcolaDan:

Think you'll learn soon enough.LOL
Fairly new too, so names still escape me at the moment.

p.s. Go Yellow Jackets
taking the kids to go get uniform fittings and tryouts for football and cheerleading in just a few...thanks for the rah rah for the jackets..
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Quoting jlp09550:

Yeah, "the fullest extent".. meaning to no extent for most ISPs.


Yup, and considering how many people use open WiFi networks for nefarious purposes these days, they'd probably be impossible to track.

People, if you have a WiFi network, PROTECT IT WITH A PASSWORD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have just re analyzed the data and can say with confidence that
Pat will not be able to eat his weight in shrimp, Drak will have a nuclear
meltdown should another virus arise and there is only a 12.3% chance that
WS will be going to a gentlemen’s club for his b-day this evening.
On a serious note. I got this link from someone on here last year and it is cool
But I am not sure how far of the time frame is will not post the but it is at
atmos.washington.edu They have some neat stuff but wonder how far behind it is
if at all. By the way as OZ posted earlier and I have been using since last year
thanks for all the info on your site SJ.-ster
Opps forgot-Happy B-day JFVWS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Funkadelic:
Has the 18Z GFS finished running yet? And could someone post a link. Thanks I appreciate it!

The long-range output is a solid 30 minutes away...probably a little more before we have any access to them.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/prdst_18_UTC_GFS.html
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Are you and atmoaggie talking in code???? :)


LOL

I am talking about the configuration of the GFDL model. The model is configured in "nests":




The outer "nest" is 75x75 (deg) which has a horizontal resolution of 30 n mi. Inside of that is another "nest", 11x11 resolution of 10 n mi and inside of that another "nest", 5x5 resolution of 5 n mi. The two inner "nests" move along with the storm. The higher resoltuion gives the GFDL the capability for intensity forecasts.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10911
Quoting atmoaggie:

How astute. A very good example.
thank you so very much...didn't take long for me to pick up on that one did it Pcoladan..lol
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1707. Patrap
By using the FILTER box on the top of the comments log,one can set it to Show all,Show best,Show Average,etc.
There are many tools available on the site to control your viewing preferences.
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Quoting Patrap:
If someone uses A IMAGE TO LAY A VIRUS,..THEY WILL BE TRACKED BY isp..AND LIKE THE ONES CURRENTLY UNDER THE TRACE,..PROSECUTED TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW.

Yeah, "the fullest extent".. meaning to no extent for most ISPs.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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