TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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1806. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
954

WHXX01 KWBC 111910

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1910 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090811 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090811 1800 090812 0600 090812 1800 090813 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.6N 29.9W 15.0N 32.2W 15.1N 34.6W 15.2N 37.1W

BAMD 14.6N 29.9W 15.1N 31.8W 15.6N 34.1W 15.9N 36.9W

BAMM 14.6N 29.9W 15.2N 32.0W 15.8N 34.2W 16.1N 36.9W

LBAR 14.6N 29.9W 15.0N 32.0W 15.8N 34.5W 16.5N 37.4W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090813 1800 090814 1800 090815 1800 090816 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.4N 39.9W 16.1N 46.2W 18.0N 53.3W 21.0N 61.6W

BAMD 16.7N 40.0W 19.4N 45.4W 23.5N 49.1W 26.1N 50.0W

BAMM 16.8N 39.8W 18.5N 46.0W 20.9N 52.6W 24.0N 59.4W

LBAR 17.3N 40.4W 20.4N 45.6W 25.2N 48.9W 29.6N 45.3W

SHIP 42KTS 49KTS 50KTS 45KTS

DSHP 42KTS 49KTS 50KTS 45KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 29.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 27.9W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT

LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 25.7W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
yea weatherstudent is back i am excited i think weatherstudent is cool
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Quoting java162:


are you from the caribbean?


Barbados
Models continue to trend a bit south and west than this morning

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Quoting Twinkster:
remember 00Z and 12Z runs are better and the track will fluctuate back and forth over the next couple of days


good point
1801. java162
Quoting stormdude77:


I really hope not. I have to get my hurricane supplies in order!


are you from the caribbean?
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remember 00Z and 12Z runs are better and the track will fluctuate back and forth over the next couple of days
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18Z run:

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1797. centex
Noticed WU now warning you when click on links. This allows you see see link address before clicking.
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Is it just me seeing this or on Dvorak is the pressure is dropping 1 and the T number increasing 1 every update?
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1795. WxLogic
Well... not surprised to see "B" explode once it reaches the GOM.
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Quoting Chucktown:
18Z GFS seems to be trending towards a more southerly route with the system behind TD 2





I really hope not. I have to get my hurricane supplies in order!
Quoting Chucktown:
18Z GFS seems to be trending towards a more southerly route with the system behind TD 2





HEY chucktown enjoyed playing today. what do you think of are depression
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Lets try again

Link
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18Z GFS seems to be trending towards a more southerly route with the system behind TD 2



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ok. got it. thanks!

the name list is more appealing to the ear this year. i like most of the names - not that it matters - just an observation.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just did another deep scan on my system everything is good with some new upgrades as well nice an fast now no bugs


No trolls with extra T's?
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Be careful opening links someone sends you through the mail system on here too.
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Quoting truecajun:
our local guy seems to be more concerned with what is behind td2. is this because it's origin is further south than td2s was? if it is the further south thing - does that mean there is less of a chance for it to be a fishstorm??? i'm confused on this whole originates north vs. south thing.


I would be more concerned about what's behind TD 2 also, man that was some scary stuff to see on the models. Category 3 in the Windward islands.
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Quoting truecajun:
our local guy seems to be more concerned with what is behind td2. is this because it's origin is further south than td2s was? if it is the further south thing - does that mean there is less of a chance for it to be a fishstorm??? i'm confused on this whole originates north vs. south thing.

He and I sure are on the same page.
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1782. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
just did another deep scan on my system everything is good with some new upgrades as well nice an fast now no bugs
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Thanks Ike.
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Quoting IKE:
18Z GFS puts the wave at 53W in the GOM at 114 hours...


And is remarkably consistent with making TD2 a nothing and doing something with the following wave.
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1779. WxLogic
Quoting Weather456:
18Z GFS


South of you...
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1778. IKE
Looks like the 18Z GFS sends the blob behind TD2 into the northeast Caribbean.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
18Z GFS
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Quoting truecajun:
our local guy seems to be more concerned with what is behind td2. is this because it's origin is further south than td2s was? if it is the further south thing - does that mean there is less of a chance for it to be a fishstorm??? i'm confused on this whole originates north vs. south thing.


BINGO! The farther north the more pull by the coriolis effect and more likely to be a fish...

The more south the less pull... Also right now the waters are warmer down there leading to a potentially more powerful storm..
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1774. IKE
Quoting gordydunnot:
Ike I dont know the millibar rings but is that a depression when it goes through the keys on the gfdl.


I would say....yes.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
Can someone post the link for the 18z gfs...TIA


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fpc.shtml
Wow, are we really going to get through this day in 0,0,0 mode?

Can I have just one more, please! :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3620
1771. Relix
All you guys getting infected should have used Firefox... at least I haven't had a problem. =/
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1770. IKE
Quoting truecajun:
our local guy seems to be more concerned with what is behind td2. is this because it's origin is further south than td2s was? if it is the further south thing - does that mean there is less of a chance for it to be a fishstorm??? i'm confused on this whole originates north vs. south thing.


Answers to your questions are....yes.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Ike I dont know the millibar rings but is that a depression when it goes through the keys on the gfdl.
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Quoting weathersp:
Did you guys see the new display format on the NHC site... they show the headline then the critical information is on the left..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


Yes, I like it.
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Can someone post the link for the 18z gfs...TIA
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Did you guys see the new display format on the NHC site... they show the headline then the critical information is on the left..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
our local guy seems to be more concerned with what is behind td2. is this because it's origin is further south than td2s was? if it is the further south thing - does that mean there is less of a chance for it to be a fishstorm??? i'm confused on this whole originates north vs. south thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1764. Walshy
What names will 2009 Hurricanes have?
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1763. IKE
Quoting gordydunnot:
Ike thats why I asked about the gfdl model same thing.


It definitely could happen.

18Z GFS is more aggressive with this wave. ECMWF 12Z was more aggressive.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting CycloneOz:


Listen, I need those recipes, Pat!

I have one for Italian Meat Sauce that contains a secret ingredient that not only reduces the acid content of the tomato base, but also makes it taste AWESOME!

Trade?

Definatley pass them along.My fav is Beer steamed with Old Bay.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skylink:
What is this in the Gulf about 400 miles west of Florida, ULL? Link


yeah, it does look a little swirly doesn't it? Who knows though...may be nothing.
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Quoting Patrap:
As a nola Chef Oz,..by tradition, I'll burl 4,saute 4,..and flash fry 4.

Then someone will have to clean the Kitchen before the Daily Show.


Listen, I need those recipes, Pat!

I have one for Italian Meat Sauce that contains a secret ingredient that not only reduces the acid content of the tomato base, but also makes it taste AWESOME!

Trade?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3620
Ike thats why I asked about the gfdl model same thing.
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Quoting woodsen:
I read that INVEST simply means an area of interest. What I read also sain ones in the Atlantic should be followed by an L, and ones in the Pacific are designated by E,S or N (obviously dependent on the area of the Pacific)

The map has a 9xL that seems to reside in the Pacific. Is there something about its longitude that made it go 'L'. Just curious.


Wunderground uses an L to designate an invest area, as in low pressure.
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1756. IKE
KerryInNOLA...you may have to eat those words if that wave at 53W gets in the GOM and develops into a cane. Not likely, but it could happen.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.