TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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1855. WxLogic
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Hey guys - I'm confused now - which wave is supposed to go into the GOM?


There are 3 possible disturbances moving into the GOM.

1) The wave at 55W.
2) TD#2 on a weaken state (assuming it follows GFS track)
3) Pre-Bill as a HURR (assuming it also follows GFS latest track)

Of course all the above are not set in stone so scenarios will change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hello all. been lurking all this year. 2 questions:
1. is 'weatherstudent' the 'jfv' of old?
2. it's his birthday?

happy 13th birthday! wheresitgonnago? nah, i kid...=)

seriously, though, happy birthday, kid. many happy returns
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Have they got a model saying where the wave coming off Africa is headed?
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Quoting heliluv2trac:
i am confused also i cant keep up with this


So many models...so much time...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1851. centex
AOI in SE Caribbean starting to fire a little convection. In previous days wave was void of convection this time of day.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3233
Quoting java162:


alright.. i'm from dominica a few islands to the north of you... the bill monster appears to be heading there early next week


We'll see what happens....
okay - thanks guys. There was nothing...then all of the sudden....confusion! Nice to see some of the oldies but goodies back on here!
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1848. java162
Quoting gordydunnot:
Dr. Lyons says low moving off Africa is already a 1005mb low.


i am starting to get scared.
Member Since: July 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 301
Quoting weathercrazy40:
hello all
i know here in new engalnd being over due for one always makes us wonder when a storm forms. the big question will be will there be a cold front to kick it out to sea or a big high over the alantic to sweep it up the coast


It's simply too far out to tell. Ask again on Monday, and I think we'll have a better idea by then.
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Wave at 50W as of 12Z

CMC -takes it into the gulf as a weak system, remains a wave on Monday
NOGAPS - same as a CMC but with a low pressure area attached
GFS - same as CMC
UKMET - nothing
ECMWF has a more vigorous feature in the N Gulf (below)

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting TexasHurricane:


really? How do you know?


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_324m.gif
i am confused also i cant keep up with this
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hello all
i know here in new engalnd being over due for one always makes us wonder when a storm forms. the big question will be will there be a cold front to kick it out to sea or a big high over the alantic to sweep it up the coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Hey guys - I'm confused now - which wave is supposed to go into the GOM?


the one at 53w.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Can anyone link me to the GFS "status" page that lists if the GFS is scheduled to update and what-not?
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Quoting hurricanehanna:
Hey guys - I'm confused now - which wave is supposed to go into the GOM?


53 I think...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
hey press....missed ya buddy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey guys - I'm confused now - which wave is supposed to go into the GOM?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ninja...'bout time you showed up...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


really? How do you know?


He doesn't. Nobody does.
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The 1928 hurricane?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1832. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 221500 UTC
Lat : 14:36:17 N Lon : 30:36:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.9 3.1 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -0.3C Cloud Region Temp : -21.5C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.08^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Dr. Lyons says low moving off Africa is already a 1005mb low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wave at 50W as of 12Z

CMC -takes it into the gulf as a weak system, remains a wave on Monday
NOGAPS - same as a CMC but with a low pressure area attached
GFS - same as CMC
UKMET - nothing
ECMWF has a more vigorous feature in the N Gulf (below)

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Is it just me or does the GFS animation from WU always predict a whopper smacking Florida? And does anyone notice the similarity of the current animation with this storm...

Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052


Aww, heck no. We all know that isn't possible...
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Are the models saying that the wave at 53w and the one behind TD2 are going in the GOM?
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Quoting stormdude77:


Florida Panhandle


really? How do you know?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting truecajun:
our local guy seems to be more concerned with what is behind td2. is this because it's origin is further south than td2s was? if it is the further south thing - does that mean there is less of a chance for it to be a fishstorm??? i'm confused on this whole originates north vs. south thing.

Yes, generally the closer to 10-15N the wave emerges, the better the chance it has of getting all the way to the western Atlantic or Caribbean. If it comes out south of 10N, it has a chance, but still must break free of the ITCZ. If it goes off north of 15N, it will have to fight SAL and early recurvature.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5881
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Keep away! The sow is mine! .. lol


as her head spins around and around...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good evening everybody....Haven't been on in a while. Looks like we finally have something to track!
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1820. java162
Quoting stormdude77:


Barbados


alright.. i'm from dominica a few islands to the north of you... the bill monster appears to be heading there early next week
Member Since: July 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 301
Quoting heliluv2trac:
its his birthday stormdude gotta make him feel good


Oh, I thought you were being sarcastic....
1818. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090811 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090811 1800 090812 0600 090812 1800 090813 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.6N 29.9W 15.0N 32.2W 15.1N 34.6W 15.2N 37.1W

BAMD 14.6N 29.9W 15.1N 31.8W 15.6N 34.1W 15.9N 36.9W

BAMM 14.6N 29.9W 15.2N 32.0W 15.8N 34.2W 16.1N 36.9W

LBAR 14.6N 29.9W 15.0N 32.0W 15.8N 34.5W 16.5N 37.4W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090813 1800 090814 1800 090815 1800 090816 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.4N 39.9W 16.1N 46.2W 18.0N 53.3W 21.0N 61.6W

BAMD 16.7N 40.0W 19.4N 45.4W 23.5N 49.1W 26.1N 50.0W

BAMM 16.8N 39.8W 18.5N 46.0W 20.9N 52.6W 24.0N 59.4W

LBAR 17.3N 40.4W 20.4N 45.6W 25.2N 48.9W 29.6N 45.3W

SHIP 42KTS 49KTS 50KTS 45KTS

DSHP 42KTS 49KTS 50KTS 45KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 29.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 27.9W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT

LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 25.7W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


testing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1816. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
thanks doc if your out there really like new warning with the clickable links now great idea i also scan em before opening as well
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Quoting TexasHurricane:


hmmmm, wonder where it goes once it gets to the GOM???


Florida Panhandle
Quoting Acemmett90:
as victim of trollulitus be freed the power of crist compels you


Keep away! The sow is mine! .. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
its his birthday stormdude gotta make him feel good
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


TD2

TD2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
when is wave 53 suppose to get in the gulf
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chucktown:
Lets try again

Link


hmmmm, wonder where it goes once it gets to the GOM???
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1809. Patrap
Quoting centex:
Noticed WU now warning you when click on links. This allows you see see link address before clicking.



One could always see a links address by just mousing over it and seeing the addy on the bottom of ones screen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting heliluv2trac:
yea weatherstudent is back i am excited i think weatherstudent is cool


????
1806. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
954

WHXX01 KWBC 111910

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1910 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090811 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090811 1800 090812 0600 090812 1800 090813 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.6N 29.9W 15.0N 32.2W 15.1N 34.6W 15.2N 37.1W

BAMD 14.6N 29.9W 15.1N 31.8W 15.6N 34.1W 15.9N 36.9W

BAMM 14.6N 29.9W 15.2N 32.0W 15.8N 34.2W 16.1N 36.9W

LBAR 14.6N 29.9W 15.0N 32.0W 15.8N 34.5W 16.5N 37.4W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090813 1800 090814 1800 090815 1800 090816 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.4N 39.9W 16.1N 46.2W 18.0N 53.3W 21.0N 61.6W

BAMD 16.7N 40.0W 19.4N 45.4W 23.5N 49.1W 26.1N 50.0W

BAMM 16.8N 39.8W 18.5N 46.0W 20.9N 52.6W 24.0N 59.4W

LBAR 17.3N 40.4W 20.4N 45.6W 25.2N 48.9W 29.6N 45.3W

SHIP 42KTS 49KTS 50KTS 45KTS

DSHP 42KTS 49KTS 50KTS 45KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 29.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 27.9W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT

LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 25.7W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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