TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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2006. Drakoen
3 forecasters to write the TWO lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2005. amd
Quoting popartpete:
Hey, Bastardi says it will be like 54, 60, 76 and 85, but doesn't he say that every year? (All were years that a 'cane hit the northeast u.s.)


more or less. since Accuweather is based at penn state university, I noticed that almost every long term prediction or "doom" prediction is biased for the NE US.

That's not to say that Joe Bastardi is not a good forecaster or meteorologist. IMO, I think he is a fantastic meteorologist, but sometimes his forecasting can be a bit biased toward landfalls either in the gulf or the mid-atlantic of the us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Hello Jersey from Mobile. Keep on blogging, because you have the right mindset!
I did not always possess it, it came from learned experience.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Yes it is. That should effectively destroy my dock.....and do more damage to my house...



Francis and Jeanne raised hell with mine.. of course the 32 footer that was pushed up along side didn't help either! Beat it to hell and back
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey IKE! I take your ready for any kind of impact?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Acemmett90:

do you need to flag every democrate
I thought politics were only for when the tropics were quiet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mobilegirl81:
All folks in south Alabama! 2009 is Hurricane Frederic's 30th anniversary and model s are shoot'in at us.


Which storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1998. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
its august and its the tropics
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53825
1997. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS DECREASED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Thanks Ike...I am with you thought I am a 00z and 12z model kinda guy. 18z and 06z dont hold much weight with me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1995. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting AussieStorm:
How is everyone this morning/evening, has everyone got there Hurricane Prep kits and supplies ready?????
hello aussie yes in all hurricane prone areas should be reviewing there plans over coming days it would be the smart thing to do
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53825
1994. KmanGal
thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Acemmett90:

do you need to flag every democrate

It is one thing to flag people for political reasons, it is entirely something different to wish death and or pain on someone whom you are extremely unlikely to have met, just because of a different viewpoint.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormsurge39:
Hey guys and girls, Sorry i cant keep up, do we or do we not have something to worry about going in the gulf this weekend? Are the models in agreement with this,and do they project it to become a huuricane? I live in Mobile, Al. and of course im concerned. Thank you


keep an eye on the official forecasts of this site and do not pay attention to all the long range models as these tend to epic fail and people keep raising panic unnecessarily here. just track the storms, have fun, and be safe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1990. IKE
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Dont wish that on us...was that model you posted the GFS?


Yes...where do you reside?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Acemmett90:

do you need to flag every democrate


i flag every political " off topic" post...don't get your panties in a wad or think your special ;)...

now back to the true topic on hand.

im curious to see how our td and aoi act overnight...
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1988. IKE
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

My personal opinion is the two yellow blobs are really not going to be anything but some rain and weak winds. Nothing to get worked up over but still just have to watch it just in case. TD2 needs to be watched as I think the track is still very uncertain. The wave coming off of Africa def needs to be watched as the models are in line with each other and make it turn into a monster but that is still 2 weeks away.


But it's only a week away from the islands....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Weather456:


farfetch if the ECMWF and GFDL was not showing the samething


I really hate that they're showing the same thing, too!

I've been having to deep-breathe all day...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3684
Quoting IKE:


I think the NE GOM has an increased chance of a hit in 2009 vs. 2008, for what it's worth.

Dont wish that on us...was that model you posted the GFS?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All folks in south Alabama! 2009 is Hurricane Frederic's 30th anniversary and model s are shoot'in at us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Or maybe build more effectively? Not right on the ocean and better wind resistant homes.

Or maybe restore natural wetlands...

And not build on barrier islands...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Our attention(in the Caribean)is centered in the impressive wave behind td2.Looks very well define already and computer models are very agressive to intensify the system and placed just east of the Leewards by next week.
I am from Puerto Rico and historically when a system aproach and pass near or over Guadeloupe island we have a direct hit after.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There's still some crap going on here. I just got a warning "To help protect your security, Internet Explorer has blocked this website from displaying content with security certificate errors." Tis warning was popping up Saturday when everyone else was getting infected.

Also some posted images are a red X, and poster "Walshy" avatar shows up as a red X warning.

I haven't been infected yet and all scans have come back clean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KmanGal:
So I'm a little confused.....I see 4 areas of interest, someone help me out please!!
(1) one that is over the islands now, entering the caribbean....I'm not hearing anything on this and it looks to develop??
(2) one that is going to move over the islands in a day or two??
(3) TD 2
(4) wave coming off Africa

Does anyone else see this? If so, are there any comments on the first one? Thanks

My personal opinion is the two yellow blobs are really not going to be anything but some rain and weak winds. Nothing to get worked up over but still just have to watch it just in case. TD2 needs to be watched as I think the track is still very uncertain. The wave coming off of Africa def needs to be watched as the models are in line with each other and make it turn into a monster but that is still 2 weeks away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
How is everyone this morning/evening, has everyone got there Hurricane Prep kits and supplies ready?????


I'm in the process of doing that.....
I see the ECMWF is developing a monster...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1978. IKE
Quoting SouthALWX:

living in mobile, yesterday's 18z wouldn't be fun.


I think the NE GOM has an increased chance of a hit in 2009 vs. 2008, for what it's worth.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Not the hurricane ike .. the poster IKE lives in the panhandle .. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1975. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Yep, they're really getting gung ho about it. I'm curious what tomorrow will hold.
something coming what it will be remains to be seen but ya something coming 456 if yer out there brother what ever it is may eventually end up close to you first
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53825
Quoting popartpete:
Hey, Bastardi says it will be like 54, 60, 76 and 85, but doesn't he say that every year? (All were years that a 'cane hit the northeast u.s.)

Shocker!

Honestly, I have lost a lot of faith in Bastardi's forecasts. He has forecast a major 'cane to hit the NE for the past 4 years running.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result each time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1973. IKE
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Ike what model was that last post? I cant read the text. You caught my eye haha.


18Z GFS.

Odds of that being right are 1 in 100.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


Do anyone remember this? I think our friend Billy can emulate that track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Why try to modify nature to fit our whims? How about working with nature so the impact isn't as severe, or *gasp* benefit from the storm? (think if you could just harness even a fraction of a percent of the energy involved in keeping a hurricane going...)

Or maybe build more effectively? Not right on the ocean and better wind resistant homes.
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Quoting Acemmett90:
lol or maybe george w bush he kills anything he touches


flagged...
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How is everyone this morning/evening, has everyone got there Hurricane Prep kits and supplies ready?????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bastardi is sort of a hotdog, but I like him.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maybe we could get about 100,00 747's to fly around in the opposite direction in a storm to counteract the cyclonic circulation. Bill Gates could pay for it...LOL..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Yes it is. That should effectively destroy my dock.....and do more damage to my house...


living in mobile, yesterday's 18z wouldn't be fun.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vortex95:
cloud tops cooling on TD 2


i must ask where your seeing this...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1963. KmanGal
So I'm a little confused.....I see 4 areas of interest, someone help me out please!!
(1) one that is over the islands now, entering the caribbean....I'm not hearing anything on this and it looks to develop??
(2) one that is going to move over the islands in a day or two??
(3) TD 2
(4) wave coming off Africa

Does anyone else see this? If so, are there any comments on the first one? Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey guys and girls, Sorry i cant keep up, do we or do we not have something to worry about going in the gulf this weekend? Are the models in agreement with this,and do they project it to become a huuricane? I live in Mobile, Al. and of course im concerned. Thank you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Yes it is. That should effectively destroy my dock.....and do more damage to my house...


Actually a hundred miles or so east of where Ike hit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Acemmett90:

maybe jsut somthing to kill the wind portion of them

Why try to modify nature to fit our whims? How about working with nature so the impact isn't as severe, or *gasp* benefit from the storm? (think if you could just harness even a fraction of a percent of the energy involved in keeping a hurricane going...)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ike what model was that last post? I cant read the text. You caught my eye haha.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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