TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting KmanGal:


West Bay, Grand Cayman. Yours?
East End
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Just don't see it right now.

GOM IR Loop
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Quoting adrianalynne:



is this TD2... or the one behind it? TD2 correct?

The one behind. Glad that it seems to lose his punch just before crossing Puerto Rico,,,
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
How could you tell, Chaser! Evening, FM.


After looking at the ECMWF for 4 years and watching storms it showed at 990mbs bomb out to <920mb storms when they verify.
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2045. CybrTeddy 11:51 PM GMT on August 11, 2009
The ECMWF is usually the most conservative on strength of the reliable models. Interesting to see how constant it is on developing a monster Hurricane



this is so true...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The ECMWF is usually the most conservative on strength of the reliable models. Interesting to see how constant it is on developing a monster Hurricane.


That's what got me scratching my head. Why did the ECMWF have such a bomb.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
I meant the models are trying to throw something close to us.


Bite your tongue, I'm in Mobile too.
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2048. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting IKE:


Oh yeah.
is one ever really ready to lose everything terrible thing to take away all you have or ever will have

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2047. KmanGal
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hey Kmangal. What's your location ?


West Bay, Grand Cayman. Yours?
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The ECMWF is usually the most conservative on strength of the reliable models. Interesting to see how constant it is on developing a monster Hurricane.
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2032. serialteg

lucky dog.....
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I meant the models are trying to throw something close to us.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
So where is the wave that is suppose to become this monster?


Its this huge mess right now.

I want to see organization before Im sure on development. There seems to be a 1008mb low with a rather nice 850 vort max. This area of convection should begin to merge together with the low. I'd say 24-36 hours before development. Although I want to see how the 00Z GFS handles this.

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2041. hahaguy
Quoting CybrTeddy:
So where is the wave that is suppose to become this monster?


Behind td 2.
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2039. java162
Quoting CybrTeddy:
So where is the wave that is suppose to become this monster?


the one behind TD2
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Quoting futuremet:
I see the ECMWF is developing a monster...



my God
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Hey IKE, hoo hoo!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hey Kman girl. What's your location ?
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good evening, all.
Evening young man. I guess you won't get much sleep tonight.
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wow...leave for a few hours and bam...stormchaser that's 1 mean looking thing right there....
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Whoa, this blog is flying tonite. Mobilegirl, no impacts please, Stormsurge, nothing in the Gulf at the moment, but we all know anything can get going in that boiling pot if the conditions are right.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
All folks in south Alabama! 2009 is Hurricane Frederic's 30th anniversary and model s are shoot'in at us.


I remember Freddy it was bad. What cha mean there shooting at us?

Sheri
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
988 on the ECMWF is the equivalent to a Category 4.



a cat4 so near the west of Puerto Rico would mean EPIC SURF ALERT :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

omg omg i will not get too carried away
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Quoting TampaFLUSA:

I already have him on ignore..he's been banned here before.

He sometimes has some good input, and I haven't noticed anything ignore-worthy as of late. (although the shaq-blob avatar was very close)

I may not be super-active on my own blog (I tend to write short novels, so I don't post them often), but I watch this blog and a few others quite often, and have for 2 years now. ;)
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This is information that we are getting locally. Not to say that anything may be heading our way, but the sense of security felt for awhile by the ridge of high pressure has diminished. For those who feel that we have had our "share of storms," in the last few years should not become complacent.


Upper-level high pressure is currently over Southeast Texas. This high has protected Southeast Texas from the Tropics in June, July and the first week of August. Unfortunately, the high will translate toward the Southwestern U.S. by Wednesday and then weaken this weekend. Early next week, a trough of low pressure will move from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies. The Bermuda High will strengthen and ridge into the Southeastern U.S. This will open the Gulf of Mexico for tropical systems to enter as we head into the busiest time of the season.
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Quoting watchingnva:


exactly...my case in point...i flag all...as i stated before...don't get your feelings hurt...

Um. I get what your doing .. but isn't a one word "flagged" post as bothersome as the original? Or asbothersome as this post complaining that post for that matter? I'm just sayingh is it necessary to say " I called the law on you" rather than just to do it ..
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Quoting KmanGal:
thanks!
Hey Kmangal. What's your location ?
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So where is the wave that is suppose to become this monster?
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2023. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Acemmett90:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 14:36:39 N Lon : 30:47:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.0 3.2 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -2.4C Cloud Region Temp : -21.3C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.18^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


ana ana ana

unbound thee ana
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988 on the ECMWF is the equivalent to a Category 4.

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Quoting adrianalynne:



is this TD2... or the one behind it? TD2 correct?


Billy

I found the Graphic at Allan's weather page
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2018. IKE
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Hey IKE! I take your ready for any kind of impact?


Oh yeah.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting robie1conobie:
I thought politics were only for when the tropics were quiet.


exactly...my case in point...i flag all...as i stated before...don't get your feelings hurt...case closed, over and done with...

now back to today's regularly scheduled programming.....
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Quoting futuremet:
I see the ECMWF is developing a monster...



where do you get the ECMWF graphics? i've only got this site from FOX

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/ecmwf_caribbean.html
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Quoting futuremet:
I see the ECMWF is developing a monster...




is this TD2... or the one behind it? TD2 correct?
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Quoting jeffs713:

It is one thing to flag people for political reasons, it is entirely something different to wish death and or pain on someone whom you are extremely unlikely to have met, just because of a different viewpoint.

I already have him on ignore..he's been banned here before.
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Quoting IKE:


Yes...where do you reside?

Gautier, MS about 15 miles east of biloxi, MS.
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18Z graphics for GFDL and HWRF are coming out.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_namer.shtml

Select GHM for GFDL
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11074
Quoting Vortex95:


Cloud tops are clearly cooling look at to main tropical page and run the loop.


looked at 3 different loops...im seeing about a consistent buildup of convection near the center that cools as it expands, but another burst occurs right after...i just don't see it...i could just be being blind tonight.
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yes it was the GFS. it was almost 24 hours old. the GFS has said texas mexico south florida Tampa New England Carolinas and no landfall at all in the past oh 3 days -.- Don't worry about it. And to IKE, I concur no big time heat bubble this go around to "protect" us. God we coulda used a TS last year =P.
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Look out Florida!
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Quoting AussieStorm:
How is everyone this morning/evening, has everyone got there Hurricane Prep kits and supplies ready?????

Yep, got my personal kit done by June 1. Only things I still need are either luxuries, or for post-storm cleanup/help. (I need to get a head-mounted LED light - easier to read with w/o power, and some heavy leather gloves and a strong saw for post-storm cleanup)
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2006. Drakoen
3 forecasters to write the TWO lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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