TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting SunKissed:


Weather 456...could you please elaborate on this? I don't think I understand the connection or impact..TIA


In a situation where you have ridge over the SW N Atlantic like in the graphic, any storm entering from the SW would find it harder to turn out to sea but continue west. This set up is similar to Georges 1998 but instead, the ridge was intially weak and build, resulting in a track as seen.
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Is "ANA" a fish storm or is it coming to NC.
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Quoting boatmanoki:
The wave behind "Bill" look real good


Well in 12 hours they're going to be the same wave.
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2253. Patrap
Quoting alaina1085:
She's beautiful Pat!



Thats a Google image,..not her..

but she is a Beauty
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
2252. centex
Quoting Acemmett90:

i smell an ana brewing
I can taste it.
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She's beautiful Pat!
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Morning/Evening Aussie.
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The wave behind "Bill" look real good
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Quoting Twinkster:


ya 2 days ago it had it hitting new orleans and then the next run it had it heading out to sea too early to know if there is a pattern


Yeah but with each run, it becomes a bit more "accurate" (if you want to call models accurate)
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Quoting IKE:


I haven't really paid attention to it throughout the day.

Thought the earlier reading was 1008mb's.


Neither have I. Just watching. Pat needs to move toward a little more purple and gold. Nice pic though Pat.
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Quoting HurricaneJoe:
Hey everyone

I looked at all 4 GFS runs, and each one seems to progressively shift "Bill" further to the West


Hate to burst your OBS here but, how can one model (any model really) correctly identify a track when the thing its tracking hasn't formed.

Patience is a virtue young grasshopper.
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2244. Patrap
Quoting boomerang08:


Is that at tiger stadium Pat?


Yes that's Death Valley,..and My Daughter will be a Freshman there on FULL Scholarship in a Few weeks after Graduating Dominican here in NOLA Cum Laud.

And yes,Im da Proud papa..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting foggymyst:
I am kind of lost.. which low will be ana and which will be bill.. i thought it was only ana (potential!)


TD2=Ana
The new wave exiting Africa right now is what they are calling soon to be "Bill."
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Quoting alaina1085:


Hit the quote button under the persons comment you wish to post. You should see it in your comment box. Just write your response underneath.

Good evening alaina
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Whats up JFV Happy Birthday kid!

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Quoting HurricaneJoe:
Hey everyone

I looked at all 4 GFS runs, and each one seems to progressively shift "Bill" further to the West


ya 2 days ago it had it hitting new orleans and then the next run it had it heading out to sea too early to know if there is a pattern
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2239. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Very similar to last night...just an earlier time.



We should have Ana by tomorrow morning with the diurnal maximum
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30080
I am kind of lost.. which low will be ana and which will be bill.. i thought it was only ana (potential!)
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looks like we my have a TS at 11pm
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Quoting Patrap:


Haha, my 2 yr old saw that pic and said "Hey lil gurl" He thinks he's a ladies man...
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Quoting Patrap:


Is that at tiger stadium Pat?
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Quoting jeffs713:
Wow.. a TD forms, and the bickering slows down, and people actually start to help each other! Whats next? People saying "thank you" or "Please?" ;)

Seems like a tropical "Depression" doesn't make this blog go bad and depressed but nicer.
It's more like tropical Gayness where everyone is happy there is a tropical system forming but then they will get back to sad, going nuts when it forms into a hurricane.Just like this blog will do sometime next week.Lol
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I like to ask questions, but I'm hesitant when I know that we've been over this topic many times. I just forget on the "off" season. I love weather, so I always know that a west wind means it's coming from the west and so on. I like to go out when bad weather is approaching and determine what direction it's coming from, so THAT I never forget. the barb i forget sometimes - opposite of a flag - that's an easy way to remember.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Very similar to last night...just an earlier time.



Now wait till DMAX tonight
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Quoting Drakoen:


Yes. That Malwarebytes software helped. I ran it again today and had no infections. Most of the stuff was from ads


I need to DL that software just in case.
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Very similar to last night...just an earlier time.

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2226. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:


1006 isn't real low. Lets see what it does.


I haven't really paid attention to it throughout the day.

Thought the earlier reading was 1008mb's.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Hey everyone

I looked at all 4 GFS runs, and each one seems to progressively shift "Bill" further to the West
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2223. Drakoen
Quoting alaina1085:


Drake is your PC still running ok?


Yes. That Malwarebytes software helped. I ran it again today and had no infections. Most of the stuff was from ads
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30080
Quoting Weather456:
This is why the wave behind Td 2 pose the greatest threat. There a mid-level ridge situated over the SW Atlantic

ecmwf - 168 HRS



Weather 456...could you please elaborate on this? I don't think I understand the connection or impact..TIA
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
I been here 5 years and i didn't even know that i would always just copy and paste and hit the Italics button..silly me

LMAO!

Quoting StormSurgeon:


Except for you, then I say GEAUX TIGERS!!!


Got that right!!!!
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Quoting IKE:


Isn't that a lower pressure?


NHC 5 PM was 1006mb also..
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Quoting IKE:


Isn't that a lower pressure?


1006 isn't real low. Lets see what it does.
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Quoting jlp09550:


There is a "quote" action at the bottom of each comment. It looks like this:




rofl
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Quoting Drakoen:


We already have "sir," "bud," "Senior Chief."


Drake is your PC still running ok?
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2215. Patrap
Quoting truecajun:
duuhhhhh! i never noticed that quote button. thanks.



Another underused feature is the Preview comment Button under the comment box.

If your unsure how a Post will look,hit that one to PREVIEW ones post b-4 sending out to the WWW.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
2213. Drakoen
Quoting tornadofan:


crazy talk


blasphemy, heresy
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30080
I been here 5 years and i didn't even know that i would always just copy and paste and hit the Italics button..silly me
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Quoting Drakoen:


We already have "sir," "bud," "Senior Chief."
Don't forget Drakster and Ikester.
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Quoting jeffs713:
Wow.. a TD forms, and the bickering slows down, and people actually start to help each other! Whats next? People saying "thank you" or "Please?" ;)


I find the blog to be a good resource as long as I use the ignore button when needed. The feedback buttons are also good as they usually catch and hide posts that have nothing to do with the weather, or are just people being stupid.

This new wave coming off africa... only a couple of the models pick it up... is it really worth the excitement right now? In a week we'll have a much better handle on what bill (if it becomes bill) is up to.
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2209. Drakoen
Quoting jeffs713:
Wow.. a TD forms, and the bickering slows down, and people actually start to help each other! Whats next? People saying "thank you" or "Please?" ;)


We already have "sir," "bud," "Senior Chief."
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30080
Quoting jeffs713:
Wow.. a TD forms, and the bickering slows down, and people actually start to help each other! Whats next? People saying "thank you" or "Please?" ;)
Don't hold your breath. It's still early but it would be nice.
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2207. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 02 2009081200 BEST 0 148N 311W 25 1006 TD


Isn't that a lower pressure?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting weathersp:


I am pleasently supprised on how willingly you ask questions.. this is what the blog is here for!

Ok here goes..

A wind barb is like a wind vane on top of a farm house roof.. The "stick" points into the wind, its the oppsite of a flag.

For wind speeds a long "barb" is 10 kts a "short barb" is 5 and a triange is 50 kts..

Here is a great website for you.. lots of learning here:

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/home.rxml

Heres the page about wind barbs:
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/maps/sfcobs/wnd.rxml


Thank you, this is great info.

Quoting jeffs713:
Wow.. a TD forms, and the bickering slows down, and people actually start to help each other! Whats next? People saying "thank you" or "Please?" ;)


Just seems we have a nice bunch this evening.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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