TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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2305. flsky
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2047
Quoting StormW:
SunKissed 8:41 PM EDT on August 11, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
This is why the wave behind Td 2 pose the greatest threat. There a mid-level ridge situated over the SW Atlantic

ecmwf - 168 HRS




Weather 456...could you please elaborate on this? I don't think I understand the connection or impact..TIA


With the latitude the next area is coming off the coast at, and with it projected to be stronger, it would have a tendency to be steered by the mid layers (mid level ridge). With a mid level ridge in place, and the way I think 456 thinks it will be situated, and probably rather large, it would allow for the system to come further west before recurvature, if any.



Lets give it 48 hours...ok? I'll post more reasonable and accurate observations as the season evolves. Right now it's bull. I do normally concur with your synopsis as I do so now, as well as 456 and IKE (I just love his opinion) and Stormchaser and
Tampa and Chicklet and Taco, and... etc,,,,,,,,/SW Anyway, what's up?
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nice flair up but lots of dry air around this storm.. Does anybody know how much African Dust is in the area around the storm?
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nice flair up but lots of dry air around this storm.. Does anybody know how much African Dust is in the area around the storm?
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Quoting alaina1085:


Oh Bama's going DOWN! Sabans gonna be wishin he was still here. :p


ROFLMAO ..... Heck thats the best thing that has ever happen to you all LSU fans..... Sabin could not get you all another National Championship if he tried..... Heck he went 12 and 0 and could not finish the deal with Alabama.....

I'm a Tigers Fan but the other one hehehehe

Taco :0)
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Quoting Drakoen:


Yes I am. That trojan/malware stuff is still out there. Thank God for AVG


Fortunately I am not getting any warning and my computer remains completely clean...
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Quoting alaina1085:


Oh Bama's going DOWN! Sabans gonna be wishin he was still here. :p


just gotta do this - ROLL TIDE!..lol
good luck this season..
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Tigers fans? You mean Detroit?
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Quoting StormW:


Thanks Drak...I got one on my PC titled security.risk, saying my PC had a security risk. Looked just like it came from the McAfee site
I use the AVG virus scan on a daily basis. Is this any good ?
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2295. Patrap


U. S. Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System Model
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Thanks
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Quoting StormW:
SunKissed 8:41 PM EDT on August 11, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
This is why the wave behind Td 2 pose the greatest threat. There a mid-level ridge situated over the SW Atlantic

ecmwf - 168 HRS




Weather 456...could you please elaborate on this? I don't think I understand the connection or impact..TIA


With the latitude the next area is coming off the coast at, and with it projected to be stronger, it would have a tendency to be steered by the mid layers (mid level ridge). With a mid level ridge in place, and the way I think 456 thinks it will be situated, and probably rather large, it would allow for the system to come further west before recurvature, if any.


correct,
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2290. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


Thanks Drak...I got one on my PC titled security.risk, saying my PC had a security risk. Looked just like it came from the McAfee site


I got that too
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Be back in a bit, bedtime for my son aka (achmed) LOL..jk.
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2288. Drakoen
Quoting alaina1085:


Are you serious? This is so not cool.


Yes I am. That trojan/malware stuff is still out there. Thank God for AVG
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2287. Dakster
Good Evening all...

I see that we still have some yellow circles and a TD to watch.

Any ideas on when/if Ana will be announced?

Now the funny thing would be if what people are calling Bill, forms first, and becomes Ana. Then Ana forms, but becomes Bill... I see some symantic problems here.
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Quoting keywestbrat:

tornadofan, my eyes poped out when I saw your avatar, I have that same one in a folder it is in key west,


Indeed - I swiped it from the Key West NWS site. It was a supercell waterspout near Key West in a spiral of Hurricane Wilma.
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Quoting Drakoen:
I just got a pop up saying their was trojans and malware. AVG caught it. Be careful folks. I got the message on my laptop.


Are you serious? This is so not cool.
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Awwwoooga!! Dive! Dive! Dive!
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
StormW if td2 grows will it be a fish storm
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2280. Drakoen
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Drak how is your desktop?


Everything is back to normal for now. No infections. I am running the quickscan once a day to be safe.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Holy Cow! Another Tiger fan....hoo hoo.....


Plenty of tiger fans here i see...me included
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Quoting Drakoen:
I just got a pop up saying their was trojans and malware. AVG caught it. Be careful folks. I got the message on my laptop.


Thanks, I'm a laptop too. Nothing yet...

And I've been gone for the last few hours. Anything new?
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Quoting centex:
I can taste it.

I can hear her yelling off in the distance in the woods.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Didn't say hello to this Tiger fan did you Alaina? Think Scott will blast Bama off the map?


Oh Bama's going DOWN! Sabans gonna be wishin he was still here. :p
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2275. Patrap
Any day in Tiger Stadium is a Good Day we say.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center

CPC) works in close collaboration with NOAA's National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division to produce seasonal Atlantic hurricane outlooks and climate summaries of recent past hurricane seasons. The current atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the tropical North Atlantic are summarized in the links below
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting alaina1085:


I need to DL that software just in case.

Only going to throw this out because many from last night are here. Won't mention viruses anymore after this.
Another I use is Spybot and I like it lots. Unlike malwarebytes, runs in the background so may not be for everyone.

get it here
http://download.cnet.com/Spybot-Search-amp-Destroy/3000-8022_4-10122137.html

or here
http://www.safer-networking.org/en/home/index.html
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Quoting Weather456:


It n asituation where you have ridge over the SW N Atlantic like in the graphic, any storm entering from the SW would find it harder to turn out to sea but continue west. This set up is similar to Georges 1998 but instead, the ridge was intially weak and build, resulting in a track as seen.


So essentially, when the ridge is strong, it's kinda like bowling with bumpers? The storm is most likely going to travel within that zone?
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Quoting Drakoen:


We should have Ana by tomorrow morning with the diurnal maximum


Looks to have finally gotten vertical. I'll go with the 11pm eastern. Which is really tomorrow zulu.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
2270. Drakoen
I just got a pop up saying their was trojans and malware. AVG caught it. Be careful folks. I got the message on my laptop.
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TD#2 is looking really good wouldn't be surprised if it is Ana by 11 tonight. Theres a good spin and now deeper convection is forming around the center.
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2264. IKE
Quoting weathersp:


Hate to burst your OBS here but, how can one model (any model really) correctly identify a track when the thing its tracking hasn't formed.

Patience is a virtue young grasshopper.


Same way they spin up noreasters days in advance.

It happens.
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2262. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Drakoen:


We should have Ana by tomorrow morning with the diurnal maximum
maybe by 2am
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LOL!

Somethings wrong with the ADT estimates.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.8mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.1 3.4 3.4
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awwwww. what a cutie pie Patrap. that gives me the owvee (as my gammie would say) i think it means itch for an LSU game. i missed them all last year because i was stuck at home with a newborn - my hubby went without me. hopefully i can make a few this year. can't wait!
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Quoting Patrap:



Thats a Google image,..not her..

but she is a Beauty


Oh lol. Well im sure she is.
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Quoting SunKissed:


Weather 456...could you please elaborate on this? I don't think I understand the connection or impact..TIA


In a situation where you have ridge over the SW N Atlantic like in the graphic, any storm entering from the SW would find it harder to turn out to sea but continue west. This set up is similar to Georges 1998 but instead, the ridge was intially weak and build, resulting in a track as seen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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