TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Really am surprised that we still don't have Tropical Storm Ana, but can understand why considering the partially exposed circulation and low SAB and TAFB satellite estimates during the night. Could be wrong again, but given the new estimates from the SAB and TAFB at 2.5, we should have Tropical Storm Ana like a few have stated.
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looks like models are predicting a hit for pr
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Quoting jeffs713:

Same models, new computer. It should help to speed up posting the GFS and NAM.


I don't expect any significant affect on time. It does increase their capacity greatly. So far, results are coming out about 1 minute sooner than average for the NAM. You can monitor from this site http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/index.html#TARGET
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3652. eddye
eveyone td 2 could be a south fl threat south fla could hit byis a catgory 1 from td 2 and it becoming really organized but it too early too tell
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3651. Drakoen
Quoting ackee:
so the last model runs by the GFS was wrong ?



No.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29904
3650. Drakoen
Quoting alaina1085:


Drake if you dont mind me asking, where are you located?


South Florida
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29904
3649. ackee
Quoting Drakoen:


Correct. It will be running faster and harder.
so the last model runs by the GFS was wrong ?
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Steering Layer 700-850 hPa
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
3647. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:


Correct. The models will be run a bit earlier than normal from what I understand.


Good... let's hope everything goes well with the upgrade and starting at 00Z tonight we'll be having quick posting of models on the web.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4929
For fellow Texans, here's what Bob Rose, LCRA says about next week (which the CMC probably sees, too):
-------------------------
As I mentioned earlier, we may see some small changes sometime late next week when a large trough of low pressure develops over the eastern half of the US. The trough will force a cold front into Texas sometime next Thursday or Friday, possibly bringing a chance for rain along with slightly lower temperatures. ***The upper high is forecast to be pushed to the south. Yea! *** Seriously, it will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves late next week.
---------
http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/weather/weather_column.html
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3645. cg2916
Quoting Drakoen:


Correct. It will be running faster and harder.

Will it be more accurate?
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If you take a look at the 200 mb spaghetti, pretty deep trough develops around August 21. If this verifies then "Bill" would be deflected out to sea. (Give it a few seconds to load)

Link
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1719
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I would expect ANA at the 11 AM advisory, both SAB and TAFB have TD2 at 2.5, but I could be wrong.


I agree. Especially with the WSW motion, as they said yesterday a more southerly solution would allow a stronger cyclone. Warmer SST's down a little further as well.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Correct. It will be running faster and harder.


Drake if you dont mind me asking, where are you located?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
3641. slavp
Quoting CycloneOz:
So far I've seen model runs this week that takes significant TCs into the following areas:

1) WPB (S. FL)
2) SE TX / SW LA
3) Biloxi (panhandle)

Those are the three areas I selected in June to get hit with a TC this year...perhaps.

May the Models and I be wrong! :)
Yes, You may be wrong...Matter of fact, you better be wrong!!! LOL
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Quoting A4Guy:
Are folks concerend over the model runs for what is now TD2...or what is behind TD2? Looks like the latest runs for TD2 still have a N-ward curve, but too early to say if a high will push it west after day 5.

Just trying to understand where everyone's concern is coming from.

Thanks.


Both. During the tropical season, any storm that has or possibly will develop needs to be watched closely.
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3639. Drakoen
Quoting jeffs713:

Same models, new computer. It should help to speed up posting the GFS and NAM.


Correct. It will be running faster and harder.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29904
So far I've seen model runs this week that takes significant TCs into the following areas:

1) WPB (S. FL)
2) SE TX / SW LA
3) Biloxi (panhandle)

Those are the three areas I selected in June to get hit with a TC this year...perhaps.

May the Models and I be wrong! :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
"There are also two tropical waves churning in the area of the Windward Islands and another just off the coast of Africa.


“We’re not expecting those to become much,” Bragaw said"

That was from our local paper here in Melbourne


Our local mets here in Baton Rouge, LA dont seem too concerned either. Just a wait and see game unfortunately.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Does anyone see the spin at the ITCZ that seems to be influencing Ana?
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Quoting cg2916:

Where are those numbers? I know where the SSD is, but not those.
Are they running the same models on a better computer, or a new model altogether?

Same models, new computer. It should help to speed up posting the GFS and NAM.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5874
3634. A4Guy
Are folks concerend over the model runs for what is now TD2...or what is behind TD2? Looks like the latest runs for TD2 still have a N-ward curve, but too early to say if a high will push it west after day 5.

Just trying to understand where everyone's concern is coming from.

Thanks.
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3633. cg2916
Are they running the same models on a better computer, or a new model altogether?
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"There are also two tropical waves churning in the area of the Windward Islands and another just off the coast of Africa.


“We’re not expecting those to become much,” Bragaw said"

That was from our local paper here in Melbourne
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It's getting interesting guys/gals.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
3630. Drakoen
Quoting WxLogic:
The new Supercompuer Implementation is happening this AM right? So the 12Z might potentially have some unwanted results in the long range runs.


Correct. The models will be run a bit earlier than normal from what I understand.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29904
You know, it would make sense if TD#2 followed the periphery of that dry air mass, sending it a bit further south as it continues to move mostly due west.

It's only got about 400 miles to go before it hits Shangri-La!

Wow!!!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
3628. cg2916
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I would expect ANA at the 11 AM advisory, both SAB and TAFB have TD2 at 2.5, but I could be wrong.

Where are those numbers? I know where the SSD is, but not those.
Quoting Drakoen:
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1328Z WED AUG 12 2009
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS CURRENTLY ON TIME...
NCEP IS CURRENTLY SENDING OUT PRODUCTS FROM THE NEW STRATUS
SUPERCOMPUTER
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - MISSED THE NAM...IN FOR THE GFS
FAI/70261 - 10159
RNK/72318 - SHORT TO 571MB
CUU/76225 - 10142
$$
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Are they running the same models on a better computer, or a new model altogether?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3627. WxLogic
The new Supercompuer Implementation is happening this AM right? So the 12Z might potentially have some unwanted results in the long range runs.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4929
Quoting Nolehead:
thanks alaina...kinda what i figured...getting ready to wax up the boards...


Haha, do your thing.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting Drakoen:
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1328Z WED AUG 12 2009
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS CURRENTLY ON TIME...
NCEP IS CURRENTLY SENDING OUT PRODUCTS FROM THE NEW STRATUS
SUPERCOMPUTER
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - MISSED THE NAM...IN FOR THE GFS
FAI/70261 - 10159
RNK/72318 - SHORT TO 571MB
CUU/76225 - 10142
$$
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP


Finally.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15788
Quoting nuggsgalore:
Anybody seen the latest CMC? What is that smacking into Texas?




Yay for the CMC - Constantly Making Cyclones!

I think the "thing" smacking into the TX/LA border is something it spins up either off the stalled front or off the piece of the wave expected to come into the GOM in a few days.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5874
thanks alaina...kinda what i figured...getting ready to wax up the boards...
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The spin at 42 11 in the ITCZ seems to be the direction pre-Ana is headed.
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Can someone please provide a link for the CMC.

Thanks!
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And holy cow...look at the Gulf of Mexico!

That's a TC spa treatment if I've ever seen one!

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
3619. Drakoen
Quoting Nolehead:
Drak...have you seen the canadian model yet?? granted it's not the best in the world but where does that come from....the yucatan?? or that blob in teh carrib right now...just very curious...



Yea I have seen it. It comes from the area near the Lesser Antilles.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29904
3618. cg2916
We will likely have Ana at 11 AM, because the SSD Dvorak numbers are 2.5, which mean 35 knots, which means 40 mph.
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3617. Drakoen
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1328Z WED AUG 12 2009
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS CURRENTLY ON TIME...
NCEP IS CURRENTLY SENDING OUT PRODUCTS FROM THE NEW STRATUS
SUPERCOMPUTER
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - MISSED THE NAM...IN FOR THE GFS
FAI/70261 - 10159
RNK/72318 - SHORT TO 571MB
CUU/76225 - 10142
$$
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29904
Drak...have you seen the canadian model yet?? granted it's not the best in the world but where does that come from....the yucatan?? or that blob in teh carrib right now...just very curious...
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I would expect ANA at the 11 AM advisory, both SAB and TAFB have TD2 at 2.5, but I could be wrong.
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TD#2 seems to be sending out water vapor spikes to insulate itself from the dry stable air mass to it's north and west.

It wants to be all that it can be!

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
3613. ackee
Quoting Drakoen:

Link
thanks think we see another andrew
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Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
3611. MahFL
Some new deep convection is firing up on TD2.
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Quoting Nolehead:
morning everyone...has anyone noticed the canadian model?? WTH is that coming off the yucatan?? is this from that blob in the carrib?


Wave in the carrib.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
TD2 Ana, then Bill blob, then one more still inland Africa:

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/eastern-atlantic-ocean-ir-satellite-loop.htm l
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Stormchaser 2007 that convection is still on the west side of the center. Did you see the new spin just to the southwest at 42 11?
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3607. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Vorticity slowly but surely increasing.




Very broad area of low pressure which was also confirmed from the satellite derived winds. The GFS showed a broad system forming in the short term that tightens up there after.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29904


Nice looking out flow associated with TD2, looks like we will have Ana by 11am. Really starting look better and better.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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