TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Convection displaced to the west.. 02L
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Possibilities this week and next week

The wave that the GFS, CMC, EURO, and GDFL develop is off the coast of Africa and it looks like a circulation is already trying to get going. While Tropical Depression 2 could strengthen to Tropical Storm Ana overnight, dry air will keep it at a range of 40-50 mph. at best. After TD2 "Ana" gets away from the SAL, windshear should start to increase and the storms chances of survival are not that good. However, the wave that is exiting the coastline today will be in a more moist environment and possible already has an anticyclone developing over it. All the models that develop it, are aggressive and make it "Hurricane Bill". The track is simple until it reaches the Islands by the Weekend. I drew three possible paths that it could take.

1. The potential storm finds a strong trough and pulls out to sea, but not before affecting Bermuda. This storm cannot go out to sea until it passes 60W due to a strong ridge of high pressure building back after a small trough curved TD2 "Ana".

2.
The storm becomes a historic Hurricane as it goes through the Carribean for a short amount of time, hits Haiti and weakens. After the potential storm gets back out into the Atlantic, the storm strengthens and feels a trough, pulls northward, misses Florida and hits the Northeast.

3.
Strength wise, this could be the worst case scenario. The potential storm continues heading westward in the Carribean, becomes a major Hurricane and gets into the GOM, hits Florida, similar to Hurricane Ivan (2004)

Photobucket

Of course it can go to Mexico or the western GOM, but I think those three possibilities are a bit more likely.. Can't really predict something that hasn't even developed, this is all speculation. We'll see what happens through the coming weeks as both these systems (Ana, Bill) possibly form. Claudette might develop in 2 weeks according to the GFS. Too far out to make that prediction.. All of this is really just telling us that Hurricane Season has finally started in the Atlantic Ocean. I'm predicting an active period for the next few weeks. Possibly 3-4 storms this month.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
*Peeks out of hiding* Hiya Nash!! Great to see you!

Evenin' everyone. This is the most interesting the tropics (at least the ATL tropics anyway) have been so far. I always enjoy and learn from everyone's posts (so thanks all).
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2401. nash28
Hey gang. I hear there is a nasty virus choking people. DO NOT CLICK anything that you do not trust.

Viewing is fine.
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Quoting Patrap:


Security Error: Content at http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/ may not load data from http://cdn4.specificclick.net/img/?


That seeems to be a Advertisement from the site itself...
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Did I miss a virus attack?
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Well TD 2 looks about the same as it did last night at roughly 1-2am...interesting.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Nash it is always good to see you here...

Welcome

taco :0)
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2395. Patrap
Quoting Drakoen:


I would scan all the pages if possible. We need to find the source.


Sir,..the first attack occurred here Saturday August 8th soon after Dr. Masters posted his entry.

If you go to the archives from that entry,see post #36 as I was alerted to the first infection VIA ZoneAlarm.



Another Blogger last evening noticed these as we were discussing the matter.
I hope this will be of some assistance as to whats occurring.


Quoting SavannahStorm:
I'm going to copy and paste the attack info from my filter log so we know where they are coming from. These are the two I am constantly getting. Whatever you do, do not try to follow these links, as they are probably the source of the attack. I am only posting these so you know what links to watch out for.:

Security Error: Content at http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/ may not load data from http://ads.technoratimedia.com/ads/get.cfm?urlChecker=http://&zoneIdentifier= DFA400577B659FC7&showFr ameID=717B0991E62A476DB4CEEB01A44F904A.

and

Security Error: Content at http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/ may not load data from http://cdn4.specificclick.net/img/?ag=1&pb=6154&pg=887650680644719194&us= cy89iorvHItQ7C&rnd=711565.
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Quoting nash28:
Against by better judgement, popping in here to say hello.

Hey Nash, hope you came protected with virus protection.
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Hello Nash!
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Quoting Twinkster:


i haven't had a virus since the first year i had my computer which was 2004. someone is posting a hidden malicious script somewhere on this site


I don't doubt that the script exists, but I've been hitting the site all day and nothing interesting has happened virus-wise. Something in my setup is blocking it. Do some scans and give us the name of what you're infected with... that'll give us geek types a good place to start looking
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2389. nash28
Heya StormW! You been to get some good wings and beer lately? :-)
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Quoting nash28:


hey Nash! Long time no see..
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Quoting FloridaTigers:


With potential, sure, but the models are developing that wave awfully fast in a short time period.

TD2/Ana seems awfully small too.


That Bill wave is going to take at least 24 hours to consolidate, I think. I agree that they are developing it too fast. But if there's a major hurricane in the works from any of these systems, it's going to come from this system. I'm positive on that.

TD2 is small because of the dry air, as 456 said.
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Quoting Weather456:


That is the case when storms is unable to expand likely due to the nearby dry airmass. Similiar to Debby 2006.


Alright thanks.
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2385. Drakoen
Quoting Engine2:


Ok its going to take me sometime - I'll look for malicious code injection and routines. Hopefully I have some results for you guys soon


Thanks!
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Quoting Engine2:


I'll start randomly scanning some of the blog pages and validate source code. I'm also an IT Professional - anyone have any idea around what page they started experiencing virus like symptoms?


I'll do so as well. I'm not a pro, but I do know a good bit about code. As for when it started, I don't know, I wasn't here when the virus started.

As for TD2, I'll go out on a limb here and slightly agree with the ADT estimates, I'll go a little lower. I do think we have Ana right now y'all.
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Quoting nash28:
Against by better judgement, popping in here to say hello.


Now there's someone I haven't seen in awhile. Hello!
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Quoting Engine2:


I'll start randomly scanning some of the blog pages and validate source code. I'm also an IT Professional - anyone have any idea around what page they started experiencing virus like symptoms?


Try page 15 of the last blog... Thats where people I think had problems.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Hey StormW
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well, it definitely has the potential to become a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane. Very favorable 200 mb winds are in order.


With potential, sure, but the models are developing that wave awfully fast in a short time period.

TD2/Ana seems awfully small too.
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2379. nash28
Hey Cybr.
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2378. Drakoen
Quoting TampaHelpDesk:


You have my sympathies... back up all your important data just in case you need to do a full reload. Some of these new bugs are nasty enough that you have to nuke the drive and start fresh. They dig so deep into the OS that it's nearly impossible to get them out


I'm fine. AVG is protecting me. It caught the malware and deleted it
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2377. aquak9
hello, Nash. Very good to see you.
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2376. Engine2
Quoting Drakoen:


I would scan all the pages if possible. We need to find the source.


Ok its going to take me sometime - I'll look for malicious code injection and routines. Hopefully I have some results for you guys soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2375. Patrap
The ADT #'s folks see are done by a Computer reading
algorithm,..its not reviewed by a Human until one sees the Final ADT estimates,..and they are estimates,not Gospel
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Is this TD2 a smaller storm? It looks rather small to me on satellite.


That is the case when storms is unable to expand likely due to the nearby dry airmass. Similiar to Debby 2006.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Drakoen:


I haven't had a problem until this point


You have my sympathies... back up all your important data just in case you need to do a full reload. Some of these new bugs are nasty enough that you have to nuke the drive and start fresh. They dig so deep into the OS that it's nearly impossible to get them out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nash28:
Against by better judgement, popping in here to say hello.


Hello Nash. I haven't seen you here since last year. Alas, the blog is not what it used to be but welcome back nonetheless.
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Felicia in Hawaii..
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
2368. Drakoen
Quoting Engine2:


I'll start randomly scanning some of the blog pages and validate source code. I'm also an IT Professional - anyone have any idea around what page they started experiencing virus like symptoms?


I would scan all the pages if possible. We need to find the source.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nash28:
Against by better judgement, popping in here to say hello.


Hey Nash! Wondering where you've been!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23916
Quoting TampaHelpDesk:


I have been on this site all day and not had one problem. Protect your PC before venturing out into the interweb


i haven't had a virus since the first year i had my computer which was 2004. someone is posting a hidden malicious script somewhere on this site
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2365. Engine2
Quoting Drakoen:
The person who is posting the bad script must be able to hide the code within their post.


I'll start randomly scanning some of the blog pages and validate source code. I'm also an IT Professional - anyone have any idea around what page they started experiencing virus like symptoms?
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
Are the models too aggressive in developing the wave behind TD2?


Well, it definitely has the potential to become a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane. Very favorable 200 mb winds are in order.
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2363. Drakoen
Wave axis is off shore. Dr. Lyons even confirmed that. Convection on-shore is land-based.
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2361. WxLogic
In my opinion the ADT values are correct... the system is now catching up to the pressure drop and establishing pretty decent convection around its center. If it this is now after DMIN... then it should be interesting towards DMAX. I won't disagreed that there might be +/- deviations on its Wind, and Pressure estimates... but looks solid.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4970
Is this TD2 a smaller storm? It looks rather small to me on satellite.
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2359. nash28
Against by better judgement, popping in here to say hello.
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2357. Drakoen
Quoting TampaHelpDesk:


I have been on this site all day and not had one problem. Protect your PC before venturing out into the interweb


I haven't had a problem until this point
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Whats the link to the ADT estimates? Im trying to get it so I can bookmark it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23916

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.