TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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2455. Dakster
Quoting Patrap:
And since today,..well this morning..Ive been using a IT friends DoD protected Toughbook.
The only thing thats gonna knock this un out is a EMP.

And If that happens,well blogging wont be a issue much at all.



We use the same laptops at work... They are pretty darn tough. Even the keyboard is waterproof. Made for Military and Law Enforcement. Good to hit people across the head and knock them out too. (don't ask)

I'd post what I use for virus protection, but I got banned the last time I did... Geesh - They give the darn things out in Highschools (probably middle schools in some states).
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2454. Engine2
Quoting Chicklit:

I think somewhere around 1630 something there was a link that somebody said they didn't post and it was there. When I went back and check it, the properties said something about Georgia and maybe a massacre? I don't remember now. I think Patrap may know and reported it to Dr. Masters' admin.


Ok thank you for the additional info - I'll also take a look at that
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Looks like nothing going on tonite in the tropics, and whatever is left of TD2 is falling apart, another poof!
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Did you read Dawn? Unreal.


Read what? The blog?
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2450. Dakster
Hey WeatherStudent. Does the :) mean you agree with ReedZone?

I also interested in whether StormW agrees?

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Quoting sammywammybamy:



I dont Know ,

I think ill go with it going west..


Look at the Models


Look at history. The only systems that start out near 15N and make it all the way across into the Caribbean have been in years when we have had very strong ridges of high pressure all the way from the Azores to Florida.

It was my position days ago and still is today that TD2 or Ana will not enter the Caribbean. Whether it reaches the East coast of the US remains to be seen.
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Stormdude77 we may have some problem in less than 10 days if these models are right.
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I noticed nobody has talked about El Nino lately.
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2442. Patrap
And since today,..well this morning..Ive been using a IT friends DoD protected Toughbook.
The only thing thats gonna knock this un out is a EMP.

And If that happens,well blogging wont be a issue much at all.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Did you read Dawn? Unreal.


Almost like Moses after coming down from the Mount.
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2440. Patrap
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


From the descriptions given it appears that the problem was the rogue application by the name of "Advanced Virus Remover"

CRS


Dat be Da Bug..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
Quoting ...oops I ment to quote:
2422. Engine2 9:37 PM EDT on August 11, 2009

so...

I didn't get it?


From the descriptions given it appears that the problem was the rogue application by the name of "Advanced Virus Remover"

CRS
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Quoting conchygirl:
Open Atlantic is a good thing and no danger to land!


True, but the Westcasters are everywhere
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Quoting kmanislander:


What's up ?. Still another ho hum day in the tropics notwithstanding TD2.

I still think it is destined for the open Atlantic.


Did you read Dawn? Unreal.
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2436. Skyepony (Mod)
Cloudsat caught the wave behind TD2 rolling off Africa earlier today.. pretty wow for a wave..

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Quoting Engine2:


I'll start randomly scanning some of the blog pages and validate source code. I'm also an IT Professional - anyone have any idea around what page they started experiencing virus like symptoms?

I think somewhere around 1630 something there was a link that somebody said they didn't post and it was there. When I went back and check it, the properties said something about Georgia and maybe a massacre? I don't remember now. I think Patrap may know and reported it to Dr. Masters' admin.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11180
2414. kmanislander 1:35 AM GMT on August 12, 2009
The boomerang anti-virus. What a fantastic idea !

Love this idea!!
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2433. Patrap
Thats what happened to me Saturday,..I had a Firefox issue and was running,UGH..IE when the first attack occurred,and Ive spoken with the Highest wu Source Twice today on the matter.
Hopefully,the Frisco IT folks will isolate the Malicious source and we all can be running along Like Normal.
Whatever that iz round here anymo..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
Quoting kmanislander:


What's up ?. Still another ho hum day in the tropics notwithstanding TD2.

I still think it is destined for the open Atlantic.
Open Atlantic is a good thing and no danger to land!
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Good evening ladies and gentlemen. Tonight TD2 has a vigorous low level circulation and has had good structure since last night. The real changes from last night to tonight have been the convective cycles it has gone through. The structure is still intact and is quite strong even with the convection dying today. Right now convection has formed over the circulation for the most part, and its possible that the Dvorak estimates are right. The only thing stopping the NHC from naming this Ana is the convective cycles. Dry air may continue to be a problem as relatively cooler SSTs are in its path for the next 24 to 48 hours. Again right now I expect it to stay a TD until tomorrow morning. It will be named tomorrow morning in my opinion.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Hey Kman


What's up ?. Still another ho hum day in the tropics notwithstanding TD2.

I still think it is destined for the open Atlantic.
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Quoting Weather456:


I'm a paid member, so if that is the case, then...


You can't see the ad.. the virus can't see you..?

Thats why I was confused when everyone said they had contracted it and my Anti-Virus didn't pick it up even hfter a full scan by two seprate programs. I was on when the 2nd attack occoured but I am also a paid member and have no ad's so...

I didn't get it?
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Quoting Patrap:


That what many have been saying,..

as one can contract the Malware Virus simply by Logging on ,..if the Virus is embedded in a Ad Banner,which does occur .


The adblock plus plugin for firefox blocks all ads from displaying... probably why I haven't seen any problems. Makes viewing the site a lot nicer too
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2425. Patrap
Quoting Weather456:


I'm a paid member, so if that is the case, then...
Well.whoop dee frigging do,unfortunately,that dosent keep the Malware from doing a end run Sporty one.


Lotsa us are Paid members,..but the start up Log-in still engages the Virus or Im a Duck..

Oink,Oink..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
Quoting weathersp:


That seeems to be a Advertisement from the site itself...


And it's not a virus, it's simply an advertisement that is being blocked, possibly by mistake. Google wouldn't allow advertisers to use malicious codes.
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2423. 10Speed
Quoting reedzone:
Possibilities this week and next week


I'll buy choice #1.
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2422. Engine2
Quoting nash28:
Hey gang. I hear there is a nasty virus choking people. DO NOT CLICK anything that you do not trust.

Viewing is fine.


Nash - do you know if people were getting the virus via clicking links or direct code injection?
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Quoting kmanislander:


The boomerang anti-virus. What a fantastic idea !


Hey Kman
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It wouldn't surprise me if the coc of td#2 were to reform/move under the consolidated area of thunderstorms.
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Hey all! Finally ventured back to Wunderground after a boring off-season to see everyone back at the helm. Looks to be some action finally getting going this season!

A special shoutout to StormW! How's it going this time around?
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Quoting Patrap:


That what many have been saying,..

as one can contract the Malware Virus simply by Logging on ,..if the Virus is embedded in a Ad Banner,which does occur .


I'm a paid member, so if that is the case, then some would miss it.

Firefox adblock gets rid of these ads.
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Quoting BiloxiIsle:
Too bad someone couldn't come up with an anti-virus that when the offending party sends it out, it goes back to their PC and completely destroy it!


The boomerang anti-virus. What a fantastic idea !
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Wow - nice to see the oldies but goodies coming back - things must be getting serious in the tropics.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
2412. Patrap
Quoting weathersp:


That seeems to be a Advertisement from the site itself...


That what many have been saying,..

as one can contract the Malware Virus simply by Logging on ,..if the Virus is embedded in a Ad Banner,which does occur .
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127628
Nothing............yet


Atl Link Loop
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NEW ARTICLE POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
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Too bad someone couldn't come up with an anti-virus that when the offending party sends it out, it goes back to their PC and completely destroy it!
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
Did I miss a virus attack?


I could say the same thing. I just read dr masters last paragraph. Well I must of been away from the blog cuz I'm not getting any messages.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.