TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting stormdude77:
W456, looks like y'all in the Leeward islands will get a good amount of rainfall from the Twave at 53W


not alot but I'll take anything at this point
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076


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Quoting TexasWynd:

whats happening to the computers?

Virus attack. everyone has been doing virus scans and malware scans.
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There ain't nuthing wrong with TD2 a little drop in latitude won't fix.
Link

Just cuz the wave came blazin' off Cape Verde doesn't mean it won't have to work as it traverses the Atlantic.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
2501. Dakster
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


It's a satellite estimation. Its not official in terms of NHC advisory guidelines. It is a reference tool.


Gotcha - thanks... However, at times the NHC quotes CMISS and other "estimation" products in their discussions.

If it is that low TD2 seems to getting itself in order quite fast. It does look a lot better on IR then it did earlier today - but not that good as Acemmet pointed out.
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2500. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
TD/02L/A


MARK
14.6N/32.8W
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W456, looks like y'all in the Leeward islands will get a good amount of rainfall from the Twave at 53W
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Quoting Engine2:


I'll start randomly scanning some of the blog pages and validate source code. I'm also an IT Professional - anyone have any idea around what page they started experiencing virus like symptoms?


There is a poster "walshy" from earlier today. My computer was blocking his avatar picture. Just had a little red X there.

Also post 1903 by keeperofthegate. My computer gave me a warning on that one not aving a security certificate. My computer would not show the images he had posted. Just 2 little red x's.
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Quoting RufusBaker:
I bet the NHC shifts the track farther to the west at 11

Why?
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2494. Patrap
Quoting hurricanehanna:

mai thank ya cher!



Merci, beaucoup madame,..anytime
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting Acemmett90:
Guys and sox fans you ahve to read this
Link


I don't want to usually talk sports, but Kevin Youkilis is dumb and deserved to be thrown down by Porcello.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Yes

whats happening to the computers?
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Quoting Dakster:


Is that official?

996mb 51kt?


It's a satellite estimation. Its not official in terms of NHC advisory guidelines. It is a reference tool.
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Quoting Vortex95:
Did Ted just change his name??????

lol no. In early '07 I forgot my pass on Cybrted and had a new email. I made a new account, but then for some reason I figured out my password on cybrted not to long after.
Some reason I logged onto that one instead of this one. Very confusing.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
I bet the NHC shifts the track farther to the west at 11
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Quoting Patrap:


Look to the right of this page,..under How to post a Blog,Links and Images.


------------------------------------------->

mai thank ya cher!
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Quoting TexasWynd:
what is this trojans/malware or virus saying? so i know what to look for? i remember other day something popped up but don't remember what it said or was. Is it effecting the computer in such a way?

Yes
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No long term predictions here, I agree with the NHC track, seems like a good mix of the reliable models. Strength wise, I think it may be a bit higher before weakening.
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2483. Patrap
Quoting hurricanehanna:
hey, how do you post maps/images on here?


Look to the right of this page,..under How to post a Blog,Links and Images.


------------------------------------------->
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have him on ignore. always talking BS
I thought so, too. Thanks for the input.
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2480. Dakster
Quoting Acemmett90:
MY GOD!!!
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 AUG 2009 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 14:37:42 N Lon : 31:08:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.3 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +1.3C Cloud Region Temp : -31.1C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Is that official?

996mb 51kt?
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hey, how do you post maps/images on here?
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I personally think that TD2 center of circulation is relocating under the heaviest convection. This does not mean its a new COC, just that it has jumped to the heaviest center of convection.
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Oh here ya are the twom tone talk! looks like 02 is gaining weight out there!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Look at history. The only systems that start out near 15N and make it all the way across into the Caribbean have been in years when we have had very strong ridges of high pressure all the way from the Azores to Florida.

It was my position days ago and still is today that TD2 or Ana will not enter the Caribbean. Whether it reaches the East coast of the US remains to be seen.


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
When do we anticipate F landfall?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Falling apart ? I think you might need to get new glasses. Looks better than it has all day.

I have him on ignore. always talking BS
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Quoting Barbados:
Stormdude77 we may have some problem in less than 10 days if these models are right.


hopefully not
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NHC Advisory : 03
Name : TWO
Type : TROPICAL DEPRESSION
Position : 14.6, -30.4
Heading (degrees) : 275
Motion Speed (kts) : 10
Central Pressure (mb) : 1006
Maximum Sustained Winds (kts) : 25
Maximum Wind Gusts (kts) : 35
Valid time : 21:00:00 GMT, August 11, 2009
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what is this trojans/malware or virus saying? so i know what to look for? i remember other day something popped up but don't remember what it said or was. Is it effecting the computer in such a way?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Again, we can't accurately say for sure where these storms will end up. The next trough coming to the East Coast will be in six days. The current trough or weak frontal boundary in the Eastern US will end up creating some type of weakness in the A/B High. How big and at what strength will TD2 be is yet to be determined. I think its laughable to say for certain what will happen. Again skirting through the posts a lot of people seem reasonable.
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Nice COC on this WPAC Invest
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She's looking happier, rounder tonight.

If TD2 can hold together another day or so, looks like SAL might lessen.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
Quoting reedzone:
Possibilities this week and next week

I'm predicting an active period for the next few weeks. Possibly 3-4 storms this month.

4. Maybe it fizzles and goes nowhere.
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Quoting sebastianflorida:
Looks like nothing going on tonite in the tropics, and whatever is left of TD2 is falling apart, another poof!
Falling apart ? I think you might need to get new glasses. Looks better than it has all day.
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..
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Quoting sebastianflorida:
Looks like nothing going on tonite in the tropics, and whatever is left of TD2 is falling apart, another poof!


What are you smoking?
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Wow 02 is really kicking it tonight!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.