TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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2556. amd
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I need to ask a ? I downloaded ABP and noscript but since i did I don't get no ones avatar or the ,- or flag or nothing. Have I not set it right? I don't know how to do this stuff, still learning. Furturemet said they where good. Can someone help me? I hope i don't get banned for writing about this but I didn't know where else to go.

Sheri


with noscript, you have to turn each of the scripts that you want on manually.

on my firefox browser, the no script options can be modified in the bottom left hand corner.

keep doubleclick, specificclick, and googlesyndcation scripts turned off, and everything will work just fine.
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


I am not saying that you were predicting it to happen one certain path, but to say there are three paths it will most likely take is almost the same as making a prediction.

Given that TD2 is a rather small storm. It is quite possible for it to strengthen rapidly or weaken rapidly. Now this cyclone reminds me a lot of Tropical Storm Chris in 2006. There are a lot of differences like location and atmospheric conditions, but just the sheer size of the circulation is similar. So these high intensity fluctuations are a lot more likely than a larger storm (Hurricane Ike 2008).


Oh I wasn't referring to TD2, though I mentioned that a small trough would recurve it.. Again, it's all speculation. Will be interesting to see what really happens.
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Quoting reedzone:
Whoaa.. no need for names, I did nothing to you to deserve such profanity. I'm straight thank you. Anyways, anything could happen with this potential storm, I do have a gut feeling that this might be a Northeast problem. though who knows, it could take a Dean (2007) for all we know :P


don't sweat it...won't be here long, I'm sure...
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alaina1085

You've got mail
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
all the are moving to the west now.. one of the model is crazy..look at this crazy model i never see one model do this before..


Bud, that's the XTRP, which is a model that is based on the current movement of the system. It's showing where the system would go if it followed the same movement of the next 6-7 days.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
all the are moving to the west now.. one of the model is crazy..look at this crazy model i never see one model do this before..


thats the extrap model in reponse to a possible movement a little south of due west
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Jason I think that is the xtrap
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2549. Greyelf
Wow, they worked fast on that troll. Too bad he got quoted making it pointless to remove the original post.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
all the are moving to the west now.. one of the model is crazy..look at this crazy model i never see one model do this before..


Really not surprised. I have never bought a recurvature for this system considering how strong the ridge will be building in the coming few days.
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2546. Ldog74
Yea the CIMSS tends to overestimate things based on blips of convection. The numbers will go down as it assumes a more TD like appearance.
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Quoting reedzone:
That analysis was NOT A PREDICTION.. It was speculation from the models.. Though I am making this bold statement that it most likely won't recurve until it reaches 60W. Models build a strong ridge after a small trough recurves TD2. So we'll see what happens, the East Coast needs to watch that certain African wave.


I am not saying that you were predicting it to happen one certain path, but to say there are three paths it will most likely take is almost the same as making a prediction.

Given that TD2 is a rather small storm. It is quite possible for it to strengthen rapidly or weaken rapidly. Now this cyclone reminds me a lot of Tropical Storm Chris in 2006. There are a lot of differences like location and atmospheric conditions, but just the sheer size of the circulation is similar. So these high intensity fluctuations are a lot more likely than a larger storm (Hurricane Ike 2008).
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Quoting kmanislander:
WOW !


What's got your attention there Kman?
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I need to ask a ? I downloaded ABP and noscript but since i did I don't get no ones avatar or the +,- or flag or nothing. Have I not set it right? I don't know how to do this stuff, still learning. Furturemet said they where good. Can someone help me? I hope i don't get banned for writing about this but I didn't know where else to go.

Sheri
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
all the are moving to the west now.. one of the model is crazy..look at this crazy model i never see one model do this before..


HWRF is out to lunch! lol..
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Whoaa.. no need for names, I did nothing to you to deserve such profanity. I'm straight thank you. Anyways, anything could happen with this potential storm, I do have a gut feeling that this might be a Northeast problem. though who knows, it could take a Dean (2007) for all we know :P
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Quoting Lafreniere16:
When does the next update on TD2 come out


11PM
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Quoting sammywammybamy:



CAN SOMEONE PLEASE POST TD2'S MODELS ..

thank you..


Refer to post 2505...
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2538. Engine2
Quoting kmanislander:


There was also an imposter for CCHSW that used CCHSVW in his handle.


Ok thanks I'll check that too

I don't want to tie up the blog with this so if anyone else has any additional posters or specifically post numbers (that would be more helpful) that they believe may contain malware, please shoot me an email and let me know. Thanks
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2537. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting sammywammybamy:



CAN SOMEONE PLEASE POST TD2'S MODELS ..

thank you..


725

WHXX01 KWBC 120034

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0034 UTC WED AUG 12 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090812 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090812 0000 090812 1200 090813 0000 090813 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.8N 31.1W 15.1N 33.3W 15.3N 35.8W 15.5N 38.5W

BAMD 14.8N 31.1W 15.3N 33.3W 15.8N 35.9W 16.3N 39.0W

BAMM 14.8N 31.1W 15.4N 33.3W 15.8N 35.7W 16.3N 38.6W

LBAR 14.8N 31.1W 15.4N 33.4W 16.2N 36.0W 16.9N 39.1W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090814 0000 090815 0000 090816 0000 090817 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.8N 41.2W 17.0N 47.8W 19.1N 55.0W 21.8N 63.1W

BAMD 17.4N 41.8W 20.0N 46.6W 23.8N 49.8W 26.2N 49.8W

BAMM 17.0N 41.3W 18.8N 47.4W 21.3N 54.0W 24.4N 60.4W

LBAR 17.9N 42.1W 20.6N 47.4W 25.0N 50.6W 29.4N 47.2W

SHIP 41KTS 49KTS 49KTS 43KTS

DSHP 41KTS 49KTS 49KTS 43KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 31.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 29.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 26.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


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After analyzing satellite imagery, satellite estimate data, and the latest observations, I would have to say that Tropical Depression 2 should now be Tropical Storm Ana. With this impressive convective burst becoming more collocated with the center and increasing satellite estimates, it appears to have breached tropical storm status.
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WOW !
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2532. WxLogic
We'll see what NHC will say about this system at 11PM or in about 4o to 40 min.

I do believe that based on SAT obs that ANA is here, the COC is relocating closer to the main intense convection... if you notice it has slowed some and it has expanded some compared to earlier.

I don't foresee the dry/SAL being an issue with this one as it has enough energy to generate convection and keep it away from the center.

If it can keep that convection going it will have not problem reaching those numbers as estimated by ADT.
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This is my website's forecast...I just simply have a hard time believe a weakness will develop like people are saying..the setup doesent seem to be loosening up.

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2529. BtnTx
I have purchased the AVG Security Suite for my entire home network set of computers. No problems here, no worries.
Yes I pay a lot, but I have no problems & no worries.
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***Troll Alert***
Quoting Acemmett90:

and here's billy's QS
I have a QuikScat?? lol
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good night
while the wave near 53w has diminishes in convection,and now appears to be more of a rain maker for the central antilles, i have now shifted my attention to another area of mid to low level circulation near 11N 46W. this maybe associated with a surface trough or an unanalyed tropical wave. the spin in that area is really vigorous and can be seen quite easily on RAMSDIS
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Quoting AndrewsBack:
Someone please tell that little child to turn his hat around and he "Might" get a tiny bit more respect.


?? Are you talking about WS?
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2523. Greyelf
Well, he won't be long for this place... (re 2520)
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Quoting Engine2:


Thanks for the additional info, I'm browsing through all the source code from todays blog and the points where people suggested from yesterday. I did see an imposter post for keeperofthegate where there was an additional 't'. I'll analyze that more closely.


There was also an imposter for CCHSW that used CCHSVW in his handle.
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Good news, Aussie. Thanks for that. :)
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11410
Quoting reedzone:
Possibilities this week and next week

The wave that the GFS, CMC, EURO, and GDFL develop is off the coast of Africa and it looks like a circulation is already trying to get going. While Tropical Depression 2 could strengthen to Tropical Storm Ana overnight, dry air will keep it at a range of 40-50 mph. at best. After TD2 "Ana" gets away from the SAL, windshear should start to increase and the storms chances of survival are not that good. However, the wave that is exiting the coastline today will be in a more moist environment and possible already has an anticyclone developing over it. All the models that develop it, are aggressive and make it "Hurricane Bill". The track is simple until it reaches the Islands by the Weekend. I drew three possible paths that it could take.

1. The potential storm finds a strong trough and pulls out to sea, but not before affecting Bermuda. This storm cannot go out to sea until it passes 60W due to a strong ridge of high pressure building back after a small trough curved TD2 "Ana".

2.
The storm becomes a historic Hurricane as it goes through the Carribean for a short amount of time, hits Haiti and weakens. After the potential storm gets back out into the Atlantic, the storm strengthens and feels a trough, pulls northward, misses Florida and hits the Northeast.

3.
Strength wise, this could be the worst case scenario. The potential storm continues heading westward in the Carribean, becomes a major Hurricane and gets into the GOM, hits Florida, similar to Hurricane Ivan (2004)

Photobucket

Of course it can go to Mexico or the western GOM, but I think those three possibilities are a bit more likely.. Can't really predict something that hasn't even developed, this is all speculation. We'll see what happens through the coming weeks as both these systems (Ana, Bill) possibly form. Claudette might develop in 2 weeks according to the GFS. Too far out to make that prediction.. All of this is really just telling us that Hurricane Season has finally started in the Atlantic Ocean. I'm predicting an active period for the next few weeks. Possibly 3-4 storms this month.


I'd pick 3, similar to Ernesto's track hitting SFLA and then hitting the Carolinas.
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So are the ADT numbers just really off?
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When does the next update on TD2 come out
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Quoting Weather456:


not alot but I'll take anything at this point


Well WU has your island getting approximately an inch of rain on Thursday

Link
2514. Engine2
Quoting Elena85Vet:


There is a poster "walshy" from earlier today. My computer was blocking his avatar picture. Just had a little red X there.

Also post 1903 by keeperofthegate. My computer gave me a warning on that one not aving a security certificate. My computer would not show the images he had posted. Just 2 little red x's.


Thanks for the additional info, I'm browsing through all the source code from todays blog and the points where people suggested from yesterday. I did see an imposter post for keeperofthegate where there was an additional 't'. I'll analyze that more closely.
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so is the weekend rain event for florida dissipating? havent heard much lately on it
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Virus attack. everyone has been doing virus scans and malware scans.


The only thing my scan found was 1 tracking cookie. Whatever it is, my setup seems immune
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That analysis was NOT A PREDICTION.. It was speculation from the models.. Though I am making this bold statement that it most likely won't recurve until it reaches 60W. Models build a strong ridge after a small trough recurves TD2. So we'll see what happens, the East Coast needs to watch that certain African wave.
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Quoting FloridaTigers:


I don't want to usually talk sports, but Kevin Youkilis is dumb and deserved to be thrown down by Porcello.


Not to be talking sports, but if watched the previous game and this game then you would understand why he did what he did. He is an emotional player and his emotions got the best of him.

Center of circulation looks to be under the heaviest convection now. The CIMSS is best for a hurricane or stronger storm. It is an estimation of strength dependent on satellite appearance.
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Quoting stormdude77:
W456, looks like y'all in the Leeward islands will get a good amount of rainfall from the Twave at 53W


not alot but I'll take anything at this point
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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