TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
TD2 looks pretty good. I am sure it will be upgraded to 30 kts at the next advisory. Cute little cirrus outflow fringe developing in several directions.
she had that outflow boundary last night also right as she started picking up her appearance.
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BenBlogger,

I get that too. It's been doing it for days now.
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2602. Ldog74
Models will shift east and west a million times before this TD actually hits or misses anywhere. Theyre just playing out different scenarios based on minute shifts in weather patterns. During the next model run they may shift back north, stay in the same position or continue to shift to the south. If a trend starts to develop, then the models may be on to something. Regardless, models arent going to be able to have a good handle on the situation until the TD gets a little stronger, assuming it does.
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2601. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
looks like first tropical storm of 2009 atlantic hurricane season has formed

02l/TD WILL BECOME 02L/T.S./ANA
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2600. WxLogic
00Z NAM is trending on every run at a stronger Bermuda high getting established along the US E Coast.
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Quoting HurricaneKing:


I dont think it's the extrap. Most other model sites have the extrap going wnw. It also shows up on the ensembles page as a couple purple lines and a white line. I'm thinking it's an error on the model maps.


Usually the extrap is black. Thats what threw me off.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:



I am going to Take a Guess on where it could landfall on the CONUS

From Key West to USA/CANADA Border..


I was more precise. I gave 2 exact locations.
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Apparently "JeffMasters does not have any blog entries". can somebody tell me where I am ?
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Quoting Weatherkid27:
looks like everything is a go for TS Ana at 11 correct?

Looking half-way decent



Not really, They will probably wait till 5 a.m. to make that call. Navy would have had ANA on there site by now if it were to get upgraded at 11 p.m.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
This is sad, I mostly lurk and I don't recognize 1/2 of the names on here tonight
yup, unfortunately a lot of the "regulars" are staying away due to the computer issues.
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Quoting alaina1085:


Yea just went back and saw that. LOL. I saw the purple line and thought it was HWRF before I saw the other lighter purple like that was actually the HWRF... had a blonde moment. haha.


I dont think it's the extrap. Most other model sites have the extrap going wnw. It also shows up on the ensembles page as a couple purple lines and a white line. I'm thinking it's an error on the WU model maps.
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< I do not think any one need another Jeanne, it's form suddenly at the east on lesser antilles..and i lived it!! September 14 2004...practically, everyone who have they farm lost them....heavy floods...etc..really sad.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
This is sad, I mostly lurk and I don't recognize 1/2 of the names on here tonight


I have been reading this blog for 3 years, and yes I have to agree lots of new names this year.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:



Frances? Jeanne? Katrina?

Lol ...

Nope Andrew.Ops I said it again.
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2586. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting kmanislander:


There was also an imposter for CCHSW that used CCHSVW in his handle.
i did'nt think anyone else notice that been layin low
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2585. yamil20
Quoting kmanislander:
2561. jasoniscoolman10 9:20 PM EST on August 11, 2009

Ah, are you OK ??


LOL!!
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Can we get an Admin in here, PLEASE !!! There is a little permanent clean-up needed !
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looks like she's trying to wrap another band around her.
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This is sad, I mostly lurk and I don't recognize 1/2 of the names on here tonight
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Quoting Chicklit:

Yeay! Go Fireman!!! We luv you guys!!!


HAHA!!
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Quoting Ldog74:
Yea the CIMSS tends to overestimate things based on blips of convection. The numbers will go down as it assumes a more TD like appearance.


Only if it's not a depression and it's a tropical storm. Anyways, the center looks to have relocated under the convection now and is probably why the satellite estimations are going gung ho over the system. Also again I will reiterate, that it doesn't take much for a smaller circulation to rapidly strengthen. If the storm goes further south in latitude, it will only do great wonders for its conditions with a warmer SST path and less dry air. So a further south and west track the stronger storm it will become then currently modeled.
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looks like everything is a go for TS Ana at 11 correct?

Looking half-way decent

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Quoting Engine2:


Ok thanks I'll check that too

I don't want to tie up the blog with this so if anyone else has any additional posters or specifically post numbers (that would be more helpful) that they believe may contain malware, please shoot me an email and let me know. Thanks

Yeay! Go Fireman!!! We luv you guys!!!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
If it's to hit land, I'm taking two guesses: Florida or North Carolian
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Uh oh the models are taking if more due west.
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Uh oh guys looks like Guyana ( in South America ) has to watch out for this tropical cyclone, lol, just look at this link, btw, how do you post the picture as an image, not as a link.

Link
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I see once we have a little action, the trolls have come out in full force to try and disrupt the blog. DOWN WITH THE TROLLS
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Quoting Progster:


That "out to lunch" "model" is extrapolation.


Yea just went back and saw that. LOL. I saw the purple line and thought it was HWRF before I saw the other lighter purple like that was actually the HWRF... had a blonde moment. haha.
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2561. jasoniscoolman10 9:20 PM EST on August 11, 2009

Ah, are you OK ??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting reedzone:
Whoaa.. no need for names, I did nothing to you to deserve such profanity. I'm straight thank you. Anyways, anything could happen with this potential storm, I do have a gut feeling that this might be a Northeast problem. though who knows, it could take a Dean (2007) for all we know :P
Why do you feel the need to respond to this attack ? This seems like someone to put on ignore. I have no idea if you are gay or not and I don't really care. Don't even answer him.
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the latest models have 99L starting to to take the curve at 40W, in response to a weakness in the high. it would not surprise if that weakness never materialises and it first take a dip to the south first and then continue on a west track in respnse to a strenghening B/a high
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Quoting alaina1085:


HWRF is out to lunch! lol..


That "out to lunch" "model" is extrapolation.
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2563. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
000
FZNT02 KNHC 112153
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
AMENDED FOR ATLC FORECAST

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NEAR 14.6N 30.4W 1006 MB AT 2100 UTC
AUG 11 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25
KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS LESS THAN 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 14.7N 34.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE...45 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 15.0N 39.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS 18 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 16.0N 44.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 18.0N 49.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.0N 54.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.


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Link
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Quoting presslord:


don't sweat it...won't be here long, I'm sure...

Made it on my ignore list in record time.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11424
um, security!
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Quoting Stoopid1:


What's got your attention there Kman?


A post that has been deleted.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
2556. amd
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I need to ask a ? I downloaded ABP and noscript but since i did I don't get no ones avatar or the ,- or flag or nothing. Have I not set it right? I don't know how to do this stuff, still learning. Furturemet said they where good. Can someone help me? I hope i don't get banned for writing about this but I didn't know where else to go.

Sheri


with noscript, you have to turn each of the scripts that you want on manually.

on my firefox browser, the no script options can be modified in the bottom left hand corner.

keep doubleclick, specificclick, and googlesyndcation scripts turned off, and everything will work just fine.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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