TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Not bothering to post the link.
It's the Navy site.
Ha! Patrap we had the same idea at the same time. That's kinda scarey!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Were are you guys hearing Ana?
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I'm not sure Ana has form since the NHC dont normall go ADT numbers, rather T numbers from SSD or TAFB.
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2652. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
How are we pronouncing 'Ana'?
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I doubt they will upgrade because the T numbers have been going up this evening--although they could. I think the NHC will wait to make sure the convection persists and get a look with the first visible shorts--and that means 5 am. But upgrading from 25 kts to 30 kts is warrented

I think they saw what they needed to see
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1339
Quoting BenBIogger:
Apparently "JeffMasters does not have any blog entries". can somebody tell me where I am ?


It's a bug in the site, just refresh a few times.
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2646. Engine2
Quoting sammywammybamy:


no!

I have internet Explorer ..

It happens to me too...


It has to do with database connectivity - it there are a large amount of people accessing/refreshing the page the database can only handle so many connections request at a time. Therefore the pointer will return null or No blog when the number of connections are maxed out. Thats my best diagnosis.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


It was the wave behind TD2..what ever its name will be....LOL


Thanks, just gets confusing with all thats going on. And yes... Ouch!
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Ana has to be the most anticipated storm ever on this blog!
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could someone post a link to where Ana is found
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


i did, thanks a bunch
hpe you had a great bday...and it will be right on the edge if your "wish" comes true, a named storm.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
TS ANA is here


Bout time!

Quoting HurricaneKing:


It worked then I refreshed and it went red x. Left the blog and came back and it was working again. O_O


0.o weird..
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Evening Folks,
Looks like TD2 is intensifying. Looking quickly over the blog, we expect the NHC to give it a name and take away its number? - sorta the opposite of the "Secret Agent Man"
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lol now that's funny... literally as soon as reedzone says that there is no Ana, keeper says there is! Not trying to take anything away from you reedzone I enjoy your forecasts
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Quoting alaina1085:


Which system is this?



Image had an x on it, didnt show up for me. Ill take your word on it tho.


It was the wave behind TD2..what ever its name will be....LOL
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Quoting TampaSpin:
This will hurt if this comes true......OUCH!

Evening Tampa...ouch! :)
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Quoting Stoopid1:


I'll do so as well. I'm not a pro, but I do know a good bit about code. As for when it started, I don't know, I wasn't here when the virus started.

As for TD2, I'll go out on a limb here and slightly agree with the ADT estimates, I'll go a little lower. I do think we have Ana right now y'all.


Hey, let's get this a guy some extra brewskis, because he called it.
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2628. amd
on a weather related comment, I've never seen such discrepancy between the non-dvorak analysis and the dvorak analysis in terms of a storm intensity.

why does the non-dvorak analysis analyses TD2 with 25 kts winds (Ships), and the dvorak analysis analyzes TD2 with winds at 51 kts?
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Quoting alaina1085:


Which system is this?



Image had an x on it, didnt show up for me. Ill take your word on it tho.


It worked then I refreshed and it went red x. Left the blog and came back and it was working again. O_O
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2626. ackee
can somebody post link show all of the current modes run on TD#2
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TS ANA is here
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1339
Quoting TampaSpin:
This will hurt if this comes true......OUCH!



Which system is this?

Quoting HurricaneKing:


See the extrap is in the middle of the models.


Image had an x on it, didnt show up for me. Ill take your word on it tho.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
This is sad, I mostly lurk and I don't recognize 1/2 of the names on here tonight


Hey PanhandleChuck, been lurking myself quite a bit this year too. Looks like we finally have something to talk about. Amazing how the models continue their trend more to the West....
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Quoting BenBIogger:
Apparently "JeffMasters does not have any blog entries". can somebody tell me where I am ?

It happens to me too, when I hit refresh it says he doesn't have any blog entries and sometimes when I try to quote someone, and it shows the "Your comment:" box, it doesn't show who I was quoting but just a blank space. So then I have to go all the way up and try and quote him again.
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2617. amd
Quoting alaina1085:
BenBlogger,

I get that too. It's been doing it for days now.


it has to do with firefox 3.5. It has nothing to do with any potential malware or viruses. Not sure though why the message pops up though.
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Quoting reedzone:


Not really, They will probably wait till 5 a.m. to make that call. Navy would have had ANA on there site by now if it were to get upgraded at 11 p.m.


Thanks, I had forgotten that they do an upgrade on the Navy site first
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See the extrap is in the middle of the models.
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This will hurt if this comes true......OUCH!

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html

Check out future Miss Ana....
(I can't get the image to appear)
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
2612. WxLogic
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks like first tropical storm of 2009 atlantic hurricane season has formed

02l/TD WILL BECOME 02L/T.S./ANA


Hehe... finally... I was going to start doubting my analytical abilities hehe.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
Quoting reedzone:


Not really, They will probably wait till 5 a.m. to make that call. Navy would have had ANA on there site by now if it were to get upgraded at 11 p.m.


I would agree with this assessment. No named storm until 5am tomorrow morning. I understand it's speculation, but its best to see what happens day by day and then landfall will be here before you know it.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks like first tropical storm of 2009 atlantic hurricane season has formed

02l/TD WILL BECOME 02L/T.S./ANA


Link Please!!
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Quoting WeatherStudent:


hey man?
did you get me mail from last night ?
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html

check out this - can't get the image to post
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.