TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting louisianaboy444:
breathe boy, I said breathe! lol

Well someone posted something saying they upgraded it and i took their word for it...last time i do that


1st place I go is the NHC
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting TampaSpin:
If you all have not seen this loop.....if this comes true.....alot of people will be hurting.....in the ConUs.


My sister and her 15 year old daughter are leaving St. Thomas on Thursday, for good. I'm getting goosebumps looking at that loop. My Niece was about 18 months when Marilyn hit. It was BAD.
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Quoting Acemmett90:
who ever ripped this thing to begin with is an idiot
N

Nice tropical storm characteristic for our TD!
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Quoting Becca36:

Thank you!


Your welcome Becca :)
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
2702. Patrap
Quoting Dakster:
What are the chances that Ana makes landfall in Florida on or about August 24th? Now that would be scary as heck.



No more scarier than Gustav running 89% of Folks outta NOLA Last Aug 29th on the 3rd anniversary of K
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128236
breathe boy, I said breathe! lol

Well someone posted something saying they upgraded it and i took their word for it...last time i do that
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Models are pushing TD2 further west, and I have to agree. The ridge should be a good bit stronger about 3-5 days out, more so than I think models were originally calling for. We'll see how that plays out.
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2698. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
wow all of a sudden the Central and Eastern Pacific cyclones are struggling.
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2697. Becca36
Quoting alaina1085:


I think you should be ok then. I think most peoples if affected right away like Drake. But dont quote me on that.

Thank you!
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2696. Dakster
What are the chances that Ana makes landfall in Florida on or about August 24th? Now that would be scary as heck.
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It definately looks good enough to be a TS but i don't think they classify it because the LLC is displaced to the east of the convection
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Great appearance right now, but we all know what happened this morning. Never doubt a storm until it is truly dead.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
T-MINUS 19 MINUTES


MILA says No Go
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
whew! people lol

breathe boy, I said breathe! lol
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3482
Looks like it's starting to draw from the ITCZ again.
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whew! people lol
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Quoting TampaSpin:
If you all have not seen this loop.....if this comes true.....alot of people will be hurting.....in the ConUs.


yeah, that would suck big time... however since the system is so far out... doubtful that is going to be the case
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The wave coming off Africa will not be a depression at 11 :)


Indubitably! Everyone will be jumping on the Bill bandwagin for it, though (I think most already have). I agree it has a good shot at being the next storm, but I'm not gonna jump on it yet. Gonna give it a few days.
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2684. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
ATL022009

DT 1.0
FT 1.5
CI 2.0

---
25-30 knots?
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Quoting Acemmett90:
who ever ripped this thing to begin with is an idiot
He's gone.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Is it named or not i'm confused i thought someone said it was up on the navy site


It's not on the NAVY site. It's still classified as TD2 there.
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Here you go Sammy......yes they seem to be keep pushing WEST.....Not sure it goes out to sea.....i think it might get traped and head West under the building ridge that keeps the further Bill going.....this could be a 1 2 punch for the ConUs

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seeya Kman. me too. it'll all still be here in the morning.
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2679. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128236
Hey anyone can I ask a silly question?????

I was looking at floter 1 and 4 and Is it just me or has TD2 reCOC to the south west..... it sure looks like it is at 14N and 30W????? Or is that just a more wabble and still moving west....

Taco :0)
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I was just looking at the TD2 IR AVN Floater. I click TROP PTS and they has tropical storm symbols. I'm thinking they are going to upgrade it.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Is it named or not i'm confused i thought someone said it was up on the navy site

not yet - still as TD on Navy site
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3482
Night Kman!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting Engine2:


It has to do with database connectivity - it there are a large amount of people accessing/refreshing the page the database can only handle so many connections request at a time. Therefore the pointer will return null or No blog when the number of connections are maxed out. Thats my best diagnosis.


I would agree. I'm surprised that they haven't set up a special DB server for Dr. Master's blog to live on given the amount of traffic it receives.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


B. And b Are the Same thing

Therefore there cannot be the correct answer

TS
Simple mistake
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2671. WxLogic
Quoting hurricanehanna:
She is flarin' up...is it d-max yet?


Is not DMAX yet... that will be tomorrow AM.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Quoting Becca36:
Good evening everyone.I am a new name however I've been lurking for a little over a year.I know everyone's probably tired of talking about the malware but does anyone know does it affect your computer right away or does it take awhile? I had that pop-up occur but I kept hitting close and when it was gone closed the WU window and did a full scan and all that was found was 1 tracking cookie. Tia


I think you should be ok then. I think most peoples if affected right away like Drake. But dont quote me on that.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Is it named or not i'm confused i thought someone said it was up on the navy site
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2667. WxLogic
Hehe... so much suspense with this one.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Were are you guys hearing Ana?


I'm thinking it's in anticipation of the 11pm NHC advisory...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
She is flarin' up...is it d-max yet?
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3482
I'm out for tonight. Catch you all tomorrow.
Have a good one.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15813
2663. Becca36
Good evening everyone.I am a new name however I've been lurking for a little over a year.I know everyone's probably tired of talking about the malware but does anyone know does it affect your computer right away or does it take awhile? I had that pop-up occur but I kept hitting close and when it was gone closed the WU window and did a full scan and all that was found was 1 tracking cookie. Tia
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Quoting Weatherkid27:
lol now that's funny... literally as soon as reedzone says that there is no Ana, keeper says there is! Not trying to take anything away from you reedzone I enjoy your forecasts


Well the convection needs to persist in order for the NHC to name it.. I'm pretty sure we will have Tropical Storm Ana by morning. :)
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Quoting jlp09550:


It's a bug in the site, just refresh a few times.


You can also just hit the back button.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
2657. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I doubt they will upgrade because the T numbers have been going up this evening--although they could. I think the NHC will wait to make sure the convection persists and get a look with the first visible shorts--and that means 5 am. But upgrading from 25 kts to 30 kts is warrented.
they may hold off to see what current convection holds out for 2am updated
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Not bothering to post the link.
It's the Navy site.
Ha! Patrap we had the same idea at the same time. That's kinda scarey!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.