TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Do not wait such change of the cone of death from NHC...they are the keepers of the ignorance!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2755. Dakster
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just awaiting the updated forecast track. Expect a southward and westward adjustment this time.


Is this the real slim shady? or the imposter?

I do agree with you either way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2754. Patrap
Quoting jdjnola:


That was fun. You also forgot to mention Ike heading towards the vicinity of Houston on nearly the 3rd anniversary of Rita. In retrospect, we're probably lucky Ike didn't head towards us, since the storm surge from it passing by alone was enough to flood South Plaquemines...


Ike showed many,..again..that a Large CV storm in the GOM can have far reaching effects on folks Hundreds of Miles from the Center.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127695
11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 11
Location: 14.8°N 31.5°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2751. Walshy
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Any Guess on What State on the Conus?

My thoughts

Florida 50%
N. Carolina 30%
S. Carolina 19%
Georgia 0.5% (Cause StSimmonsGuy Has a Super Deflector Sheild)
Maine 0.000001



Your thoughts?

Take out Maine and add Bermuda.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting louisianaboy444:
"Louisiana...Louisiana....They trying to wash us away...they trying to wash us awayyyyyyy


I was listening to "when the Levee Breaks" the other night
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Man if it just would have had one or two more pieces of brocoli for lunch we would have Ts ANA so close...

Thats the problem, shes no vegan.. she needs some steak! lol.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Just awaiting the updated forecast track. Expect a southward and westward adjustment this time.
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Do you think TD2 possible Anna would hit the Antilles? Dudes, the models are pointing more westernly that yesterday....
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ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


Thats what it was earlier today....either it was wrong earlier or its wrong now.....because TD2 is the best its ever looked.
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2742. Patrap
The 35 west rule Hold true again..no surprise there.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127695
2741. Dakster
I'm waiting for the NHC to change the "Cone of Death" for what will be Ana.
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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
Goodnight!
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Man if it just would have had one or two more pieces of brocoli for lunch we would have Ts ANA so close...
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1342
I bet its Ana by 5AM then.
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you are right, alaina. i just saw two places FINALLY take down their tarps and put on some shingles.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


evening tim, thank you very mcuh for sending your update to me privately via email. ir eally appreciated that, :)


Weather Student -

HAPPY BIRTHDAY : )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2735. jdjnola
Quoting Patrap:



No more scarier than Gustav running 89% of Folks outta NOLA Last Aug 29th on the 3rd anniversary of K


That was fun. You also forgot to mention Ike heading towards the vicinity of Houston on nearly the 3rd anniversary of Rita. In retrospect, we're probably lucky Ike didn't head towards us, since the storm surge from it passing by alone was enough to flood South Plaquemines...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting louisianaboy444:
"Louisiana...Louisiana....They trying to wash us away...they trying to wash us awayyyyyyy


Passes the valume..LOL :p
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
2733. WxLogic
Well seems tomorrow is D day... but looking and well is doing now... I'm pretty sure it'll be able to take full advantage of DMAX tomorrow AM.
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At least the raise the wind speed to 35, and adjust models southward.
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Thanks Yamil!
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Quoting RMM34667:


My sister and her 15 year old daughter are leaving St. Thomas on Thursday, for good. I'm getting goosebumps looking at that loop. My Niece was about 18 months when Marilyn hit. It was BAD.


If they took out Vacation Insurance i would use it....thats just my opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2729. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
000
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Quoting truecajun:
i just realized that you can send people messages. i had a few from last year that i didn't know were in there. sorry for not replying to anyone. most messages were responses to questions i asked about hurricane damage that we had from Gustav. i was annoyed that no one answered me on the blog, but now i feel better.


Haha, your learning alot today arent ya?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
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2726. Patrap
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127695
2725. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP092009
3:00 AM UTC August 12 2009
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Nine-E (1007 hPa) located at 14.9N 130.2W or 1250 NM west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 14.7N 133.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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Do some of u guys catch the 11 pm advisories?
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"Louisiana...Louisiana....They trying to wash us away...they trying to wash us awayyyyyyy
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1342
11pm is out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2721. yamil20
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.5 WEST OR ABOUT
475 MILES...765 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 31.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN

NNNN


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting louisianaboy444:
breathe boy, I said breathe! lol

Well someone posted something saying they upgraded it and i took their word for it...last time i do that

I understand....I always go check for myself too
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2719. A4Guy
still TD2 on NHC site
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its out, still TD2, getting better organized, winds up to 35
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up to 35 MPH so getting closer to Ana.
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i just realized that you can send people messages. i had a few from last year that i didn't know were in there. sorry for not replying to anyone. most messages were responses to questions i asked about hurricane damage that we had from Gustav. i was annoyed that no one answered me on the blog, but now i feel better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Any Guess on What State on the Conus?

My thoughts

Florida 50%
N. Carolina 30%
S. Carolina 19%
Georgia 0.5% (Cause StSimmonsGuy Has a Super Deflector Sheild)
Maine 0.000001



Your thoughts?


Did you see the loop i posted at post 2653..go loop that its virus free.....it hits South Florida and all the way up the Coast Line to the Outer Banks....if that was to happen..WOW!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2714. amd
no ts yet. winds now at 35 mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 11
Location: 14.8N 31.5W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.5 WEST OR ABOUT
475 MILES...765 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.8N 31.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN

NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pat,

The sad thing is about 50% of people around here still have blue tarps on the roofs!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting Patrap:



No more scarier than Gustav running 89% of Folks outta NOLA Last Aug 29th on the 3rd anniversary of K


AMEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2709. jdjnola
Some intense convection building tonight, but it all seems to be off-center...
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Quoting Patrap:



No more scarier than Gustav running 89% of Folks outta NOLA Last Aug 29th on the 3rd anniversary of K


Oh gosh.. how I remember. Waiting 7 hrs in line for a generator sucks.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
2707. Dakster
Quoting Patrap:



No more scarier than Gustav running 89% of Folks outta NOLA Last Aug 29th on the 3rd anniversary of K


So true!
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
breathe boy, I said breathe! lol

Well someone posted something saying they upgraded it and i took their word for it...last time i do that


1st place I go is the NHC
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.