TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2806 - 2756

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

For those who can't see the new tracking map..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am from Puerto Rico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm gonna watch some Baseball for a while...BBL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2800. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
697

WTNT42 KNHC 120300

TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009

1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009



CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT BURST OF DEEP

CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...WITH THE

CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS. EVEN THOUGH

DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...A RECENTLY-

RECEIVED ASCAT PASS FROM 0000 UTC SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY

TO 30 KT. EVEN MORE RECENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A

FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DEPRESSION MAY NOW BE

CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Forget Anna and Bill for a bit.

It looks like SouthEast Texas will finally get some much needed RAIN next week.

You can't even go inner-tubing in some of the rivers North of San Antonio now because water levels are too low. We need to re-fill the reservoirs and lakes. Looks like several days worth of good rain coming.

Maybe we can even get off of landscape watering restrictions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaMishy:
How can you predict that so soon?


I didn't predict it the GFS long range model did......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Puerto Rico is not an state but is a U.S. territory four million american citensens 30 miles east of us are the U.S. Virgin Islands with 150,000 thousand people as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting truecajun:
good night everyone.
Good night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Impressive outflow with TD 2
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2793. Patrap
No one can claim they know any landfall areas for TD 2.
If they think they can,well..then they are Fools in a Fools pool swimming in the deep end without any sense of purpose.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125421
Quoting sammywammybamy:
They Didnt Change the Track.... HOW DUMB..


I know, they should have gotten their degrees in Meteorology and devote their lives to predicting hurricanes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Night Ace and true cajun
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2790. jdjnola
Quoting Patrap:


Ike showed many,..again..that a Large CV storm in the GOM can have far reaching effects on folks Hundreds of Miles from the Center.


God forbid a large Cape Verde storm should make its way into the simmering GOM this year...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Ana is going to hit Florida, I will put money on it that it's going to be Central Florida next Friday. That is the day I start my long needed vacation. Airports will be closed and everything will be delayed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


So Based on History , Steering ..

You think that ana Could hit FL?

Or at least thats what some of the models say??

Cause every model run i have seen takes something into florida..


Thats too early to say!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2786. WxLogic
Well see what the 00Z GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS/CMC all say tomorrow AM in regards updated track(s). Have a nice evening...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
Link

The massive wave which may spawn Bill according to the models is now exiting the coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2784. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
The Greater Antilles is one of three island groups in the Caribbean. Comprising Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico--
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
Welp. NHC has it missing the Lesser Antilles...


BTW, where are the Greater Antilles located?
The Greater Antilles are the four largest islands of the Antilles. They are Cuba, Hispagnola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic), Jamaica and Puerto Rico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good night everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ike showed many,..again..that a Large CV storm in the GOM can have far reaching effects on folks Hundreds of Miles from the Center.

Yes definately we had gusts near Hurricane Strength at my home in South-central Louisiana
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1339
Looks like little to no change from 5pm in terms of track or strength.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2779. Patrap
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator
Time of Latest Image: 200908120215

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125421
000
WTNT42 KNHC 120300
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...WITH THE
CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS. EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...A RECENTLY-
RECEIVED ASCAT PASS FROM 0000 UTC SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY
TO 30 KT. EVEN MORE RECENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DEPRESSION MAY NOW BE
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

WHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER-
DEFINED...THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
LOCATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/11...AS THE
CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5 SHOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO BEGIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE HWRF SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE
MODEL SUITE...IMMEDIATELY TAKING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD PATH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SPREAD OF THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY SMALL...EVEN IN THE LONGER
RANGE...WHICH ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE HWRF SOLUTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST
EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS A RESULT
OF INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH. THIS INCREASE IN
SHEAR SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM. LATER
IN THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF A
PRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WITHIN THE MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH. THIS INTERACTION SHOULD INDUCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM BEGINNING DAY 4. SHOULD THE CYCLONE TAKE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND. THEN
AGAIN...SHOULD THE CYCLONE MAINTAIN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...THE
SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE LOWER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.8N 31.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 33.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.8N 35.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 14.9N 37.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 15.2N 40.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 16.5N 45.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 51.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 56.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2775. Dakster
Welp. NHC has it missing the Lesser Antilles...


BTW, where are the Greater Antilles located?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2774. ackee
why is the updated track takening so long for TD#2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would never leave my home land because the hurricanes. They are part of our culture and life.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


If they took out Vacation Insurance i would use it....thats just my opinion.


No they LIVE on St. Thomas but are MOVING here to Tampa on Thursday!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what is your deflector shield?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
11PM forecast map out.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting truecajun:


i sure am. look i used the quote button. this is the only blogspot i go to, so i'm not really too familiar with them.


Yay! :) Yea im not a big blogger either. Took me a while to get the hang of things in here also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


Did you see the loop i posted at post 2653..go loop that its virus free.....it hits South Florida and all the way up the Coast Line to the Outer Banks....if that was to happen..WOW!
How can you predict that so soon?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caribbeansurvivor1:
Do you think TD2 possible Anna would hit the Antilles? Dudes, the models are pointing more westernly that yesterday....
Which island are you on ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i just know that at some point this season a hurricane is coming up the east coast. The east coast cape verde time is upon us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2764. Walshy
Quoting Walshy:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Any Guess on What State on the Conus?

My thoughts

Florida 50%
N. Carolina 30%
S. Carolina 19%
Georgia 0.5% (Cause StSimmonsGuy Has a Super Deflector Sheild)
Maine 0.000001



Your thoughts?

Take out Maine and add Bermuda.



O wait. Bermuda is not a state. : P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
14.8 NORTH currently
14.6 NORTH 5 pm

Has been moving a little north of due west.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
Quoting alaina1085:


Haha, your learning alot today arent ya?


i sure am. look i used the quote button. this is the only blogspot i go to, so i'm not really too familiar with them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2761. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


Is this the real slim shady? or the imposter?

I do agree with you either way.


He's the real deal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2759. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER MAKA (CP012009)
3:00 AM UTC August 11 2009
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Maka (1009 hPa) located at 13.9N 173.3W or 280 NM southwest of of Johnston Island has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-northwest at 8 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.8N 176.2W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Weather Student - HAPPY BIRTHDAY : )

It your Birthday......you can finally take your training pants off and be a big boy now.......BRO just kidding....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2757. WxLogic
Quoting TampaSpin:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


Thats what it was earlier today....either it was wrong earlier or its wrong now.....because TD2 is the best its ever looked.


Hehe... they're holding off... pretty sure they want to see further convective consistency before naming it.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
Do not wait such change of the cone of death from NHC...they are the keepers of the ignorance!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2806 - 2756

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.