TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting sporteguy03:



???? TD2 is organizing did you read the 11PM discussion as far as threat out to sea seems possible but that is still up to debate. If you are comparing conditions in August to July and June not much comparison really.


Exactly..and recurvature out to sea continues to look less likely. I don't see it happening the ridge is standing and not poised to move anytime soon.
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Quoting 19N81W:
where is Ana?


11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 11
Location: 14.8N 31.5W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

Me too
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Quoting 19N81W:
where is Ana?

lat=19.0
long=-81.0

Sorry. Had to do it.
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2853. Ldog74
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Well there were 7, or 8 major hurricanes that made landfall in GA in the 1800s. One in 1881 is disputed. The last one was in 1898.

So youre 111 years old I'm assuming?
I had totally forgotten about Hurricane 7 in '98. I thought 1893 was the last year a major one had hit GA.
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2852. 19N81W
where is Ana?
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Quoting 19N81W:
never went for me...it went yesterday though...I guess they needed a TAF or forcast before they could legally depart....the mets in Honduras are back to work...


Well good to hear the strike is over.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting palmasdelrio:
Anyone think "Ana" will get close to Puerto Rico?


I hope so! (ducks and covers)
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Quoting 19N81W:
like I said before...nothing can stay organized this year...it is an odd one...the biggest threat is a tiny TD that is going to recurve out to sea...not that its a bad thing...just that it keeps us all in drought or close to it...

I'm assuming you live in Grand Cayman by your handle"coordinates", we had a real nice hard rain in South Sound this afternoon lasted about hour, we need some more though , I'm 44 lived here all my life and this is the hottest summer I can recall here.
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2848. jdjnola
Quoting palmasdelrio:
Anyone think "Ana" will get close to Puerto Rico?


Too soon to tell; "Ana" is hundreds into thousands of miles from PR at the moment.
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2847. 19N81W
never went for me...it went yesterday though...I guess they needed a TAF or forcast before they could legally depart....the mets in Honduras are back to work...
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2846. sctonya
Since it is before midnight, Happy Birthday WeatherStudent.
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Quoting 19N81W:
like I said before...nothing can stay organized this year...it is an odd one...the biggest threat is a tiny TD that is going to recurve out to sea...not that its a bad thing...just that it keeps us all in drought or close to it...


How was the flight to Honduras?
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting ddbweatherking:
I am sorry if anyone already answered this question for me or not but how do you post pictures as images and not links. Sorry for the bold, it's just to get the attention, nothing was meant to be taken offensive.

Click "Image", enter URL, click OK, click OK twice more if the pic isn't huge (otherwise "80%" works well, for example).
Also useful if you want to link the original: Highlight the entire picture code from the less-than to the greater-than, clock link, paste it in, click "OK". Now the image can be clicked to open full size in a new tab.
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Anyone think "Ana" will get close to Puerto Rico?
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I still think its going to recurve.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Ike showed many,..again..that a Large CV storm in the GOM can have far reaching effects on folks Hundreds of Miles from the Center.

Yes definately we had gusts near Hurricane Strength at my home in South-central Louisiana

We even had gusts in the 60 MPH range take down trees in St Tammany during the morning before Ike's landfall that evening. Surprised me...and reminded me of the winds that can come rainbands.
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DEAR GOD! Look at the mass behing td 2!
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Quoting 19N81W:
like I said before...nothing can stay organized this year...it is an odd one...the biggest threat is a tiny TD that is going to recurve out to sea...not that its a bad thing...just that it keeps us all in drought or close to it...



???? TD2 is organizing did you read the 11PM discussion as far as threat out to sea seems possible but that is still up to debate. If you are comparing conditions in August to July and June not much comparison really.
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TD2 appears to be south of the next forecast point. Convection is consolidating very nicely and it looks like it is intensifying at a good clip in the past few hours. I'd expect Ana to be named 2AM or 5AM. The NHC may be a little off on the intensity, days 4 and 5 I don't think this system will be as far north as they forecast, therefore as the discussion supports shear would be alot less than if it was north like they believe it will be. Point is..it should be stronger than 45 knots in a few days.
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Quoting 19N81W:
like I said before...nothing can stay organized this year...it is an odd one...the biggest threat is a tiny TD that is going to recurve out to sea...not that its a bad thing...just that it keeps us all in drought or close to it...


Are you a pilot!!!!!!!!?

I flew a Cessna once and loved it! :D
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Link
click on the lat/lon on this link and watch TD2 take a gradual movement a little south of due west.
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Hi everyone. When do we expect "Bill" to become an invest? I just read back through the blog a page or two and don't really see much talk about it.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
2831. jdjnola
Well it looks like the convection is finally wrapping around the CoC. I'm guessing that Ana--er TD2--is battling the dry air in the NW quadrant by wrapping some moisture from the ITCZ into the mix. Any changes in shear notwithstanding, I think this storm's short-term fate mostly depends on how far it moves North of the ITCZ.
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Well, i sure hope it doesn't go that far north for the swell fetch to not reach me. Seems like a pretty small storm. If that happens, then Bill please, redeem Ana!
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2828. 19N81W
like I said before...nothing can stay organized this year...it is an odd one...the biggest threat is a tiny TD that is going to recurve out to sea...not that its a bad thing...just that it keeps us all in drought or close to it...
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"THIS INTERACTION SHOULD INDUCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM BEGINNING DAY 4. SHOULD THE CYCLONE TAKE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND. THEN
AGAIN...SHOULD THE CYCLONE MAINTAIN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...THE
SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE LOWER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM."
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:
The track seems to be almost the same

5 pm:


11pm:


"THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE HWRF SOLUTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY."
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2805. caribbeansurvivor1 10:10 PM CDT on August 11, 2009
I am from Puerto Rico.

Awesome, I have always wanted to go there...:)
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I am sorry if anyone already answered this question for me or not but how do you post pictures as images and not links. Sorry for the bold, it's just to get the attention, nothing was meant to be taken offensive.
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Howdy, everyone. Been lurking all year waiting for the real action to begin. Looks like it's here big time.
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2822. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
02L/TD/A
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I don't see any northward movement whatsoever.I know 14.6 to 14.8 is neither here nor there , but I just don't see it.
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Quoting Patrap:
..If it keeps on Raining the Levee's gonna Break..


G'night..


Night Pat, cya tomorrow.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
2819. Ldog74
Quoting sammywammybamy:


if this Becomes a TS..

Wont it be the One of the Smallest Or the Smallest Tropical Storms In the Atlantic Basin?


I dont think marco's record in 2008 is going to be broken any time soon. 10 Miles is pretty ridiculously small.
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2818. Patrap
..If it keeps on Raining the Levee's gonna Break..


G'night..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128631
The track seems to be almost the same

5 pm:


11pm:
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2816. RevInFL
Quoting raziorizzo:
If Ana is going to hit Florida, I will put money on it that it's going to be Central Florida next Friday. That is the day I start my long needed vacation. Airports will be closed and everything will be delayed.


Glad Ana doesnt want to be land bound. I live in Central Florida and we really don't need any storms this year. We are remembering Hurricane Charley who tore through here on a mission.
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2814. jdjnola
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Ike showed many,..again..that a Large CV storm in the GOM can have far reaching effects on folks Hundreds of Miles from the Center.

Yes definately we had gusts near Hurricane Strength at my home in South-central Louisiana


When Ike was closest to Nola, I drove to work in South Plaquemines through tropical storm force winds. Left work early morning that day; if I had left in the afternoon, I would have been driving through water...
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2813. Ldog74
Speaking of the GA deflector shield, it would be ironic if TD 2 pulled an 1893 Sea Islands Hurricane track..
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I didn't predict it the GFS long range model did......
It's going to change 20 more times before they know where it's exactly going.
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POST 2751

Walshy

I wonder why my computer blocks your avatar?

It's never blocked anyone elses.
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Quoting TexasGulf:
Forget Anna and Bill for a bit.

It looks like SouthEast Texas will finally get some much needed RAIN next week.

You can't even go inner-tubing in some of the rivers North of San Antonio now because water levels are too low. We need to re-fill the reservoirs and lakes. Looks like several days worth of good rain coming.

Maybe we can even get off of landscape watering restrictions.

We need some of that here. They are now arresting and fining people for excessive water use and the dam is 26% full.
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Track moved slightly north.

11 pm
INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.8N 31.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 33.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.8N 35.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 14.9N 37.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 15.2N 40.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 16.5N 45.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 51.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 56.5W 40 KT

5pm
INITIAL 11/2100Z 14.6N 30.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.7N 32.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 14.7N 34.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 14.8N 36.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 15.0N 39.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 16.0N 44.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 18.0N 49.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 21.0N 54.5W 45 KT
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
For those who can't see the new tracking map..

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.