TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2906 - 2856

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

Happy birthday, WS! You deserve a good one after all the drama that gets started on the blog that you have to go through.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm only seeing minimal spiral banding features right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceman55:
is that eye or i need glass mm ?????


It has no eye. Its not that well organized.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthALWX:
Look's like Ana to this eye... Looking very symmetrical .... small .. Very well could intensify quickly.

Aqua AMSR-E caught it well. (This does not mean it is cleared)

2-day-old plot!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2894. 7544
hi all jsut got back wow anna looks like at least 50 mph this hour and has good shape

happy birth day ws

tampa spin when i click on your links i get a pop up that says this link taakes you outside wu click yes to go is this new addition to the blog thanks all will be watching anna a dmax
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look's like Ana to this eye... Looking very symmetrical .... small .. Very well could intensify quickly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2888. sky1989
Happy Birthday Weather Student; I hope you had a good one!:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
wow she getting very big.


Rule #1: NEVER call a girl "big"!! trust me..I have learned from my mistakes. Instead say that Ana has a nice figure right now. lol..I just had too =P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:
TD 2 better hurry or it's going to get swallowed by a bigger animal.



Looks more imposing in motion here.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/SAT_TROPATLEAST/anim8ir.html

Thanks for putting that up. Seems that it may be a little higher in latitude than GFS has been spinning it up at all day. Of course, the convection doesn't show us any circulation center for a wave...on land...etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Happy birthday WeatherStudent!


So how old are you today? 47? 48? You don't look a day over 36...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Damn, Little Future Ana is going through puberty quickly! lol! shes petite though, but behind her is a beast!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceman55:
mm she look good and big mom

Wow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2876. yamil20
Quoting WeatherStudent:


thanks, but it's almost up, unfortunately. :(


hey happy birthday bro, mine is on the 28, i am hoping for no storms to come close to miami, but lets see what happens, enjoy your birthday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the wave behind " future Ana ". its gargantuan. do the models pick up on this? or not? if so, where would they take it?
just a thought, we are approaching the cape verde season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD 2 better hurry or it's going to get swallowed by a bigger animal.



Looks more imposing in motion here.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/SAT_TROPATLEAST/anim8ir.html
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting gordydunnot:
Look at the Davork in motion at the nhc I believe on the last frame we can see the center of circulation, slightly south of projected path T.S. at 2:00am I guess.

I saw that too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was supposed to be editing, quoting myself. Sleepy...G'Nite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:


thanks, but it's almost up, unfortunately. :(

Happy birthday WeatherStudent!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mikatnight:
Definitely stronger than just an hour ago...


looks like its starting to ventilate as well, could mean rapid intensification , especially with those small systems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look at the Davork in motion at the nhc I believe on the last frame we can see the center of circulation, slightly south of projected path T.S. at 2:00am I guess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:


thanks, but it's almost up, unfortunately. :(


Whadya get...anything special?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Slight deviations to the north or south will make all the difference in the next few days with TD2.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh yeah, can't forget WS. Happy birthday bud. I know we have had our issues but that's the past.

alright G'Night all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yep, that wave behind TD2 has quite a sizable convective area going as compared to TD2's little area. Not that it really means anything...yet.

Unfortunately I cannot seem to find any good satellite pics of any bigger than this.
From here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Definitely stronger than just an hour ago...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
. WeatherStudent, Just want to say Hope you had a Happy & Great Birthday, keep safe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyways...I'm off to get some sleep. I'll try and check back early in the AM. Have a good night all..make sure our system out there behaves, doesent do anything crazy ;p

G' Night
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ana's still in her mothers tummy. She has not been born yet, Her scheduled birth date is August 12th, between 2AM and 8AM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
After a severe storm walloped Kentucky, our utility company sent us to the hardest-hit area to get power restored. I was picking up fallen wires when a car horn blared at me.
“Hey!”, I yelled at the driver. “Didn’t you see all those red flags, signs, and barriers back there?”
“Oh yes,” he replied. “I got by them alright. It’s your truck that’s in the way now.”

From Glen Stauffer, submitted to Reader’s Digest (July, 2009)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sporteguy03:



???? TD2 is organizing did you read the 11PM discussion as far as threat out to sea seems possible but that is still up to debate. If you are comparing conditions in August to July and June not much comparison really.


Exactly..and recurvature out to sea continues to look less likely. I don't see it happening the ridge is standing and not poised to move anytime soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2906 - 2856

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron