TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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3006. Drakoen
Quoting hunkerdown:
welcome, how goes the PC ?


fixed it today
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
Link
Remnants of TD#2 moving towards Florida once again on the 00Z run

..So GFS shows a strong, building ridge..a weakening system (TD#2) .. and an intesifying system (African wave). Those are the variables; lets sit back and see what happens!!
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I dont know about the track long term but anything close to td2 was moving wsw on the visible today. With the counter clock wise direction of the large system moving of Africa do you think this could be pulling td2 south of the projected path.
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Quoting Drakoen:
GFS continues to show a major hurricane impacting the Lesser Antilles
welcome, how goes the PC ?
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Quoting SouthALWX:
to my eyes the COC is on the eastern side of the convection, probably being sheared just a little.


That could be. Most eyes on here are better trained then I, but I'm learning. I will watch the area your looking at as well.
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3000. Drakoen
GFS continues to show a major hurricane impacting the Lesser Antilles
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30565
to my eyes the COC is on the eastern side of the convection, probably being sheared just a little.
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2998. Ldog74
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Yeah, but that one in the GOM is close to us....

At least its not near Dan and I.. Pcola doesnt need any more. But then again, nowhere on the gulf coast does.
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Contrary to the general rule of stronger the storm the further northward track, in this case it could be stronger the storm further southern track also.
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I was just looking at the points too and if I'm correct about the COC, it will have made a fairly decent jog south of the projected track.
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Quoting SouthALWX:
It is stronger than the 18z. I don't normally put much stock in 18 Z runs, if i recall it doesnt have all the data the others do. I could be mistaken and if I am .. we'll call it superstition ix nay on teh teen-eight-ay FS-g-ay .. sorry my latin's rusty


You're right...the 00Z and 12Z model runs are the most reliable
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I think i see an eye!!1



(sorry, had to. I'll check up on this in about 7 hours but then i'm going on vacation. I better see major hurricanes ana and bill when i get back on saturday based on all the hype with these models. :/
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It is stronger than the 18z. I don't normally put much stock in 18 Z runs, if i recall it doesnt have all the data the others do. I could be mistaken and if I am .. we'll call it superstition ix nay on teh teen-eight-ay FS-g-ay .. sorry my latin's rusty
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From what I'm looking at, I think it's moving a little south of west as well and the COC looks to me to be on the southern section of the deepest convection, or on the bulls-eye in this case. All just my opinion.
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Quoting PcolaDan:

ANd here I stared at it for 5 minutes trying to see the difference. :) Maybe it's bed time.


Sorry again folks. I had the two different ones, but...I dunno. Sorry Dan - very funny reply though...
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Quoting winter123:


lol major hurricane bill! we dont even have ana yet! Though we should based on its satellite appearance.


From the models perspective at that time frame.. No Bill or Ana yet currently.
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What are we waiting NHC to be a hurricane to named ANA?
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
2988. centex
Can anyone post data showing not TS Ana?
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Quoting hunkerdown:
if you did there would be serious problems


Yup lol
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Quoting reedzone:
Major Hurricane Bill continuing to head west towards the Lesser Antilles. NOTE.. This run is much stronger then the 18Z.

Link


That is also one strong ridge!!
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Quoting reedzone:
Major Hurricane Bill continuing to head west towards the Lesser Antilles. NOTE.. This run is much stronger then the 18Z.

Link


lol major hurricane bill! we dont even have ana yet! Though we should based on its satellite appearance.
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2984. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

02L/TD/A
MARK
14.6n/32.9w
AS OF 345 UTC
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
its look like to me its moving wsw or the t.storm moving wsw on this tropical D

It is moving slightly south of due west imo.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

correct . they both stopped on 03:45 UTC

Right, so why is there even an attempt to determine a difference between the images? There shouldn't be.
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00Z gfs keeps "ana" low in lat ... "bill" blows up so far .. "ana" close to haiti and still under easterly flow .. may be becoming a bigger player.
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Quoting extreme236:


I see no change.
if you did there would be serious problems
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Quoting mikatnight:
Sorry folks...didn't work as planned. I'll get rid of it.

ANd here I stared at it for 5 minutes trying to see the difference. :) Maybe it's bed time.
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:

Those are both the 11:45 images...

correct . they both stopped on 03:45 UTC
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Quoting mikatnight:
Ok, this is the 11:15pm image...



and this is the 11:45pm image...


you be the judge.


I see no change.
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Quoting mikatnight:
Ok, this is the 11:15pm image...



and this is the 11:45pm image...


you be the judge.
look at the date stamp, those images are from the same time
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Quoting mikatnight:
Ok, this is the 11:15pm image...



and this is the 11:45pm image...


you be the judge.

Those are both the 11:45 images...
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


incrediable reed, it just continues to forecast teh development of this system, im above onboard with it already, that's for damn sure, yourself?


Yeah I'm pretty sure a storm will form, not sure on the track after it gets to the Islands. Happy Birthday by the way.
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Sorry folks...didn't work as planned. I'll get rid of it.
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2969. centex
Quoting WeatherStudent:


incrediable reed, it just continues to forecast teh development of this system, im above onboard with it already, that's for damn sure, yourself?
Please stay in school. LOL
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Hurricane I guess if that interpolation is correct you and chhs are in agreement, thanks thats why I asked.
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Major Hurricane Bill continuing to head west towards the Lesser Antilles. NOTE.. This run is much stronger then the 18Z.

Link
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this is the 11:45pm image:

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2965. 7544
Quoting gordydunnot:
I think the gfdl got the virus on the last run it killed everthing.


lol thanks i thought i was going nuts
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Quoting PcolaDan:


I like this, only one in GOM.


Yeah, but that one in the GOM is close to us....
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Quoting SouthALWX:
Look for a slight WSW motion in the nearterm. Looking at steering and the best convergence divergence I think that's likely. I think it's finally coming out from under the area of NW shear.
I been saying that earlier, Hurricane Ana by 8-11pm tomorrow night.It's 11:15PM where I live.
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Finally some good excitement. Gonna *try* and watch Serenity (for like the 3rd time), get back to you guys in a couple.
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I think the gfdl got the virus on the last run it killed everthing.
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Quoting acCane08:
Interesting graphic showing the climatology of storms that passed near to where TD#2 formed.

Link

It's safe! (NWS Tampa Bay)


I like this, only one in GOM.
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2957. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
HEY WS your b day wish is comment 3282 on the docs last blog 5 down from last post
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Quoting 7544:


does anyone know here now tia


Yes, it's a new WU feature due to all the virus reports. Any link you click now WU informs you you are leaving the site and are you sure you want to do it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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