TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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3106. centex
Is it 2am yet?
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3105. Drakoen
Quoting Skyepony:


Not out of the question. We just saw that in the EPac.. Tight little Felicia, too close to big ol juicy Enrique who was too big & blobby to to get wrapped up before she tapped him & sucked him dry..


LOL! Is that innuendo? Those last few words are quite dirty...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30828
02L is putting on quite a show....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

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3103. JRRP
CMC
looks new orleans
Link
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I just looked at the 00z GFS... and that

is the absolutely worst track a hurricane can take..

All of the caribbean ring islands, including Haiti which would be.... devastating to say the least, then to Florida, and up the east coast where rain and tornadoes would go from GA to MA.
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3101. centex
Quoting superweatherman:

Like I said last night to block this web page(antivirusbestscanv5.com) from your router settings or internet security software. And I think if you still having the same problem the (AD) that is tricking you that you have a virus just press (alt, ctrl, del) 2. go to (processes)tab and end the (iexplorer.exe) if you using Microsoft browser or (firefox.exe) if you using Firefox.
Thanks for repeating it.
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3099. JRRP
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Models are a guide but not 100%.
We dont know what will happend in one week.

One day ago models pull ANA WNW clearly away from Antilles today we not sure if can get north of the islands.

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Sky you have a way with words even better than Oz.
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Quoting 7544:
6th run same 'ouch again



Link

im not trying to scare anyone but does anyone else see that tropical system right off the coast off North Carolina at the end of the loop on the 28th of August. Of course you can't count of anything 2 weeks out but it is something to watch for a wave to come out from Africa in a few days to a week. btw how long does it usually take for a wave to get from the coast of Africa to the east coast. THANKS
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3094. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Drakoen:


The UKMET has Ana swallowing the wave off the coast of Africa.


Not out of the question. We just saw that in the EPac.. Tight little Felicia, too close to big ol juicy Enrique who was too big & blobby to to get wrapped up before she tapped him & sucked him dry..
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Quoting Drakoen:


The UKMET has Ana swallowing the wave off the coast of Africa.

That seems unlikely. Thoughts?
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3092. lparky
I do need to add that I always read StormW's blog... very educational and where do I get me some orange shades like yours. :)
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3090. Drakoen
Quoting reedzone:


The NOGAPS also continues to deny formation of Bill. I might be wrong but I think that's the only model not developing the African wave.


The UKMET has Ana swallowing the wave off the coast of Africa.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30828
Quoting Drakoen:
NOGAPS 00z gives Ana enough depth to recurve out to sea.


The NOGAPS also continues to deny formation of Bill. I might be wrong but I think that's the only model not developing the African wave.
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3087. Drakoen
Quoting Funkadelic:

So you really think me and you will be affected? But agree with you that the models seem to have a good general idea of where this thing may end up. Regardless if this affects Florida, expect gas prices to rise.


I should have been more specific. I meant the GFS has a good idea of the track a week out.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30828
Thats a good one hunker down the only one I have seen do a better job than that is Bryan Norcross the only difference is the last line always goes through S.Fl. Although he usually waits to it gets a little closer.
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3085. lparky
and that will be my last post unless a Cat 3 or higher is headed for Htown... I prefer to defer you you folks.
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3084. 7544
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:


whhaaa do we have twins coming off of africa
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
3083. centex
Quoting extreme236:


The NHC said that it is close to tropical storm strength themselves. Could it be a TS now? Sure, but we have no proof to back that u
I guess just the delay in official statements. Like all the exact statements they will make, they will pre-time it in a few minutes. In my mind don't fudge it, we learned to tell time long time ago. Science is not about corrupting data for public.
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What we do know is that the GFS shows a trough eventually lifting the potential storm northward after reaching 60W-70W. It's gonna be an interesting week tracking Ana tomorrow and possibly Bill in a few days. Claudette may appear late next week IF the GFS is right.
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Well you got this blocker up front, he's gunna clear the way for the running back Bill McCain. Now Bill sees the clear path he's gunna run straight through the gap, shoot the gap. then then BOOM He'll explode in this area and it's smooth sailing from there, bob, TOUCHDOWN.
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3080. Drakoen
NOGAPS 00z gives Ana enough depth to recurve out to sea.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30828
3079. lparky
Quoting WeatherStudent:
I know weatherman


I have been off here since last September when Ike rendered us powerless for 21 days, but it's good to see all of ya'll here and especially, JFV and "ikester"...

Looking forward to reading your comments and insight (and not commenting back since I know I am not a met or wannabe...) to get educated... and Happy Bday, WS!

WS, you take alot of grief (most of it deserved...) but I would love nothing better than my five year old son to have such a passion for something as you do, in your case, weather.

That, he could in the future, could come on here during his formative years, and actually learn somethng, instead of the alternative of what most teens do, speaks volumes about how good a kid you really are. (think there were 7 commas in that RO sentence)

Follow your passion, WS, you will end up doing it...

And, I do love the contributions from Ike, Drak, Patrap, and even press(y)... good stuff, fellows! and thanks to the majority of you all!

and I look forward to hearing all of your voices:)
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First the storm is in the middle of nowhere so there is no need to over hype it so people sitting on the fence who wouldnt react unless it had a name. Also from a historical point they would want to get it right if possible.
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3076. Drakoen
The NHC position of TD2 is correct. TD2 seems to be doing well and I expect Ana at any time in the morning.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30828
Quoting reedzone:
Here's a diagram I made out of SPECULATION.. Possible paths, not a prediction. However, I'm pretty sure it will make it to the islands as the high will be too strong to recurve the African wave known as "Bill".

Photobucket
where's John Madden when you need him :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's a diagram I made out of SPECULATION.. Possible paths, not a prediction. However, I'm pretty sure it will make it to the islands as the high will be too strong to recurve the African wave known as "Bill".

Photobucket
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Quoting jeffs713:


Too far out to tell. Give it a couple of days.

I would also check Weather456's blog, since he is a professional met in the Caribbean, and will likely have more island-specific info. (this blog tends to favor CONUS data, and has a strong bias towards SE FL, much to my chagrin)
Quoting hunkerdown:
ahhhh...I would say it is more than too far out since it has not even formed yet.

damn, there goes that rationality again...

Thanks for the answers
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Quoting centex:
Why wait until 2AM, we know TS Ana already here. We must be smarter than NHC. That is what I can't figure out. Conservative is only explanation, but severe storm predictors being conservative seems unwise.


The NHC said that it is close to tropical storm strength themselves. Could it be a TS now? Sure, but we have no proof to back that u
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No no no =] Im saying if the GFS is right on all other accounts, I dont think the Storm would follow that path. And more than saying watch out jamaica I'm saying dont freak out Tampa =]
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Quoting centex:
Why wait until 2AM, we know TS Ana already here. We must be smarter than NHC. That is what I can't figure out. Conservative is only explanation, but severe storm predictors being conservative seems unwise.

Severe storm predicting is all about getting the warning out and saving lives. This is completely different. Really what is the difference right now to us if this is a 40 mph TS or a 35 mph TD. The main thing is that the NHC gets the forecast correct..and in the long run I have more faith in them then anyone else!!
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3068. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

So are you saying it could possibly affect Jamaica in that time frame or is it too far out to tell?


Too far out to tell. Give it a couple of days.

I would also check Weather456's blog, since he is a professional met in the Caribbean, and will likely have more island-specific info. (this blog tends to favor CONUS data, and has a strong bias towards SE FL, much to my chagrin)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

So are you saying it could possibly affect Jamaica in that time frame or is it too far out to tell?
ahhhh...I would say it is more than too far out since it has not even formed yet.

damn, there goes that rationality again...
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Quoting centex:
I've seen lots of post about virus but no details which virus and or instructions how to remove it. if not blocked. Bloggers should make more helpful post. Bloggers, who don't add value, submit data for analysis are not helpful. This is not a chat room

Like I said last night to block this web page(antivirusbestscanv5.com) from your router settings or internet security software. And I think if you still having the same problem the (AD) that is tricking you that you have a virus just press (alt, ctrl, del) 2. go to (processes)tab and end the (iexplorer.exe) if you using Microsoft browser or (firefox.exe) if you using Firefox.
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Quoting SouthALWX:
One thing I dont agree with is "bill" gaining quite so much latitude from Haiti to cuba ... I really hate when the GFS shifts from 4 to 2 frames a day toward the end of the run. It does weird stuff then -.- tomorrow when we get that time frame for four frames I'll feel better about it.. According to steering at that time I'd expect it to stay south of haiti ... Could be the GFS poleward bias or it could be the GFS' compensating for it's large size and strength feeling that poleward tug.

So are you saying it could possibly affect Jamaica in that time frame or is it too far out to tell?
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I wouldn't be bashing the NHC =] theres no hurry to upgrade for one, for two the COC is displaced East at the moment.
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3062. 7544
Quoting centex:
Why wait until 2AM, we know TS Ana already here. We must be smarter than NHC. That is what I can't figure out. Conservative is only explanation, but severe storm predictors being conservative seems unwise.


yeap bloggers always call it first lol good job everyone keep it up
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting hunkerdown:
not trying to scare the gulf residents, but remember the models had Ike in Florida's sights for many runs...in other words, don't be worried /stressed about these runs when it is still so far off.


Exactly. The "center" of a projected track 5 days out has something along the lines of a 200-300 mile error probability.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting centex:
Why wait until 2AM, we know TS Ana already here. We must be smarter than NHC. That is what I can't figure out. Conservative is only explanation, but severe storm predictors being conservative seems unwise.
one word, WRONG
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One thing I dont agree with is "bill" gaining quite so much latitude from Haiti to cuba ... I really hate when the GFS shifts from 4 to 2 frames a day toward the end of the run. It does weird stuff then -.- tomorrow when we get that time frame for four frames I'll feel better about it.. According to steering at that time I'd expect it to stay south of haiti ... Could be the GFS poleward bias or it could be the GFS' compensating for it's large size and strength feeling that poleward tug.
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3057. centex
Why wait until 2AM, we know TS Ana already here. We must be smarter than NHC. That is what I can't figure out. Conservative is only explanation, but severe storm predictors being conservative seems unwise.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
dammit, guys, yet anotehr florida landfaller on this latest run, not good, it's been picking on florida for several runs now, stay tune i guess
not trying to scare the gulf residents, but remember the models had Ike in Florida's sights for many runs...in other words, don't be worried /stressed about these runs when it is still so far off.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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