TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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3156. 7544
Quoting Drakoen:


That was 2 hours ago


ok thanks
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
3155. Drakoen
Quoting 7544:


hi drake i may be wrong here but if you click on forcast points arent those ts sysbols where td2 is on now tia

Link


That was 2 hours ago
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
3154. 7544
Quoting Drakoen:
even though the convection is flaring nicely the low is slightly exposed.k


hi drake i may be wrong here but if you click on forcast points arent those ts sysbols where td2 is on now tia

Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Good night Gordy.
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3152. Drakoen
even though the convection is flaring nicely the low is slightly exposed.k
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833

Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
I think the nhc has a light staff tonight. There probably trying to get a little sleep tonight before all hell breaks loose. Well off to never never land one and all. Peace out.
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2009081200-two02l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Anima tion

If you look at the GFDL it shows something trying to spin up and head nw in the GOM can't see where it ends though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:

why does it black out?


To protect it from "flare" from sunrise/sunset from the satellite's perspective.
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3147. centex
Quoting extreme236:


You can't put out a 5pm update if you dont start on it a bit early.
Just don't put future timestamp on it, not professional IMO. Not asking for exact but putting future stamp on it is not scientific. So we bloggers must substact a minumim of 30 min to know when they made determination. Really makes a difference sometimes.
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red circle in the Pacific.
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
3145. Drakoen
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Drak what do you think of the CMC taking that storm up to Louisiana at 144 hrs?


It is derived from that wave near 55W. At this time there is not enough computer model support for that system.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
Quoting gator23:

The vorticity model you linked to ends at 144hrs shows no storm near New Orleans.


Look again ... it is the wave near 54W that the model develops ... once it hits the GOM. Lotsa isobars, looks more like Texas ... look at last frame.
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Drak what do you think of the CMC taking that storm up to Louisiana at 144 hrs?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gordydunnot:
We got you homeless


Yeah. My bad. :)
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Quoting Drakoen:
Very nice:

Wow I don't know why we still have two yellow circles near the Antilles when they look like just little clusters of cloud associated with TD2, or should we wait till DMAX?
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Does AOI 2 really warrant the yellow?
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3139. JRRP
Quoting Orcasystems:


Take a look at between Galveston and NOLA...

yeah
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We got you homeless
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3137. Drakoen
Very nice:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
Oh great another circle, I guess when all the bloggers wake up tomorrow, it will be insane!Here comes....Bill!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centex:
so we know you can't believe data coming out of NHC. They post data in advance, so we need to adjust there timing with real time. Old news but something they need to fix.


You can't put out a 5pm update if you dont start on it a bit early.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
3134. gator23
Quoting JRRP:


That def. looks like the Texas Lousiana border. yup no N.O.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sky its nice to have a sense of humor we need it now more than ever in this world.
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Quoting gator23:

What storm is that? The run ends at 144 hours


Take a look at between Galveston and NOLA...
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Oops. NOW they get thru. My bad
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3130. centex
so we know you can't believe data coming out of NHC. They post data in advance, so we need to adjust there timing with real time. Old news but something they need to fix.
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Nothing I'm posting is getting thru. That CMC Been showing that same thing for 3 days now. Just not on that model. Shades of Rita. No thank you.
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3128. JRRP
Quoting gator23:

The vorticity model you linked to ends at 144hrs shows no storm near New Orleans.

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In less than a week, alot has changed in the tropical Atlantic. Does any of this relate to the MOJO? TIA for any answers!
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3126. gator23
Quoting Skyepony:
Gourdy~ Thanks, it may just be this sultry weather. It's 81F & well after midnight.

We should be coming up on the GOES sat nightly blackout soon, unless something has changed. I forget where the schedule is..

why does it black out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3125. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. A SMALL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LIMITED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 420 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS MINIMAL.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN
AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN


Area 1: Low Probability of Formation (click to zoom)
A SMALL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LIMITED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
New Orleans? That's more like the Louisiana/Texas line again. Think Rita. Exact place it hit.
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3123. Drakoen
That is the dirtiest comment in my 3 years of being here.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
3122. gator23
Quoting caneswatch:


do you have a link?


its really very early to count on tracks this far out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gordydunnot:
My God that cmc is off the chain it maybe back to its old self. I believe that is the 53w wave that heads toward Texas,and completely crazy with Anna and Bill.


I was just about to say that. they been showing that for 3 days now. I hope not. ALA Rita.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3120. Skyepony (Mod)
Gourdy~ Thanks, it may just be this sultry weather. It's 81F & well after midnight.

We should be coming up on the GOES sat nightly blackout soon, unless something has changed. I forget where the schedule is..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3119. gator23
Quoting Orcasystems:


or Galveston

What storm is that? The run ends at 144 hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathersp:
I just looked at the 00z GFS... and that

is the absolutely worst track a hurricane can take..

All of the caribbean ring islands, including Haiti which would be.... devastating to say the least, then to Florida, and up the east coast where rain and tornadoes would go from GA to MA.


do you have a link?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3117. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
we got us another yellow i see
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
3116. Drakoen
The NHC is closely monitoring the situation off the coast of Africa
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
My God that cmc is off the chain it maybe back to its old self. I believe that is the 53w wave that heads toward Texas,and completely crazy with Anna and Bill.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3114. gator23
Quoting JRRP:
CMC
looks new orleans
Link

The vorticity model you linked to ends at 144hrs shows no storm near New Orleans.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:


Not out of the question. We just saw that in the EPac.. Tight little Felicia, too close to big ol juicy Enrique who was too big & blobby to to get wrapped up before she tapped him & sucked him dry..


I just woke someone up here in my house from laughing so hard. That was hilarious!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED
ABOUT 900 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
Quoting JRRP:
CMC
looks new orleans
Link


or Galveston
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The two is out. Four circles!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 120532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A SMALL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LIMITED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 420 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS MINIMAL.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN
AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3107. Drakoen
CMC has Ana as a decent system just north of Puerto Rico. Again if TD2 takes the southern route it could be strong than anticipated in the face of light shear and increasing SSTs
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
3106. centex
Is it 2am yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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