TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting ddbweatherking:
Can someone please tell me how to post pictures as images and not as links. I am getting desperate.


What I had to do was save the pic and upload it to Photobucket.com Its easy to do that. They'll explain. Then when youve uploaded it click the image to make it big and just to the left it has SHARE THIS IMAGE then click on the html code and that copies it. Then here click image then paste the html code. Sounds more complicated than it is. hope that helps. :)
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Quoting frostynugs:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbT-YpW-44w&NR=1

would it be that?


no, that wasn't it but thank you for looking for me :), the one I mean shows inside the cabin as well as outside and everything going dark and upside down
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Can someone please tell me how to post pictures as images and not as links. I am getting desperate.
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Quoting ktymisty:
Completely off topic , sorry for butting in but I would like some help for a student of mine, I told him about the hurricane hunter mission video that shows a really bad trip ( going in too low or something )...not sure which one it is but I can't find it anywhere......do any of you know which one I mean ( could have come from here but I can't remember where. A link or something would be great, cheers


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbT-YpW-44w&NR=1

would it be that?
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Completely off topic , sorry for butting in but I would like some help for a student of mine, I told him about the hurricane hunter mission video that shows a really bad trip ( going in too low or something )...not sure which one it is but I can't find it anywhere......do any of you know which one I mean ( could have come from here but I can't remember where. A link or something would be great, cheers
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Quoting FLHurricaneChaser:
240 Euro looks to be aiming at Florida


Not good the Euro was the one model that had this future storm recurving before the US. Hopefully these models will take a swing back to the East today. Of course we have to get a storm first before we can really get a grasp on the models.
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1:44 minutes until 1,0,0?
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A couple things I don't like about that ECMWF run. First is it seems to have some kinda blob just offshore the same time CMC showed their thing. And while I do not want anything to hit anyone. I first of all hope that ridge is just far enough east to miss all land.With that big end of run storm. And second, I hope that ridge doesnt build west in time with that storm. But honestly I can barely see the wave that CMC developes.....reaching for the Pepcid AC.
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SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 1002 hPa MSW = 46 kt
ADT: 995 hPa 53 kt Scene: SHEAR
CIMSS AMSU: 1003 hPa 44 kt Bias Corr: 0 (TPC)

35kt = 40mph TS
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Strong systems will move up and along

Weak systems will not.

TD2 still weak, but we will stay up watching the pot come to boil...

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Quoting Claudette1234:
TD2 is a TS, just NHC don't want to named till show clear signs of full develop.


Disagree. TD2 is still weak. Still fully a TD.

Impressive? Yes.
TS? No.
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TD2 is a TS, just NHC don't want to named till show clear signs of full develop.
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Scroll down to post 3163

Tell me what you see...and "have a nice day!" :)
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Quoting centex:
You rely too much on models(forecast). Please explain how TC can form over Africa? The yellow circles are stupid IMO. I see big problems in this type of data.


Yah your right I do give this some thought though, I am only 12 after all, still learning about TCs and how they form, just experimenting, I DO think that the storm in the West African coast will be a TC soon though.... just my opinion.... thanks though, I'll look at maps more as I learn about TC
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Quoting Claudette1234:


Is moving WEST-WEST-WEST

not south or north only WEST


Be prepared to take a bite of crow! :)

I am! :)
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Looks like we may only have at most 12-18 hours left in Hurricane Season 2009 0,0,0 condition.

I am enjoying every final moment I can!
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Is TD2s movement WSW?

If so, shift south, shift west on the tracks!

And for goodness sake, stay out of the GoM!


Is moving WEST-WEST-WEST

not south or north only WEST
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Sure is looking good out there..
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Is TD2s movement WSW?

If so, shift south, shift west on the tracks!

And for goodness sake, stay out of the GoM!
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240 Euro looks to be aiming at Florida

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Quoting serialteg:
im PUMPED


I'm MOVING TO MONTANA!!! Lol. Sorry. Letting off some stress. :)
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im PUMPED
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
I can't believe i looked at the 10 day forecast for my location ( bethesda, Maryland) and it forecasts a chance of storms every single day. I don't think that is too usual.
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TD2 now have signs of weakness,temp of water is down, maybe next report still TD.
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All this TD drama is keeping me up tonight when I'm supposed to be in bed by now. Lol. I just love watching/seeing a TD go through the process of becoming a TS.
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3181. centex
Quoting F5Tornado:
Atlantic Discussion:

We are seeing some limited action in the Atlantic. You may think its in the West, but actually, its in the East currently.



Invest Area 1 will dissapate as it moves over South America. There is no chance in my opinion, of this system becoming a storm, ignore it.
Invest Area 2 is moving NorthWest and conditions for development are starting to come in to place. The SSTs are good, and the system is headed into the bulk of them. Apperently however, the system is still getting moisture and needs time to grow. If the moisture was there I completly guarantee that the system would be Code Orange or Code Red.
As for Invest Area 3, this system is moving West right into the SSTs. I see moderate wind shear in the area, making development hard for this system. However, this could change. This system is still developing and is still disorganized, but as the wind shear dies down, we could see explosive growth in the storm. This is a potent storm already, and soon, maybe in 6 hours or so, may be a Code Orange.
As for TD2, this system is organized and is powerful enough, but is forecasted to move NorthWest over 5 days as a Tropical Storm starting in 6 hours. This is a potential threat to Bermuda, it presents no current threat to the U.S., and won't in the future.But in 6 hours we WILL be seeing Tropical Storm Ana, I Guarantee it.
You rely too much on models(forecast). Please explain how TC can form over Africa? The yellow circles are stupid IMO. I see big problems in this type of data.
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TD 2 is now a perfect example of "CDO" or Central Dense Overcast... a key step on a systems way to forming a central core which when it becomes a hurricane forms into the eyewall.
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Atlantic Discussion:

We are seeing some limited action in the Atlantic. You may think its in the West, but actually, its in the East currently.



Invest Area 1 will dissapate as it moves over South America. There is no chance in my opinion, of this system becoming a storm, ignore it.
Invest Area 2 is moving NorthWest and conditions for development are starting to come in to place. The SSTs are good, and the system is headed into the bulk of them. Apperently however, the system is still getting moisture and needs time to grow. If the moisture was there I completly guarantee that the system would be Code Orange or Code Red.
As for Invest Area 3, this system is moving West right into the SSTs. I see moderate wind shear in the area, making development hard for this system. However, this could change. This system is still developing and is still disorganized, but as the wind shear dies down, we could see explosive growth in the storm. This is a potent storm already, and soon, maybe in 6 hours or so, may be a Code Orange.
As for TD2, this system is organized and is powerful enough, but is forecasted to move NorthWest over 5 days as a Tropical Storm starting in 6 hours. This is a potential threat to Bermuda, it presents no current threat to the U.S., and won't in the future.But in 6 hours we WILL be seeing Tropical Storm Ana, I Guarantee it.
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3177. centex
Quoting centex:
Does this look like slow development?

Link
No since nobody interested. My bad thought on ATL tropical blog.
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Like I said, Pacifice looks bad for Tropical Developement. The atlantic discussion is next and I will discuss the upcoming condition.
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Quoting serialteg:
There is a low chance for "Bill", AOI #3?

:/

Weren't all the models pumping it to Cat5? lol

I'm proud of my little Ana! Keep chuggin' along, bring me some waves honey...


I can't help it, I am not doing this to insult anyone or to get a reaction but

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
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Quoting reedzone:


Low chance for tropical development in the next 48 hours. They said slow development in a few days


yeayeayeayeayea ;)

well i'm all giddy... dreams of surf cloud my vision
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
3173. centex
Does this look like slow development?

Link
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It was Enriques fault for getting in Felicia's used up SSTs!!!
Quoting Drakoen:


LOL! Is that innuendo? Those last few words are quite dirty...
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Quoting serialteg:
There is a low chance for "Bill", AOI #3?

:/

Weren't all the models pumping it to Cat5? lol

I'm proud of my little Ana! Keep chuggin' along, bring me some waves honey...


Low chance for tropical development in the next 48 hours. They said slow development in a few days
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I cant resist I might have been right for once on strength and center. Last time goodnight.
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There is a low chance for "Bill", AOI #3?

:/

Weren't all the models pumping it to Cat5? lol

I'm proud of my little Ana! Keep chuggin' along, bring me some waves honey...
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
Tropical Depression two

SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 1002 hPa MSW = 46 kt
ADT: 995 hPa 53 kt Scene: SHEAR
CIMSS AMSU: 1003 hPa 44 kt Bias Corr: 0 (TPC)
CIRA AMSU: NA hPa NA kt Tmax: NA
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3167. centex
Quoting 7544:


dont know how often this updates but here anyway

Lat : 14:48:00 N Lon : 31:51:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt
Well, NHC says - ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT. That is info from 10 minutes ago, LOL.
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Dont look at Felicia's GFDL model run..... its outdated.

Here is my opinion for the systems in the Eastern Pacific:



Tropical Deppresion Nine has been having some trouble with developing it seems. They say that the storm has a chance of becoming a Tropical Storm. It may have something to do with the same wind shear that Felicia is dealing with, it definitly has nothing to do with SST, as it is fine and even SUPPORTS hurricane development, I personaly think its lack-of-moisture, this system almost has no clouds! As for Invest area 1, well, this system has more of a chance of developing more than TD9 does!!! Take a look for yourseld. SSTs, Windshear, and moisture apperently are growing this storm, but what I think is that the storm, heading to the North West at 10-15mph., will encounter WInd Shear, and bad SSTs as it goes on. This storm, if generated will be short unless 1 The wind shear subsides 2 the SSTs get better and 3 the system assumes a West movment. THAT will make the system a potent one. UPdates on Atlantic coming up next.
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3163. JRRP
have a nice day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Wow I don't know why we still have two yellow circles near the Antilles when they look like just little clusters of cloud associated with TD2, or should we wait till DMAX?
I guess one of them will be the disturbance CMC is hinting to develop and hit LA/TX based on its latest run.
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3161. Drakoen
Quoting KoritheMan:


Am I seeing Drak of all people get confused? :)


rare event indeed lol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
3160. 7544
Quoting Drakoen:
nvm now i'm having difficulty finding the center


dont know how often this updates but here anyway

Lat : 14:48:00 N Lon : 31:51:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
Quoting Drakoen:
nvm now i'm having difficulty finding the center


Am I seeing Drak of all people get confused? :)
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3158. centex
Quoting Drakoen:
nvm now i'm having difficulty finding the center
maybe under the convection and can't see at night.
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3157. Drakoen
nvm now i'm having difficulty finding the center
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
3156. 7544
Quoting Drakoen:


That was 2 hours ago


ok thanks
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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