TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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3256. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED DURING
THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
THE PUNTA SALINAS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BE AFFECTED BY AN ELONGATED
WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE WAVE IS POISED TO MOVE
ACROSS USVI AND PR LATER TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL BECOME LOCALLY
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DUE TO SEA
BREEZE EFFECTS. THIS FIRST PERIOD OF WEATHER IS TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF MOISTURE TRAVELING AHEAD OF NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED NEAR 55 WEST. THIS SECOND WAVE IS EXPECTED TO START
IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND EXIT WEST PUERTO RICO
FRIDAY MORNING. MAIN IMPACTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS. WAVE SHOULD INTERACT WITH FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS INDUCED BY UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST OVER HISPANIOLA. DRIER AIR IS TO SLIDE BEHIND THE WAVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ON SATURDAY THE NORMAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FOLLOWS NEXT AND WE SHOULD MONITOR ITS
PROGRESS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM TPC/NHC ON THIS
SYSTEM.

ANOTHER LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS TRACKING BEHIND TROPICAL DEP 2 AND WE
SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS SINCE GFS IS INDICATING POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE CHANCE THAT IT MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. KEPT MAX SURFACE
WINDS AT 25 KNOTS FOR GRIDS FOR DAY 7 AND 8 PERIOD. A REMINDER...IT
IS AUGUST AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY A TIME WHEN THE TROPICS BECOME MORE
ACTIVE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS...MARINERS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO
MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY...AS WE APPROACH THE MORE ACTIVE PART OF
THE HURRICANE SEASON.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting serialteg:


my personal take ... been tracking systems since 12 yrs old im 27 now... puerto rican born an bred. seen my share of canes

in my experience long range models epic fail so much that i really dont pay that much attention to them, other than to amuse / give me a general sense of what the mets are pointing out. the neighbours and fatalists especially love them, like my father :) but usually, canes just do what they have to or want. noaa pushes storms up north in the forecasts in a slightly parabolic, always predictable fashion. weather in general has a tendency for unpredictability, mostly these beasts. i just hope for the best and love the adrenaline rush i get from tracking, experiencing, informing others, and surfing canes!



epic fail...really?...you are 27 years old and epic fail is your vernacular of choice?

noaa pushes storms up north in the forecasts in a slightly parabolic, always predictable fashion. Are you implying forecast tracks are less than fully honest?
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3253. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Okay.....I'll just talk about what the 6Z GFS shows....stay tuned!~

Go right ahead, Ike! I'm leaving for work- no net access- so the only rush I get this morning is strong coffee!

Ya'll have fun scaring the livin' daylights outta each other!

Have a great wednesday.


Have a nice day.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3251. aquak9
Okay.....I'll just talk about what the 6Z GFS shows....stay tuned!~

Go right ahead, Ike! I'm leaving for work- no net access- so the only rush I get this morning is strong coffee!

Ya'll have fun scaring the livin' daylights outta each other!

Have a great wednesday.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Click on image to view original size in a new window





howd you get to that particular image from the quickscat site?
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3249. IKE
I wonder how many times the following statement has been posted on here this year....

"I think that will be Ana."

I know I personally have seen that on here at least 200+ times.

Quoting aquak9:
g'morning ike. No shock graphs this morning, thank you for that.


Okay.....I'll just talk about what the 6Z GFS shows....stay tuned!~
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Click on image to view original size in a new window



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Quoting CycloneOz:


I think it looks like a sea urchin.


shear appears to be some north and south shear on it, 10knot

beauty of nature, aint it grand
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3246. aquak9
g'morning ike. No shock graphs this morning, thank you for that.
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3245. IKE
Maybe it needs a haircut or a working razor.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:



NO...no...no....shouldn't talk about computer models....system hasn't even formed yet....j/k

See....even mets look at extended models.


my personal take ... been tracking systems since 12 yrs old im 27 now... puerto rican born an bred. seen my share of canes

in my experience long range models epic fail so much that i really dont pay that much attention to them, other than to amuse / give me a general sense of what the mets are pointing out. the neighbours and fatalists especially love them, like my father :) but usually, canes just do what they have to or want. noaa pushes storms up north in the forecasts in a slightly parabolic, always predictable fashion. weather in general has a tendency for unpredictability, mostly these beasts. i just hope for the best and love the adrenaline rush i get from tracking, experiencing, informing others, and surfing canes!
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Quoting Cotillion:
TD2 looks.... oddly furry. At the edges. Like something you find underneath the sofa.



I think it looks like a sea urchin.
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TD2 looks.... oddly furry. At the edges. Like something you find underneath the sofa.

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Quoting tornadofan:
Daylight shining on TD 2 now. Hmmm is LLC under CDO???



In motion


Wow...Wunderground has changed what happens when you hit a link.

Cool...
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Daylight shining on TD 2 now. Hmmm is LLC under CDO???



In motion
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Quoting ackee:
TD#2 seem like it has move slight WSW or SW


Difficult sentence to read.

"TD#2 seems like it has moved slightly WSW or SW."

Yeah, I spotted that some hours ago. Moved from 14.8 to 14.6

Discussion still says movement to the west, however.

I love it when they do that! :)


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Quoting bballerf50:


why do u want power?


surf, my friend

so that it clears the landmasses yet sends me surf. long-period, untarnished surf.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
At least four villages in southern Taiwan were devastated by mudslides and flooding after Morakot dumped more than two metres of rain on the island.

That is what the article says. Is that possible?


Yeah, widely reported up to 80 inches fell.
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3235. IKE
Quoting tornadofan:
Thought we needed some cut and pasting...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

LOOKING EVEN FURTHER OUT...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 00Z
GFS SHOWS WHAT IS CURRENTLY TD 2 APPROACHING SE FL IN A WEEK...WHILE
THE EURO RECURVES IT WELL TO THE E. OF BIGGER CONCERN IS HOW THESE
MODELS HANDLE THE STRONG WAVE CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM W AFRICA. BOTH
THE 00Z GFS AND EURO TAKE THIS SYSTEM ON A NEARLY IDENTICAL TRACK
ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FL
STRAITS IN ABOUT 10 DAYS. STAY TUNED



NO...no...no....shouldn't talk about computer models....system hasn't even formed yet....j/k

See....even mets look at extended models.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Thought we needed some cut and pasting...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

LOOKING EVEN FURTHER OUT...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 00Z
GFS SHOWS WHAT IS CURRENTLY TD 2 APPROACHING SE FL IN A WEEK...WHILE
THE EURO RECURVES IT WELL TO THE E. OF BIGGER CONCERN IS HOW THESE
MODELS HANDLE THE STRONG WAVE CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM W AFRICA. BOTH
THE 00Z GFS AND EURO TAKE THIS SYSTEM ON A NEARLY IDENTICAL TRACK
ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE OCEAN WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FL
STRAITS IN ABOUT 10 DAYS. STAY TUNED
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3233. ackee
TD#2 seem like it has move slight WSW or SW
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
At least four villages in southern Taiwan were devastated by mudslides and flooding after Morakot dumped more than two metres of rain on the island.

That is what the article says. Is that possible?


6 ft of rain...awesome Earth weather!
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3229. ackee
which one of convectoin commeing of the coast of africa is forecast to be bill ?
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Will probably become Ana at some point today.. only needs very minimal strengthening. Dry air keeps it in check.
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Quoting CycloneOz:



And how would you like that crow served? Sauteed perhaps? ;)
Since we're all perusing the 5am, go ahead and serve it sunny side up!

PS-They did, however, say, "THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INITIAL POSITION...AND
THE BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10."

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Quoting serialteg:
they're keeping it in the 50max knot range. no! gimme power! >:(


why do u want power?
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they're keeping it in the 50max knot range. no! gimme power! >:(
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It's August 12th and we still don't have one named storm. WOW!

I'm out.
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... aaaaaaaaand thats why im not a betting man.

just when you thought...

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Quoting CycloneOz:
Is TD2s movement WSW?

If so, shift south, shift west on the tracks!

And for goodness sake, stay out of the GoM!

Quoting Claudette1234:


Is moving WEST-WEST-WEST

not south or north only WEST


And how would you like that crow served? Sauteed perhaps? ;)
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...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST OR ABOUT 535
MILES...860 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

HaHa...I knew it. It has shifted south.
UPDATE THE TRACKING CHARTS!


THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 32.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

I cannot believe we are still at a 0,0,0 condition at this time! INCREDIBLE!
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Remains TD2.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Just hanging out, waiting for the 6AM

Refreshing screens, scratching at beard...


it's been like that for me for a day or two now, finally getting into the meaty part of it

5am ... depression status maintained or tropical storm ana named? lol i'm not a betting man...
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5 am is out
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TD2 still held on Dvorak at 2.0, not sure if we'll see an upgrade just yet... Even with the ADT jumping ahead saying it's around a 60-65mph storm.

(Famous last words. Did that last time, anyway.)
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I do not want to miss the passage of 0,0,0 into 1,0,0!
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Just hanging out, waiting for the 6AM

Refreshing screens, scratching at beard...
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The NHC or NWS? goes with GFS on the 53 wave. But also say they are stronger than the others?? That would be nice a weaker version than the GFS shows.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

THE
NORTHERN VORT CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND SENDING A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS VARY WITH THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS TROUGH...WITH THE GFS AMONG THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS. A TONED-DOWN VERSION OF ITS FORECAST IS PREFERRED.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml
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Quoting Vortex95:
Question: Why is the ADT showing such high numbers?


ADT is pretty okay for trends. Never seems to handle weak systems too well (overstates them), yet always lags behind in rapid intensification.
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Quoting ddbweatherking:
thank you so much for helping me i am going to try it right now. I was asking for a long time but the blog was too busy. But now once more quieter it's easier to get that kind of info.


Your welcome. hope it works. :)
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actually i think i'll wait until tomorrow to try it. Thanks any way homeless wanderer. I am starting to get tired anyway.
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Quoting ktymisty:


That could be it :) thank you


Your welcome. Gets my mind off this year. Lol.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Is this it?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxYfl-inCw8


That could be it :) thank you
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


What I had to do was save the pic and upload it to Photobucket.com Its easy to do that. They'll explain. Then when youve uploaded it click the image to make it big and just to the left it has SHARE THIS IMAGE then click on the html code and that copies it. Then here click image then paste the html code. Sounds more complicated than it is. hope that helps. :)
thank you so much for helping me i am going to try it right now. I was asking for a long time but the blog was too busy. But now once more quieter it's easier to get that kind of info.
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Quoting ktymisty:


no, that wasn't it but thank you for looking for me :), the one I mean shows inside the cabin as well as outside and everything going dark and upside down


Is this it?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxYfl-inCw8
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Quoting ddbweatherking:
Can someone please tell me how to post pictures as images and not as links. I am getting desperate.


What I had to do was save the pic and upload it to Photobucket.com Its easy to do that. They'll explain. Then when youve uploaded it click the image to make it big and just to the left it has SHARE THIS IMAGE then click on the html code and that copies it. Then here click image then paste the html code. Sounds more complicated than it is. hope that helps. :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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