Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2009

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A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.

Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.


Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.

Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

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Sorry for two posts. Blog would not allow image to be linked. Doesn't like (plus) sign in img html tag. Image is below.
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Quoting leftovers:
not hearing anything about el nino?


This El Nino is going to be weak at best.
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2886. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Gawd the numbering system is so messed up in the NRL archives

01C.NONAME
02C.NONAME - say what now? looks puzzled and confused
08C.FELICIA

>.<
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2884. Boca
Never anyone in the chat rooms. Seems like a wast of space. Following the postings without a tree is pretty much yesterdays web style.

Sorry for the gripe but need to state my view since I am a paid member. :)
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
That is crazy that raw T numbers is nearly 4.0 for forecasted "Maka"


Maka seems rather similar to Ioke, particularly in regards to track.
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2881. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
That is crazy that raw T numbers is nearly 4.0 for forecasted "Maka"
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Happy bday WS,

I remembered you said 11 August, correct?
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Quoting Weather456:
Becuz the models did well in predicting TD 2, model support continues to prove accurate in 2009.

That is why the agressive system the models are developing will likely be TD 3 or TD 4.

The reason why I say TD 4 is becuz of the mid-Atlantic mid-low level swirl that could poetentially develop.


The one near 50W seems to have a dangerous future.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
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Quoting prairiewxwatcher:
first post ever here for me :)

morning every1 (even though I have not slept yet, haha) ...but I digress.

With TD2 being called and it's forecast strengthening into Ana sometime over the next few days, it looks like our so far 0,0,0 season will be no more.

TD02 looks to be the beginning of an active Atlantic period it seems (based on the models, of course), so it looks like the '09 season has finally begun! :)



Does the "prairie" in your name indicate that you live in Prairieville, LA? That's where I am. >_>
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Quoting SavannahStorm:
Good morning, and hello TD2. Better have enough juice to be named Ana or WU bloggers will have their own version of "tropical depression."


LMFAO!
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


me neitehr, morning, today's my b-day by the way
Happy Birthday WS. Have a great day.
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first post ever here for me :)

morning every1 (even though I have not slept yet, haha) ...but I digress.

With TD2 being called and it's forecast strengthening into Ana sometime over the next few days, it looks like our so far 0,0,0 season will be no more.

TD02 looks to be the beginning of an active Atlantic period it seems (based on the models, of course), so it looks like the '09 season has finally begun! :)

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Quoting HurricaneJoe:


Yeah, for those of us on the Gulf Coast


A more westward track is worse not only for the Gulf Coast, but for the Caribbean as well. Also, historically, the strongest tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin occur in the western or northwestern Caribbean Sea, where oceanic heat content is very high.

But this is all speculation at this point. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Models have been forecasting a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north over the next 5-7 days. If the system is vertically coherent by that time, it may feel it enough to recurve.

If it remains weak, it will be steered westward with the low-level flow and then there could be trouble.


Yeah, for those of us on the Gulf Coast
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Becuz the models did well in predicting TD 2, model support continues to prove accurate in 2009.

That is why the agressive system the models are developing will likely be TD 3 or TD 4.

The reason why I say TD 4 is becuz of the mid-Atlantic mid-low level swirl that could poetentially develop.
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Good morning, and hello TD2. Better have enough juice to be named Ana or WU bloggers will have their own version of "tropical depression."
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Quoting HurricaneJoe:


So that's a real possibility?


Models have been forecasting a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north over the next 5-7 days. If the system is vertically coherent by that time, it may feel it enough to recurve.

If it remains weak, it will be steered westward with the low-level flow and then there could be trouble.
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2867. Brallan
Quoting MahFL:
TD2, ....now the Blog will explode and all kinds of doomsday senarios will be forcast by our excited bloggers.......


Yeah... I hope Dr. Masters posts a new blog soon. A Category 5 blogcane will make landfall here soon ...
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Quoting MahFL:
TD2, ....now the Blog will explode and all kinds of doomsday senarios will be forcast by our excited bloggers.......


All I wish for is for no viruses.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting KoritheMan:


Better hope it quickly intensifies and pulls more poleward. I'm not at all liking that bolded excerpt above that I posted from the latest NHC discussion.


So that's a real possibility?
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


me neitehr, morning, today's my b-day by the way


I see. Happy birthday. Looks like you got a tropical surprise to go along with it. >_>
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
good morning all, the tropics have exploded i see


WOW WS, never thought you could wake up so early. I've been lurking for about an 1hr. We have tropical depression 2, and we will have 3 shortly thereafter.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting MahFL:
TD2, ....now the Blog will explode and all kinds of doomsday senarios will be forcast by our excited bloggers.......
Yea the hurricane center brings out it's dusty crayons and the blog turns red!
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I'm still more concerned about the wave behind TD2. Lower latitude, less of a chance of recurvature, and persistent model support.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
good morning all, the tropics have exploded i see


Yeah morning WeatherStudent,

So much work to do for NHC!
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2858. MahFL
See what I mean....Weatherstudent " the tropics have exploded", its a TD, a TD...not a Cat3...sheesh.
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Quoting HurricaneJoe:
Good morning everyone

Woo hoo, we finally got one!!


Better hope it quickly intensifies and pulls more poleward. I'm not at all liking that bolded excerpt above that I posted from the latest NHC discussion.
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2856. MahFL
TD2, ....now the Blog will explode and all kinds of doomsday senarios will be forcast by our excited bloggers.......
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Good morning everyone

Woo hoo, we finally got one!!
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 13:49:05 N Lon : 171:16:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 2.9 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -42.0C Cloud Region Temp : -53.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

next report TS MAKA

Some models gives CAT3 for this TS!
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 111010
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
TRACKING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RATHER
WEAK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE TOOLS. AS USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF THE
CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED BELOW IT WILL PROBABLY
ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AND NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS FORECAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED
HERE.


INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 270/11. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO MORE OR
LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE FLOW SOUTH OF A
FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE BAM TRACKS. THIS IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE LATEST HWRF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1000Z 14.4N 28.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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2851. Brallan
NHC is issuing adviosies abou TD2 now.
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 111010
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN
TRACKING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RATHER
WEAK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGHENING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE TOOLS. AS USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF THE
CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED BELOW IT WILL PROBABLY
ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AND NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS FORECAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED
HERE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 270/11. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO MORE OR
LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE FLOW SOUTH OF A
FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE BAM TRACKS. THIS IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE LATEST HWRF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1000Z 14.4N 28.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Slowish strengthening. Pretty expected line. Also, as someone pointed out earlier, NHC going a little slower in its progression across the Atlantic than the models indicate.
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2849. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTCA41 TJSJ 111003 ***
TCPSP1

BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL012009
500 PM AST VIERNES 29 MAYO DE 2009

...LA DEPRESION PIERDE CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES...

---
unisys is spamming the wrong system
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Good Morning all

Another comback story



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Not liking where TD2 originated at all...
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2846. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
well there you go TS in 24 hours
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MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

That is one of the main reasons it was classifed along with the 2.0 reading from Dvorak
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1342
000
WTNT32 KNHC 111000
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER
THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...455 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 28.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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WTNT22 KNHC 110959
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1000 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 28.6W AT 11/1000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 28.6W AT 11/1000Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 27.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.6N 30.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 32.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 34.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.2N 36.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.0N 41.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 17.5N 45.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 28.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Wow, I thought they would wait until the afternoon to see if the convection held together. I am not convinced it won't fizzle again today like it did yesterday. But I guess the NHC is convinced and that is all that matters.
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2841. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TROPICAL STORM ETAU (T0909)
18:00 PM JST August 11 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Etau (994 hPa) located at 33.4N 141.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving east at 17 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in south quadrant
70 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 33.2N 149.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 36.3N 153.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 40.0N 158.8E - EXTRATROPICAL LOW

---
Etau in sea east of Japan is downgraded to a "tropical storm"
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Getting quite interesting out there, TD2 sure looks good this morning.....

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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
yes ship based TC Guidance intensities


The 12Z run should give a better idea, since it will use the official NHC track. Currently it uses BAMM which recurves rather quickly. However the NHC may show a similar track, have to wait and see.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.