Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2009

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A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.

Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.


Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.

Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

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2939. fmbill
Quoting leftovers:
it all depends how much impact the greater antillies has on it


I know. I hate it, but Hispaniola has saved florida many times, but at a great expense :-(
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10: someone tell me why no Atlantic Floater on tropical depression 2...

A watched pot never boils.
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2935. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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ECMWF just as agressive as the GFS




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2933. fmbill
Quoting leftovers:
sounds like a bigger storm than charlie donna type?


Ugh!!! that would not be good.
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Quoting IKE:


I see that heading for the northern islands right now.

It may get an invest status soon.


If you follow the 850mb Vort you can see it reappear up the east coast. Modified my comment about where, not SC/NC but GA/SC, at least on the 06Z run.
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2929. fmbill
Well...got to head to work. I have to update the City directors.

I'll be lurking today. Everyone play nice! :-)
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Quoting fmbill:


I think Ike's comparison to Charley is a pretty good example, too.

No like-ey!


Aye, just I say David because it starts out by the central Atl rather than the Carib.

Crack out those Johnny Herbert boxes.

David.. Hugo.. Georges. All somewhat similar tracks up until around Hispaniola. Then it depends on the steering. But frighteningly similar.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
someone tell me why no Atlantic Floater on tropical depression 2 from the national hurricane center.


PLEASE NOTE: These images are not from the NHC website.

The images are fron GOES.
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morning

All i can say at this moment is 'TROPICAL TROUBLES' will make an analysis later this morning
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2925. fmbill
Quoting Cotillion:


Almost looks a bit like a David run. Especially if it moves east a touch coming to FL.


I think Ike's comparison to Charley is a pretty good example, too.

No like-ey!
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2923. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I'm wondering if the area near 14N 51W may gets tagged first, GFS wants to have it visit Presslord and SJ.


I see that heading for the northern islands right now.

It may get an invest status soon.
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Yes FMBILL that is what you are seeing.
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Quoting fmbill:


Yikes...the rest of the model run is in. "Bill" looks to cross Florda from the southwest to northeast!!!


Almost looks a bit like a David run. Especially if it moves east a touch coming to FL.
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Hopefully TD2 wont fizzle by tonight. Going get ready for school, see yall later
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Quoting Weather456:


That is what the GFS and others are developing.


Thanks 456,

Too much activity in all tropical.
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This is geroges all over again

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2917. fmbill
Quoting fmbill:
GFS


Yikes...the rest of the model run is in. "Bill" looks to cross Florda from the southwest to northeast!!!
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Quoting Claudette1234:
the wave AT 16W 1010mb

soon we see another yellow circle.


That is what the GFS and others are developing.
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2915. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning all.

Ike I see you are posting pics of destroying the southeast again. Chevycanes is at it, too.

Shame on ya'll..givin' this old woman heart failure on a Tuesday. Save it for Mondays.


LOL....sorry....GFS has the ECMWF in it's corner. Almost a sure bet to be a cane...maybe major #1.

Looks like the northern islands are it's first threat.

6Z GFS has it doing a Charlie type track. It's so far in advance...just a crap shoot at this point.
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Quoting IKE:


Looks like future TD3 may be a huge problem for you and neighboring islands.


I'm wondering if the area near 14N 51W may get tagged first.
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2913. fmbill
GFS
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the wave AT 16W 1010mb

soon we see another yellow circle.
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2911. IKE
Quoting HurricaneJoe:
Ike, is there a site that you can get the latest GFS runs? I have the one you posted, but it doesn't refresh with new model runs when they come out.


Link
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2910. fmbill
Quoting fmbill:



Good morning, all. I'm curious...per the 00z GFS, it appears the wave at 50w will come to the Florida east coast; followed by Ana crossing the southern tip of Florida; followed by "Bill" brushing the Florida east coast.

Anyone else seeing this?


Oops...i meant the 06z GFS
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Quoting IKE:


Looks like future TD3 may be a huge problem for you and neighboring islands.


We were watching the models all day yesterday, and some suggest this is our next Georges and Hugo, which ironically reoccurs every 9-11 years. I'm actually in denial considering we cannot take on a hurricane this critical time in our economy.
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2908. aquak9
g'morning all.

Ike I see you are posting pics of destroying the southeast again. Chevycanes is at it, too.

Shame on ya'll..givin' this old woman heart failure on a Tuesday. Save it for Mondays.
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Ike, is there a site that you can get the latest GFS runs? I have the one you posted, but it doesn't refresh with new model runs when they come out.
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2905. fmbill
Quoting futuremet:


The one near 50W seems to have a dangerous future.



Good morning, all. I'm curious...per the 00z GFS, it appears the wave at 50w will come to the Florida east coast; followed by Ana crossing the southern tip of Florida; followed by "Bill" brushing the Florida east coast.

Anyone else seeing this?
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(2877) Beautiful sat pic, Savannah! What site is that from?
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2902. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Depression 2 arrives; TD 3 soon to follow


Looks like future TD3 may be a huge problem for you and neighboring islands.
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2901. IKE
Quoting HurricaneJoe:


Ike, can you post a link to the site you got that from?


This one looks like big trouble for a lot of folks.......

Maybe a 10-15 day event.
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GFS at 276 hrs.
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.
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I can't argue with the NHC track right now. That track is what most of the more reliable models have been showing the past several days. Even the good ol' Canadian Model has shifted the track to the north of the Antilles.
BTW...Convection firing off the coast of Africa where the Tropical Wave of Doom is forecast to organize.
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Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS at 288 hours....



Ike, can you post a link to the site you got that from?
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Gawd the numbering system is so messed up in the NRL archives

01C.NONAME
02C.NONAME - say what now? looks puzzled and confused
08C.FELICIA

>.<


Blame CPHC, when they created what is now 01C they first did it as 02C and had to renumber.

08/11/2009 01:00AM 1,458 invest_RENUMBER_cp022009_cp012009.ren
08/11/2009 12:44AM 1,293 invest_RENUMBER_cp922009_cp022009.ren
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Lots of dry air to the north of 2.
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2894. fire635
I wish we had internet at the Fire Sta. Im not going to be able to take part in what is likely to be the busiest blog of the season so far. :-(
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2893. IKE
6Z GFS at 288 hours....

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

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2890. fire635
Quoting MahFL:
TD2, ....now the Blog will explode and all kinds of doomsday senarios will be forcast by our excited bloggers.......


LOL... thats a certainty. Good morning all. Just stopping in before I head to the Fire Station
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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

Link

Sorry for two posts. Blog would not allow image to be linked. Doesn't like (plus) sign in img html tag. Image is below.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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