Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2009

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A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.

Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.


Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.

Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

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Quoting Drakoen:


No. Development into a tropical storm.


Your right.. TS
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Quoting canesrule1:
the TWO will be out in about 30 minutes.
LETS DO A POLL!!!!

WHAT IS YOUR PREDICTION FOR THE 2 O'CLOCK TWO?

A.YELLOW

B.ORANGE

C.RED

D.TD

E.NOTHING


B
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting Acemmett90:

stays the same and yellow for rthe barbados blob


Orange still
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Quoting PORTCHARLOTTE72:
there will be no tropical develepment this period go find something else to do 0-0-0
Ignore #8
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285. eddye
okay cchsweatherman what you think 0f 99l
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Quoting zoomiami:
A majority of the damage done from Katrina was from the storm surge. South Florida sits on coral rock which is porous, allowing water to sink at a faster level.

A cat 5 hitting Dade county would cause serious damage, but I don't think we would see the type of damage that LA, MS, and Al got.

You also have to remember that many, many homes now have shutters, that a lot of homes rebuilt after Andrew were raised.


Miami luckily has some of the best building codes in the country because of Andrew. You won't see the damage in Miami on the coastline from storm surge like MS or AL, because of the geography of the coastline. However, a category five winds would cause far more damage inland. If Andrew hit only 10 miles to the north, it would've been the example of a metropolitan area demolished by mother nature, ala how Katrina is NOLA today.
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Quoting zoomiami:
A majority of the damage done from Katrina was from the storm surge. South Florida sits on coral rock which is porous, allowing water to sink at a faster level.

A cat 5 hitting Dade county would cause serious damage, but I don't think we would see the type of damage that LA, MS, and Al got.

You also have to remember that many, many homes now have shutters, that a lot of homes rebuilt after Andrew were raised.


Miami luckily has some of the best building codes in the country because of Andrew. You won't see the damage in Miami on the coastline from storm surge like MS or AL, because of the geography of the coastline. However, a category five winds would cause far more damage inland. If Andrew hit only 10 miles to the north, it would've been the example of a metropolitan area demolished by mother nature, ala how Katrina is NOLA today.
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Quoting canesrule1:
the TWO will be out in about 30 minutes.
LETS DO A POLL!!!!

WHAT IS YOUR PREDICTION FOR THE 2 O'CLOCK TWO?

A.YELLOW

B.ORANGE

C.RED

D.TD

E.NOTHING

B
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3047
Heh heh, like the Bachman Turner Overdrive song, "Ain't Seen Nothing Yet".
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there will be no tropical develepment this period go find something else to do 0-0-0
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the TWO will be out in about 30 minutes.
LETS DO A POLL!!!!

WHAT IS YOUR PREDICTION FOR THE 2 O'CLOCK TWO?

A.YELLOW

B.ORANGE

C.RED

D.TD

E.NOTHING
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting eddye:
cchsweatherman facebook know i need to talk to you


Not going to be able to. Right now, I'm taking a break from helping prepare a classroom and the school's Firewall prevents me from accessing Facebook. By the way, don't order me to do anything and if you have any questions, why not ask them here?
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Feel free to check out my blog. Just modified it.

Tropical Update -- 8/10/09 -- 1:00pm
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Quoting Drakoen:


No. Development into a tropical storm.




NHC has it topping out at 43, now I have to go and check the numbers.. what number does TS winds start
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99L has got to be Ana. I mean it's already August, there's got to be brewing troubles related to 99L. It might head for South Florida.
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Cool ill just show up with my idoit helmet and hurricane beer holder, maybe an idoit weather jacket too.lol
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my mother lives in the senior housing building on N Olive!
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Well if the EURO shows it, it's worth watching.. GFS has a NYC hurricane again. The GFS develops that wave that JUST came off the coastline this morning, that's the one that becomes either Ana or Bill, depends on what 99L does.
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99L is still the one to watch. The track of the unclassified wave will depend on how far west 99L gets. If it lifts out north early, then the ridge builds back in sooner and wave 2 goes into the hot tub of the Gulf and may G-D have mercy on whatever spot it hits. The farther west 99L tracks, the likelier it is that the unnamed wave will avoid getting caught in the Gulf. I'm not wishing it to scrape up the east coast, but the Gulf is the worst case scenario. You would be looking at a potential Cat 5 landfall unless the shear there blows up.
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"not very reliable" is actually being kind to the models this far out. "completely devoid of forecasting skill" would be more accurate. the models need good initial data to even come close to being accurate. they obviously don't have good initial data for a TC that hasn't even formed yet.
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I just noticed that when the 12z GFS has hitting "Bill" near MD on the 24th. The 24th is also when I start school again!

Bwahahaha!

Senior! Wo0t!

*sorry had to get that out*
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Quoting Drakoen:


That is because of an upper level low. Regardless of whether or not they kill it, they are showing development.
true, and about 99% of them are making 99L a TS, so lets wait and see.
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


LOL, this is the first Google Images hit for Joe Bastardi. That says a lot...


LMAO!
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I think 99L will eventually become Ana, probably within 24 hours, there maybe 2-3 areas to compete for the "Bill" name imo.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Minimal development.. and barely making TD numbers... correct?


No. Development into a tropical storm.
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Quoting canesrule1:
yes but also a good couple of models kill it before the Antilles.


That is because of an upper level low. Regardless of whether or not they kill it, they are showing development.
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255. IKE
12Z NOGAPS.......shows the wave near 45W ending near the Yucatan on the 12Z 192 hour run.

Looks like it has 99L going WNW....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Drakoen:


No. ModelS still show development of 99L. The GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, CMC


Minimal development.. and barely making TD numbers... correct?
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253. eddye
cchsweatherman facebook know i need to talk to you
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LOL, this is the first Google Images hit for Joe Bastardi. That says a lot...
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Quoting zoomiami:
A majority of the damage done from Katrina was from the storm surge. South Florida sits on coral rock which is porous, allowing water to sink at a faster level.

A cat 5 hitting Dade county would cause serious damage, but I don't think we would see the type of damage that LA, MS, and Al got.

You also have to remember that many, many homes now have shutters, that a lot of homes rebuilt after Andrew were raised.


Very true

However, many many more new condo's and hi-rise buildings since '92 along the Dade / Broward coastline and many folks here have not gone through a major hurriance... Alot of people think Wilma was bad... They ain't seen nothing yet
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


And then NYC...

I bet Bastardi will have a field day with this one...


Right smack into Baltimore I-95 coridor.
Wonderful
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Quoting zoomiami:
I'm going to be a pest until someone answers this.

216 hours outs - models are not very reliable (keep repeating to self)

I have seen several comments regarding the virus that people have gotten. Was it from a link posted here? If so, PLEASE share so others of us can avoid it.
Thanks

Yes unreliable

If you have your computer properly protected... and check to see where the link is actually trying to take you.. your safe
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Quoting Drakoen:


No. ModelS still show development of 99L. The GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, CMC
yes but also a good couple of models kill it before the Antilles.
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NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.5N 31.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.08.2009 13.5N 31.5W WEAK
12UTC 12.08.2009 13.2N 33.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2009 13.3N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2009 13.2N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2009 13.7N 37.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2009 14.3N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2009 16.4N 42.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.08.2009 17.8N 46.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.08.2009 17.9N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
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Quoting cg2916:

You're right.


Eh I still think this can become Ana.
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The 12Z GFS show's Joe Bastardi's dream storm...
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Correct me if I am wrong.. most models and forecasts are predicting 99L to fizzle out in a few days... and the models are predicting the next wave off of Africa will probably be Ana.

yeah, most very good models are killing 99L and forecasting "90L" to become ana.
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Thanks for the new blog update Dr. Masters. Been reading back through all the comments this morning and don't understand the irrational anxiety in regards to the latest GFS computer model outputs. There is no reason to be excited or concerned at this point since the system that would give birth to the storm depicted by the GFS remains over Africa. Nothing the computer models show is guaranteed to happen and will change several times in the course of just a few days. Sure, it does seems worrisome to see what the GFS suggests may happen, but don't lead yourself to believe it and start getting panicked. Just be calm and objective and understand that we still have well over a week to monitor the situation before any concern would be warranted.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Correct me if I am wrong.. most models and forecasts are predicting 99L to fizzle out in a few days... and the models are predicting the next wave off of Africa will probably be Ana.



No. ModelS still show development of 99L. The GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, CMC
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Quoting zoomiami:
I'm going to be a pest until someone answers this.

216 hours outs - models are not very reliable (keep repeating to self)

I have seen several comments regarding the virus that people have gotten. Was it from a link posted here? If so, PLEASE share so others of us can avoid it.
Thanks


Yes, I want to know the answer to this too.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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