Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.

Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.


Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.

Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1839 - 1789

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Is funny, but now that I think about it, whenever I would pull up a page over the weekend I would get that security notice that XP puts up about not allowing, etc. I just thought that someone had posted a link that requires a certificate that I didn't have.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
when i clicked on storms blog update todat it made me have to restart... hmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1837. breald
I've opened a few links today. How do you know if your computer is infected?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I ran an AVG scan and it came up clean... thankfully
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im at 70% with 0 threats... It still makes me mad that someone would deliberately do something like this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When I try to get on this page a thing pops up something about run time error and it closes IE but is fine after the bad is off the page or if I can find it and hide it. Dont know if its a virus??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I had 22 threats
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
1832. java162
Quoting SevereHurricane:
I clicked the link and my laptop wall paper turned from a wall cloud to solid red, I believe it was a Trojan and it disabled my Norton 360 then my laptop crashed completely. I have Vista and I could not even get to the log in screen when I tried restarting. I got a New Laptop this morning, Thank God I had a 1 Year warranty on it so I didn't need to pay for anything, either way I am very upset over it and I am just curious on who posted the link.



i would suggest that you do not open any links.... now can we get back to discussing the tropics without any links attached?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1831. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
iam doing complete shutdown and running deep system scan as well i will let ya know if anything shows up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thunder sound .. no but on my desktop I did before it crashed. voices too like advertising. Sorry but probably a virus u need to scan =/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
who or what was the link from you remember


I was so mad I forgot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I did a quick scan with TrendMicro and found only one cookie. Will try a full scan but that takes a while. Have had no notices but I seldom follow links. I'll log out and maybe be back later if things appear to settle down.

Thanks for the weather info to all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Scan 67% done with 3 threats.

I suggest everyone runs their virus protection programs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1825. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting SevereHurricane:
I clicked the link and my laptop wall paper turned from a wall cloud to solid red, I believe it was a Trojan and it disabled my Norton 360 then my laptop crashed completely. I have Vista and I could not even get to the log in screen when I tried restarting. I got a New Laptop this morning, Thank God I had a 1 Year warranty on it so I didn't need to pay for anything, either way I am very upset over it and I am just curious on who posted the link.
who or what was the link from you remember
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This better not happen when a storm approaches!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Mine took over my background saying you ahve been infected by spyware run your antivirus software, then I couldnt open any execuable files.


Hey, I got something like that a few days ago, it asked me to update virus software or something but because I am a bit errant and usually rely on the auto update I did not.

Good thing. See sometimes pays to ignore. Ha.

But the virus software on my computer is auto updated each time I open.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hope someone didn't get bitter and start this to be an a**. There were several imposters today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1820. Patrap
Quoting zoomiami:
If you don't click on a link, you won't get the virus. You have to open a file or link for it to start.

I don't generally open links either, hate viruses.



Not necessarily,if the virus is embedded in a AD Banner,..simply pulling up the page will infect a PC.
As stated below..its a nasty thing.My IT guy cant recover my PC,..although its old,.it had state of the art Firewalls and a DoD encrypted Wormdrive filter as well
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
1819. IKE
Quoting hunkerdown:
I am re-asking since it was at the end of the previous page, does anybody here a thunder sound when posting or refreshing on this blog ? It does not do it every time but about 50% of the time...


Nope. Nothing on mine.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I've gotten trojans before. Ran AVG and it got rid of them.

Knock on wood...I've had no viruses in 2-3 years.

I ran Avast and came up clean. About to do another scan. Good thing my firewall is up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I clicked the link and my laptop wall paper turned from a wall cloud to solid red, I believe it was a Trojan and it disabled my Norton 360 then my laptop crashed completely. I have Vista and I could not even get to the log in screen when I tried restarting. I got a New Laptop this morning, Thank God I had a 1 Year warranty on it so I didn't need to pay for anything, either way I am very upset over it and I am just curious on who posted the link.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am re-asking since it was at the end of the previous page, does anybody here a thunder sound when posting or refreshing on this blog ? It does not do it every time but about 50% of the time...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
1815. IKE
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
can someone send me the latest sat for 99L please


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1814. hahaguy
Quoting zoomiami:
If you don't click on a link, you won't get the virus. You have to open a file or link for it to start.

I don't generally open links either, hate viruses.


I usually click on links but even if avast doesn't find any infections I won't click on anymore links unless I know where it's from.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1812. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Drakoen:


I am out too. I just came in here to say what happened. Can't afford to have my laptop crash.
sad man sad why do people do these type of things
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Bill wave is sliding off now.

Too bad the Western Africa floater is repositioned to 99L.



Well if 99L doesn't develop good chance that one does.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
If you don't click on a link, you won't get the virus. You have to open a file or link for it to start.

I don't generally open links either, hate viruses.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1808. Drakoen
Just to note my Virus Scan is 96% of the way done with 31 infections.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
can someone send me the latest link for sat for 99L please
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
1806. Patrap
Before Logging off I sent this to Dr. Masters,...



Jeff,..the site has been the scene of several successful Trojan Horse virus attacks that continue to Plague the Blogs.
Esp yours.
My Dell was ruined,the PC.. by Malware and 40 different infections that occurred Saturday and continued today.

If you could,..please post a word or two in your Blog if you Know of this,as many are pulling out due to the attacks.

Patrick



If you dont have a Good anti-virus,..I HIGHLY recommend logging off here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Bill wave is sliding off now.

Too bad the Western Africa floater is repositioned to 99L.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1804. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
ALERT
virus infector using bad links to spread virus DO NOT CLICK LINKS till you can confirm where its from where its going
myself i never click on links
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It sounds like the Winantivirus virus. It infects your PC, then claims to be an anti virus , that you are infected with a bunch of viruses, and you must pay the authors money in order to fix your PC. In reality, it actually is the infection. It typically auto installs via a malicious script usually delivered via an ad service. And, I have caught infected PCs doing far more than throwing up that popup. If this is so, I suggest anyone infected consider everything they do to be viewable and exploitable by someone else.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is anybody hearing a thunder sound when posting or refreshing on this site ? I believe thats what happened on Saturday before the attack.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
1798. Drakoen
This is pathetic. I am done answering questions. I am out. If you want your computer to crash then by all means stay here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1797. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


It popped up today. I thought I was in the clear and then that crap popped up and crashed my computer.


I've gotten trojans before. Ran AVG and it got rid of them.

Knock on wood...I've had no viruses in 2-3 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1796. hahaguy
Quoting alaina1085:
I use ESET antivirus and I love it. So far so good on the scan...


I use avast, so far so good also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
So those 10 McAfee warnings were legitimate.
I would say yes...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Haboob:

Not a nice thing. We have had it on two machines at work, had to reformat, and start over.

If anyone sees the popup that says something along the lines of Virus detected, click here to remove, DO NOT click here. If you do, it starts the virus running. It is virtually impossible to get it out of all the files. Everytime you reboot it moves into another file, and continuously recreates itself. All the techs that I've talked to say its almost impossible to clean it off a machine.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I use ESET antivirus and I love it. So far so good on the scan...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
can someone send me a updated sat of 99L
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
1790. IKE
I'm doing a system scan now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Well I took it in to get fixed and got it back and a whole 2 hours later I had the same problem so I had to take it back.
I had to blast the hard drive. As Drak said, couldn't even get any exe files to load.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515

Viewing: 1839 - 1789

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
30 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron