Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop
A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.
Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.
Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.
Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.
Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Reader Comments
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I do hope your right
I'm not sure at this point, but it looks so. I'm not too exited though, since 1), its still a bit far out and 2) likely affect someone.
don't get me wrong, I really like OS X and as far as a laptop goes I think the new macbooks are simply the best...right tool for the right job otherwise, macs make terrible gaming machines ;)
and btw, windows 7 is very nice so if you are stuck on windows at least you won't be stuck on that vista garbage soon
if you can afford the apple tax and you are not a gamer macs are my choice
I'm not being mean, I'm gonna teach ya something here. What does the word "fifth" mean in that statement??
Nobody else answer- I want to see if he knows what this statement really means.
Do you mean Eeee-bare Boxes?
Yeah, I noted that yesterday evening and don't like the looks of it. That same model hints at some potential tag alongs too. Just what we do not need is a funnel of storms running up the GOM or Florida....again.
Its been showing this for days now and so have the other models. Certainly tons of support for development.
Correct?
I seem to remember a cane last year or year before that did just that, defying the models and staying Westward. And that was after is was already developed, thus the models would have had a better handle on it.
Thanks for the help. Im not a gamer, I just use alot of graphics and softwares for school.
the models usually seem fairly decent on intensity
Not so much bajelay...Intensity is usually one of the hardest things to forecast....
Link
Or it's been hanging out with the CMC on Friday nights again.
And I'm not being mean...I think he might know the answer.
a-Yellow circle and orange turns to yellow
b-Yellow circle and orange circle remains
c-Yellow circle turns orange and orange remains
d-Yellow circle turns ornage and orange circle turns yellow
E-Other
Bill? i sure hope so bye bye Bill you won't be hurting anyone my friend i can have a shot to that pat
18Z GFS at 312 continues the trend as well offshore
I'm fairly well-versed in that area, WS...sounds like you are, too. Congrats. :)
So many young folks use common phrases these days, and have no idea the true meaning behind them.
Kids...you cain't learn 'em nuthin no more...
Later
Did you get a Thesaurus? You are really tossing out the adjectives and adverbs out there today.
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