Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2009

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A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.

Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.


Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.

Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

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Quoting BiloxiIsle:
Can you get a virus if we don't open links? I keep WU open all day at work (yes, I know, I should be working, but I have to keep up with the tropics). I can live with out opening links, but I am not sure I can survive without my tropical page!


Yes you can, it has happened to me the past few days, some fake virus scanner named Advanced Virus Remover downloaded itself on my laptop when I was on this site. I use the Malwarebytes as Thelmores said to get rid of the fake one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you read back a page you will see most of the conversation about who got the virus etc.

Some people just have nothing better to do with their time, they like seeing how much trouble they can make.

It may also have gotten here by accident from someone who was infected from a previous site.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can you get a virus if we don't open links? I keep WU open all day at work (yes, I know, I should be working, but I have to keep up with the tropics). I can live with out opening links, but I am not sure I can survive without my tropical page!
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Quoting WindynEYW:
<----- is on a mac no virus. sucks someone would intentionally place a malware virus link in here


That's what you'd like to think... macs are far from secure.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, I think I will call it an evening.

Who knows what we may wake up to tomorrow.

Have a good one
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Quoting stormdude77:


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Quoting StormW:


Good! You?

i am good except that workstation issue...haha
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Quoting pottery:
post 1940 JAVA
the tornado was near Chaguanas, central Trinidad. A small one. But quite the classic formation.
I live near there, and noticed strange weather overhead, and commented on it. But it was raining hard and I never went out to see what was going on.......


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WIN-ANTIVIRUS, and variants are what I call "scare-ware"..... the virus will "spoof" itself as being an antivirus program, showing that you are infected with many viri.... but it actually is the virus.

The creators have gotten very creative, by placing the enable button behind anywhere you can click. Once the "pop-up" comes up, if you click on anything, you are basically screwed.

If you start getting "tons" of pop-ups, warning of Viri....... you are infected.....

once again, to remove, use this free program....

http://download.cnet.com/Malwarebytes-Anti-Malware/3000-8022_4-10804572.html

download, install, update, and do a QUICK scan.... this will get rid of the virus.

As far as where it came from, I would like just 10-minutes in a room with the virus writer! Introduce them to redneck justice! LOL
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I got a question for the techno savvy out there...

How could just entering the blog and posting comments lead to a virus or malware attack?

Seems to me that you would have to download and run an executable file. That said, I know that "tracking" cookies could make there way in unbeknown to many...Which is why I make firefox ask me every time a cookie is set and I usually only allow for session...

Just seems to my mildly tech savvy self that it would be hard to get infected by a virus from the blog...
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2022. Patrap
Im around,..Im in Dark Vader Lurk Mode..


Swoooooosh,...Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh............


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134697
Quoting RMM34667:


I was on the Bozo TV show when I was a very little kid. (about 40 years ago) But the mean guy with the popcorn machine scared me. I was carried off to my mother. And all my 5 brothers and sister got goody bags and I didn't. I was a terrible day. I remember like it was yesterday!


My good friend's grandfather was the original Bozo The Clown. They have his famous red haired wig in a glass case in their basement...true story. Another interesting tidbit that also has nothing to do with weather is that "Bozo" found Jim Hensen playing with marionettes on a street corner and started him on the path that would eventually lead to... The Muppets! And now back to the invest...
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thank u acemett90, i am just glad my laptop is ok. the workstations have security and websense and so usually any public or unsafe sites will not load, but we have always used wu with no problem. so idk but i hope my laptop is good...
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i have one ? is anything gonna develope
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Why would put a virus on a weather blog? Makes no sense. Typical Teenage trolls. I ran a scan and Didn't get anything, I guess Im a lucky one.


why do you assume it was a teenager? most teenagers don't even know how to post viruses
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<----- is on a mac no virus. sucks someone would intentionally place a malware virus link in here
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2013. java162
Quoting pottery:
post 1940 JAVA
the tornado was near Chaguanas, central Trinidad. A small one. But quite the classic formation.
I live near there, and noticed strange weather overhead, and commented on it. But it was raining hard and I never went out to see what was going on.......



thats interesting!!!
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I would just like to say the past 2 days I came to this site on this blog, a fake virus scanner downloaded on my computer and infected files on my computer. I don't know if this happened today to people, but it has happened to me when I was on this blog.

Edit: I have deleted all the files that were infected, I also now run 2 virus scanners daily to make sure it doesn't happen again.
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Why would put a virus on a weather blog? Makes no sense. Typical Teenage trolls. I ran a scan and Didn't get anything, I guess Im a lucky one.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 25148
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Oh dear Lord, Bozo the clown. Haven't seen him in YEARS! Thanks for the memories Storm W!


I was on the Bozo TV show when I was a very little kid. (about 40 years ago) But the mean guy with the popcorn machine scared me. I was carried off to my mother. And all my 5 brothers and sister got goody bags and I didn't. I was a terrible day. I remember like it was yesterday!
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Quoting PcolaDan:

Suppose you want to show loop of Caribbean water vapor. First go to that page, highlite and cop the page (see example)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
Then click "image" and insert link and presto.



I think he was pulling everyone's chain !
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2007. IKE
I've got viruses off of links on this website before, but not for at least 2 years.

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Quoting btwntx08:

my #25 victim
And you are my #100 victim.
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Hi Storm...=) how are you?
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Quoting StormW:
Never posted one before...how do I post a satellite loop image?

TIA

Suppose you want to show loop of Caribbean water vapor. First go to that page, highlite and cop the page (see example)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
Then click "image" and insert link and presto.

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Quoting sammywammybamy:



Do i click



Peform Quick Scan or Peform Full Scan?

And yes i will post my results


QUICK SCAN!!!!
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2001. Dakster
Quoting Acemmett90:

that would be an instant ban lol


I would think so... Hey StormW posted Bozo the clown, my old boss...

Acemmett90 - Check your mail.

Any chance that the yellow circle will get an invest and get posted here?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11812
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Same here.

Ran my virus scan (as I do every night) and no threats to be found.


just ran spybot and house call by trend micro and everything is clean
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My scan is almost finished and so far so good.
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1997. WxLogic
Got to love LINUX... :)
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1996. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
12:00 PM HST August 10 2009
==============================================

Visible imagery indicates that an area of low pressure (92C) located about 925 miles southwest of the Hawaiian islands has become better organized during the past few hours. Conditions appear favorable for additional development, and this system could become a tropical depression later today or tonight as it moves westward at about 15 mph.

Tropical Cyclone formation Potential
=====================================
There is a HIGH risk of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
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1994. pottery
post 1940 JAVA
the tornado was near Chaguanas, central Trinidad. A small one. But quite the classic formation.
I live near there, and noticed strange weather overhead, and commented on it. But it was raining hard and I never went out to see what was going on.......
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Quoting sammywammybamy:



Thank you ,

I am currently Installing and Using it...


Trolls Are not that bad

But Viruses are Horrible


Sammy, please report your results, so that others who don't know will feel safe using it....

lots of people here may not know me...... which may be good! LOL

once again....

http://download.cnet.com/Malwarebytes-Anti-Malware/3000-8022_4-10804572.html
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Quoting Twinkster:



i just went back to page 15 and everything is fine


Same here.

Ran my virus scan (as I do every night) and no threats to be found.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Oh dear Lord, Bozo the clown. Haven't seen him in YEARS! Thanks for the memories Storm W!


My sides are hurting LOL
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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