Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2009

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A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.

Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.


Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.

Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

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Quoting philliesrock:
GFS is a major east coast hit...again

NEVER MIND...I was looking at an old run. It hits Hispaniola and curves out to sea.
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LOL everyone is calling the wave coming off Africa Bill........it could be ANA......LOL
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2536. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ETAU (T0909)
12:00 PM JST August 11 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Etau (992 hPa) located at 33.3N 139.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The storm is reported as moving east at 17 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in south quadrant
70 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 33.6N 147.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 34.7N 149.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 36.1N 153.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Quoting philliesrock:
GFS is a major east coast hit...again


Where do you get such advanced times from?
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Quoting Vortex95:
What exactly is goin on here with these viruses? how are you guys getting them?

don't goto page fifthteen its a mine field
99L is in about 8 knots of shear so that not the problem...

Divergence


And convergence are low BUT improving.

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Quoting philliesrock:
GFS is a major east coast hit...again


link please?
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Quoting Wariac:
so where is future "bill" headed?
We don't even have present Ana yet, so there is no future Bill. Before you start panicking on long range models, which have been WAY off so far this season, lets wait for something to develop before we truly need to worry about where it MIGHT be heading. There will be plenty of time for tracking an actual storm when/if it forms.
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What exactly is goin on here with these viruses? how are you guys getting them?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


So...Lets Talk about 99L....


Sammy 99L is looking darn good and much better. The further West it goes the better the environment becomes.....the next 24hrs will be big to see if 99L will be a player.
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Quoting philliesrock:
GFS is a major east coast hit...again

DAMN!!!
GFS is a major east coast hit...again
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2526. ackee
can somebody please highligh to me where is the current wave the GFS is devloping into bill
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Takes out **Violin**

Plays a Few Sad Notes..


can we get back to 99L that is going off like a nuke
Quoting Wariac:
so where is future "bill" headed?


WAY too early.
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Quoting Drakoen:


drama drama drama


Takes out **Violin**

Plays a Few Sad Notes..

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It continues...but for how long?

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Quoting SavannahStorm:


SILENCE! You have been reported to the Chamber of Commerce for spreading the lie that hurricanes can hit Georgia. The Georgia Chamber of Commerce wants no dissension on its assertion that the Great State of Georgia is Hurricane Proof.


Sorry, my bad. :(
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2520. Drakoen
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Need to publicly apologize to Drak for being such an inconsiderate (you know what word I want to use but can't use or I'll be banned) given the situation you're going through and the frustration you must be feeling. It was wrong to jump on you like that and I feel terrible man. I really hope everything gets fixed and things turn out for the best for you. I have so much respect for you and I'm sure you've lost some in me tonight. I deserve that.


drama drama drama
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
2519. Wariac
so where is future "bill" headed?
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Quoting Drakoen:



Wunderground supports ads that have viruses.

I am new at blogging but I have been reading this blog for 2 years. Any one that has this problem should buy a router and block the web page (antivirusbestscan5.com)...
It worked for me... Or buy a firewall software… but I don’t like using them since it may slow your computer…

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


No offense but almost every time your here you have something to publicly announce.

Either you like attention or you have allot of stuff going on.



CCHS Weathermen

YA could of Sent Him a Private Message...

No reason to anounce it to the world..
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Impressive! "Bill" is having a big entry to the Atlantic. So, models are pointing near SC, mayor 'cane. Aparently, no more sleeping Atlantic...
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Quoting extreme236:


Drama...


So...Lets Talk about 99L....
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The 00Z GFS has trended further southward on this run with future ''Bill''
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Need to publicly apologize to Drak for being such an inconsiderate (you know what word I want to use but can't use or I'll be banned) given the situation you're going through and the frustration you must be feeling. It was wrong to jump on you like that and I feel terrible man. I really hope everything gets fixed and things turn out for the best for you. I have so much respect for you and I'm sure you've lost some in me tonight. I deserve that.


No offense but almost every time your here you have something to publicly announce.

Either you like attention or you have allot of stuff going on.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Need to publicly apologize to Drak for being such an inconsiderate (you know what word I want to use but can't use or I'll be banned) given the situation you're going through and the frustration you must be feeling. It was wrong to jump on you like that and I feel terrible man. I really hope everything gets fixed and things turn out for the best for you. I have so much respect for you and I'm sure you've lost some in me tonight. I deserve that.


Drama...
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Thank you very mcuh for your heartfelt b-day wishes, Huraken.

Happy BIrth day now run Bill is comming to your house with his girlfriend ana shes a firecracker lol
For all the people worrying about viruses... I post on here a lot, and I haven't been infected. I normally don't blindly click on links (I check where it is going), and at home, I run avast!, AdAware, and Spybot S&D. It does completely suck that people's hardware is getting trashed by someone who thinks they are being funny hacking blogs or adding infected links.

As for the source, if you use Firefox... get NoScripts. It is a bit irritating to get set up, but right now, there are 19 scripts being blocked just on this page alone... and none of them are ads. (I pay $10 a year to get no ads on here)

For people who have trashed computers... it is not your entire computer. It is the data on your hard disk. Most of it can be recovered by someone with the right tools and knowledge, if it is that valuable. Most likely, this virus/trojan is messing with people's boot sectors and file tables, so your computer can't find the data. Its still there, the computer just doesn't know where. You don't need to replace your entire computer, it is literally impossible for a virus (a computer program) to physically damage components of your computer. The most you might have to do is format your hard drive, or if you want to try recovering data, you may just need to buy a new hard drive and reinstall everything. www.newegg.com has the best prices if you want to go that route.

On the weather front, it seems that 99L got a little big for its britches and tried to go toe-to-toe with the SAL layer, and well... lost horribly. The wave coming off the coast looks nice now, but I don't see a huge amount of circulation, and the one right after it looks better IMO.
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Thank you very mcuh for your heartfelt b-day wishes, Huraken.
.
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Quoting Twisterman555:


Well I don't know of any major hurricanes, but Hurricane David of 1979 hit Georgia for a second landfall as a minimal hurricane.


SILENCE! You have been reported to the Chamber of Commerce for spreading the lie that hurricanes can hit Georgia. The Georgia Chamber of Commerce wants no dissension on its assertion that the Great State of Georgia is Hurricane Proof.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Hurricane Bill 150 hours.


the poor winwords
Hurricane Bill 150 hours.

Probably strong Cat 1.
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we recently had an issue like this on our site, with viruses in ads. we had to contact our ad provider and get the ad pulled. they did not do their job in providing us with secure ads, and we didn't even know they had dropped the ball until people had already been infected.

this is not wunderground's fault. only if they do not take care of it are they at any fault.
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JFV...don't wait!

Go to a 24-hour Publix right now and buy yourself a dad-gum birthday cake, put 3 "zero" candles on it and blow 'em out!

HURRY!

You really could de-jinx this season and get things going! :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3887
2501. JRRP
Quoting Wariac:
JRRP do you see any of those waves coming near PR?

the wave near 50w
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Crap acidently open page 15 IE got pissed and clossed but im safe
oh yah
Baby Buzzsaw
Quoting hunkerdown:
A macro band would be a large band, amazing what happens when you transpose two letters


Marco as in the storm last year.
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Strong TS Bill

120 hours

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Quoting Acemmett90:

im going with macro bands
A macro band would be a large band, amazing what happens when you transpose two letters
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the only way wunderground can be held responsible is if they do not do something about it. and just so you know, the majority of the sites on the internet use google ads.
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Quoting hurricaneguy87:
Anybody got the latest image from the 00GFS run?


Click at your own risk...


Or
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/model_l.shtml
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2494. JRRP
a bit more south
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Quoting caribbeansurvivor1:
99l....getting healthier...right JLPR??and going so...."west-ie"


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Quoting hunkerdown:
look like outflow boundaries, not bands.


Thats what I meant but was drawing a blank on the word...thanks.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well....*if* the virus came from one of the ads on here, then yes wunderground approved the ads and wunderground is repsonsible. If it came from a link that some fool put in a comment, then that person needs to be identified.


no, it doesn't work like that. they don't submit ads for you to approve, they just send you ads. you work out a deal with the ad provider, and they send their ads directly to your site without any input from you.
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2490. Drakoen
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well....*if* the virus came from one of the ads on here, then yes wunderground approved the ads and wunderground is repsonsible. If it came from a link that some fool put in a comment, then that person needs to be identified.


Thank You
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30613
Quoting Acemmett90:

its a baby buzz saw look carefully you'll see


Okay, it's a buzz saw already, but set on really low RPMs.

Go ahead, put your finger on it...see...

No blood {yet}
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3887

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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