Hurricane Felicia hits Category 3; may affect Hawaii next week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 05, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

As is often the case in an El Niño year, there's nothing to talk about today in the Atlantic, but the Eastern Pacific is very active. It has been 17 years since we went this long without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic--the hurricane season of 1992 didn't start until August 16--but in the Eastern Pacific, we've already had six named storms this year. Hurricane Felicia is the latest addition, and Felicia has put on an impressive burst of intensification this morning by powering up to Category 3 status with 115 mph winds. Recent satellite loops show that Felicia has continued to intensify, with the cloud tops surrounding the eye cooling as they push higher into the troposphere.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.

While Felicia is an impressive hurricane now, its days of glory will be short-lived. Felicia is currently passing over a region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 28.5°C, a full 2.5°C above the 26°C threshold needed to sustain a hurricane. These warm waters also extend to great depth, as seen on the Ocean Heat Content image (Figure 2). Felicia's west-northwest track will take the storm into a region of cooler waters with lower Oceanic Heat Content beginning tonight, which should induce a steady weakening trend beginning Thursday night. By Friday morning, SSTs should fall to 26°C, and decline to 25°C by Saturday. While wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next five days, 5 - 15 knots, the cooler SSTs should be able to significantly weaken the hurricane. By Monday, when most of the computer models indicate that Felicia will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, the storm will be at tropical depression strength with top winds of about 35 mph, according to the latest runs of the HWRF and GFDL models. Exactly how close Felicia will get to the Hawaiian Islands is a bit tricky to call right now, since the hurricane is interacting with nearby Tropical Storm Enrique. Whenever two storms get within 900 miles of each other, they tend to rotate around a common center in a dance called the Fujiwhara Effect. This sort of storm-storm interaction is a complicated affair not well-handled by the computer forecast models.


Figure 2. Total oceanic heat content (also called the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) along the forecast path of Hurricane Felicia. The initial time of the forecast is 06 UTC (1 am EDT) on August 5, 2009. Oceanic heat content of 90 kJ per square cm is often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Felicia is currently over waters with high heat content, but the heat content will steadily decrease over the next two days. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

There are no areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no computer models forecast tropical storm development over the next seven days.

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1183 - 1133

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

OMG Felicia is quite the cane...look at that eye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello Aussie as say unlweatherman has a very deep and clear eye anular, conditions are good but at this point is hard to increase power, i think all depend direction if keeps direction west have a considerable chance to get CAT5.

Hey Claudette1234. I don't think it'll hit Cat 5...but 150mph Cat 4 might not be out of the ballbark. In fact it might be already there as it looks better organized than it did when the advisory came out a couple hours ago. If it holds its intensity to 1am I expected a further 5-10mph increase in strength. Getting to such a high intensity and its change to an annular structure will certainly help it survive longer as it moves over 24-25C waters and turns west toward Hawaii. How strong it'll be when it gets there is anyone's guess. Intensity forecasting is a crazy science hours out, let alone 5 days out. The only educated guess I can make is that it won't be a hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1181. BDAwx
Could it be just as bad in terms of rainfall for Felicia/remnants of Enrique to move to the south of Hawaii because of orographic lifting forces interacting with the moisture rotating onshore from their circulation, than if it passes right over Hawaii?

sorry for poor wording...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
Quoting AussieStorm:

Will Felicia get to a Cat 5?????


Hello Aussie as say unlweatherman has a very deep and clear eye anular, conditions are good but at this point is hard to increase power, i think all depend direction if keeps direction west have a considerable chance to get CAT5.
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
1178. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


well geez, is that still Lana out there.. O_O

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've learned that yahoo weather and weather underground factor in tropical cyclones and hurricanes in their forecast for the day. Not msn or other websites i've been to for weather, but none of them are too accurate for example the weather forcast for taipei which is in the direct path of typhoon Morakot but it says that it will only rain about a third of an inch and a tenth when we know it's so huge that it will dump rain for days. In fact it already started now and won't end for about 4 days. Anyway, do you know any websites that can correctly forecast the tropical weather into the daily forecast, THANK YOU!!!

P.S... The rain amounts changed right when i previewed the comment to check but that still isn't that right amount of rain that will fall. ( It just shows you it's always good to check)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone agree that there is a chance that as enrique's circulation gets absorbed into Felicia that it will keep Felicia a little farther to the south and just out of the cooler waters, which would, discounting the area of wind shear and dryer air, keep Felicia from weakening so dramatically?

I don't think Felicia will absorb Enrique's circulation as it's actually far enough away. It is stealing some of it's moisture though. I think Enrique will end up dying out on its own as the NHC depicts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1175. BDAwx
If you looked at Felicia two-three days ago you wouldn't recognize her...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow winds 140 mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Claudette1234:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1172. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
JTWC stopped making track maps for the EPAC =P

they're using NWS/NHC track map now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1171. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WTPN31 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 010
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
0300 UTC THU AUG 06 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.5W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT.......105NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.5W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.1W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1170. BDAwx
Does anyone agree that there is a chance that as enrique's circulation gets absorbed into Felicia that it will keep Felicia a little farther to the south and just out of the cooler waters, which would, discounting the area of wind shear and dryer air, keep Felicia from weakening so dramatically?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
Quoting Claudette1234:
Hello

Felicia is very impresive is near to get CAT5 Hurricane.

Will Felicia get to a Cat 5?????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello

Felicia is very impresive is near to get CAT5 Hurricane.
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
Felicia is really starting to look annular...just a ring of convection with a clear eye right dead center. It reminds me a lot of Hurricane Daniel of 2006 which also became annular. It's gotta be in the 140-150mph range right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1165. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
oh okay. but it sure is taking JTWC to release the 4:00am UTC warning for Felicia.
i know she is a cat four now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1164. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2009 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 14:53:17 N Lon : 130:30:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 935.0mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.5 6.5 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +10.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1163. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
oh okay. but it sure is taking JTWC to release the 4:00am UTC warning for Felicia.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BDAwx:
I really hope that the public realizes that being in a cat 5 hurricane doesn't mean you've had cat 5 winds, not all wind throughout the hurricane is equal, and assuming so could prove deadly... especially:

"ive been through cat 3 hurricanes and got no damage and i think we'll be fine for this cat 1"

"I couldn't believe how strong the winds were! I've been in some pretty bad hurricanes in the past but i must say this one is the worst, in future i will definitely heed evacuations!"

But some people aren't lucky enough to get to the second quote....


Just like Ike those winds were sustained for so long it felt stronger than a 2 glad we are 70 miles inland and didn't have to feel the full force of it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1161. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #22
TROPICAL STORM GONI (T0907)
9:00 AM JST August 6 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Overland South China

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Goni (990 hPa) located at 22.0N 111.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as almost stationary

RMSC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 21.5N 110.7E - Tropical Depression

---
sure is staying at 35kts overland/coastal region for awhile now..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1160. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
wrong advisory Keeper

states 1800 UTC..
that was a mistake hades been removed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:
"run from the water hide from the wind" That is my backup where is yours?
Quoting a politician, an appointed "official" and a lawyer!
I'll put my degrees up against theirs any day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1158. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
wrong advisory Keeper

states 1800 UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Stay if you want to. I don't know how many different ways I can say it. That AWEFUL evacuation worked! Just be smart about things. This guy thought he was. He wasnt in an evacuation zone either. I sincerely hope that there are enough strong buildings in Florida to shelter everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1156. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
x
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1155. gator23
Quoting stormno:
gator my backup is common sense ...enough said...Stormno

Evacuate if you want. i am not saying not to evacuate. I am saying that you may not need to. I have done everything the blog rules ask which is to provide backup for statements made.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1154. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr

Beijing uses 2 minute winds sustained average and India uses 3 minute sustained winds average

else uses the 10 minute sustained winds average in the world
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1153. stormno
gator my backup is common sense ...enough said...Stormno
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1152. gator23
Quoting hunkerdown:
And I am done with you...but you should stop spreading crap to people who may feel you would be saving their life when in reality you could very well be putting them in harms way, or even worse, facing death.


I am just saying what i was told by people smarter than both you and I is the smart move. If people choose to listen then they can do that just as I can choose to repost my opinion on a blog. But if you insist here Link and here Link and hereLink

A ton of news articles and EOC recommendations all using the term "run from the water hide from the wind" That is my backup where is yours?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1150. BDAwx
I really hope that the public realizes that being in a cat 5 hurricane doesn't mean you've had cat 5 winds, not all wind throughout the hurricane is equal, and assuming so could prove deadly... especially:

"ive been through cat 3 hurricanes and got no damage and i think we'll be fine for this cat 1"

"I couldn't believe how strong the winds were! I've been in some pretty bad hurricanes in the past but i must say this one is the worst, in future i will definitely heed evacuations!"

But some people aren't lucky enough to get to the second quote....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:

lol well i agree with you here. Opening a window is not a good idea.


Hotel window locations at S. Padre Island: North / South with a view window on W hallway.

Dolly's wind direction during height of storm: from WNW.

Cracking all balcony doors equalized the pressure on the entire floor and dissipated the force of the storm against the glass structures. Instead of bowing in until they popped, they were able to give enough to stay intact. Every person on my floor slept in a dry bed that night.

Disagree if you want with what I did, but I made the right move that morning. That, as a fact, cannot be disputed.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 4020
1148. stormno
hunkerdown i agree with you 100% gator you are going to get a lot of people killed if they listen to you and max....the last time i checked max mayfield wasnt GOD man...get a grip you are saying things totally unethical...i know you have better sense then that...Stormno
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Saffir-Simpson Scale (1 minute sustained wind):
TD <39 mph
TS 39-73 mph
Cat 1 74-95 mph
Cat 2 96-110 mph
Cat 3 111-130 mph
Cat 4 131-155 mph
Cat 5 156+ mph

Enhanced Fujita Scale (3 second gust)
EF0 65-85 mph
EF1 86-110 mph
EF2 111-135 mph
EF3 136-165 mph
EF4 166-200 mph
EF5 200+ mph


I realize that you cannot compare hurricanes to tornadoes. The duration of the winds in hurricanes is going to be significantly longer than in tornadoes, and a hurricane is much larger than a tornado (though Wilma did have a 2 nmi eye and the largest tornado was 2.5 miles in diameter). One would also need to run one of the two scales through a conversion because of the difference in the time factor for measured winds, and since the hurricane scale requires a longer period for a valid wind measurement, converting the SSHWS to 3 second gusts would result in the SSHWS wind speeds significantly faster. This is demonstrated with the Australian cyclone scale, which requires a sustained 10 minute wind; Aussie hurricanes have a much higher "sustained wind" when they are converted to the American scale.

But the SSHWS and Enhanced Fujita scale can give a rough comparison.

Anyone who would choose not to evacuate when they are expected to get Category 4 or 5 winds... would you also choose to stay in a house in the direct path of an EF4 or EF5 tornado if you had enough lead time to safely leave? (Again, not trying to start a debate about the merits of driving away from tornadoes.) If not, why not?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Honestly Taz, I don't feel like it tonight. Maybe some other time. Sorry.



well ok then see you sat then
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Honestly Taz, I don't feel like it tonight. Maybe some other time. Sorry.



grrrrr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #24
TYPHOON MORAKOT (T0908)
12:00 PM JST August 6 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South of Okinawa

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Morakot (960 hPa) located at 23.4N 127.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The typhoon is reported as west at 13 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale-force Winds
================
350 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 24.5N 123.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 25.3N 121.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
69 HRS: 26.5N 119.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)


I've always wondered why they measure wind as 10 mins sustained
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1143. BDAwx
if there were category five force winds over your home there will be damage no matter what imo...
if you say you've been in these winds and have no damage to you're house think twice, because that could be incorrect and lead to no evacuation in the future =death...

if your house survived cat5 winds with no damage what-so-ever please tell others the secret to your home's survival!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



buzz buzz buzz whats talk on IM


Honestly Taz, I don't feel like it tonight. Maybe some other time. Sorry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:

so done with you. If you dont agree with me fine. You can read below and click the links of the articles i left so that you can read for yourself. Max Mayfield discussed this on his blog.
Im glad you dont live in Miami-Dade either.
And I am done with you...but you should stop spreading crap to people who may feel you would be saving their life when in reality you could very well be putting them in harms way, or even worse, facing death.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:

so done with you. If you dont agree with me fine. You can read below and click the links of the articles i left so that you can read for yourself. Max Mayfield discussed this on his blog.
Im glad you dont live in Miami-Dade either.
Isn't this the fellow who in an earlier post said he's back from being banned?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm not on IM...



buzz buzz buzz whats talk on IM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1138. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #24
TYPHOON MORAKOT (T0908)
12:00 PM JST August 6 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South of Okinawa

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Morakot (960 hPa) located at 23.4N 127.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The typhoon is reported as west at 13 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale-force Winds
================
350 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 24.5N 123.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 25.3N 121.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
69 HRS: 26.5N 119.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1137. gator23
Quoting hunkerdown:
Hey gator, would do/would the experts say about this ? I know in a single family home or townhouse it would be a good way to lose your roof.

lol well i agree with you here. Opening a window is not a good idea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1136. BDAwx
cracking windows before a hurricane does equalize the pressure but I would think that it dangerous if you only open them on one or two sides of the building, as this could make the pressures inside the house lower than outside and the roof could collapse instead of the windows bowing out/ roof blowing off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not all buildings in the tri-county area are built post 1992...and there are no guarantees.

totally agree, plus add the empty foreclosed homes as a hazard...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1134. gator23
Quoting hunkerdown:
There are no Guarantees.

so done with you. If you dont agree with me fine. You can read below and click the links of the articles i left so that you can read for yourself. Max Mayfield discussed this on his blog.
Im glad you dont live in Miami-Dade either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CycloneOz:
And since the glass exploded all over the rooms of the other floors, the hurricane was free to enter the room, too.

It was a mess...you should have seen it.

I gave you a glimpse of the damage to our hotel in my Experience Hurricane Dolly video. That particular shot was from the 7th floor. I was on the 8th.

Everyone on my floor came by to thank me that evening after the storm. The rest of the hotel occupants had to exist in the hotel lobby, which was expansive...and good thing! 200 people had to live down there.
Hey gator, would do/would the experts say about this ? I know in a single family home or townhouse it would be a good way to lose your roof.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1183 - 1133

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
45 °F
Light Rain