Hurricane Felicia hits Category 3; may affect Hawaii next week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 05, 2009

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As is often the case in an El Niño year, there's nothing to talk about today in the Atlantic, but the Eastern Pacific is very active. It has been 17 years since we went this long without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic--the hurricane season of 1992 didn't start until August 16--but in the Eastern Pacific, we've already had six named storms this year. Hurricane Felicia is the latest addition, and Felicia has put on an impressive burst of intensification this morning by powering up to Category 3 status with 115 mph winds. Recent satellite loops show that Felicia has continued to intensify, with the cloud tops surrounding the eye cooling as they push higher into the troposphere.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.

While Felicia is an impressive hurricane now, its days of glory will be short-lived. Felicia is currently passing over a region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 28.5°C, a full 2.5°C above the 26°C threshold needed to sustain a hurricane. These warm waters also extend to great depth, as seen on the Ocean Heat Content image (Figure 2). Felicia's west-northwest track will take the storm into a region of cooler waters with lower Oceanic Heat Content beginning tonight, which should induce a steady weakening trend beginning Thursday night. By Friday morning, SSTs should fall to 26°C, and decline to 25°C by Saturday. While wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next five days, 5 - 15 knots, the cooler SSTs should be able to significantly weaken the hurricane. By Monday, when most of the computer models indicate that Felicia will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, the storm will be at tropical depression strength with top winds of about 35 mph, according to the latest runs of the HWRF and GFDL models. Exactly how close Felicia will get to the Hawaiian Islands is a bit tricky to call right now, since the hurricane is interacting with nearby Tropical Storm Enrique. Whenever two storms get within 900 miles of each other, they tend to rotate around a common center in a dance called the Fujiwhara Effect. This sort of storm-storm interaction is a complicated affair not well-handled by the computer forecast models.


Figure 2. Total oceanic heat content (also called the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) along the forecast path of Hurricane Felicia. The initial time of the forecast is 06 UTC (1 am EDT) on August 5, 2009. Oceanic heat content of 90 kJ per square cm is often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Felicia is currently over waters with high heat content, but the heat content will steadily decrease over the next two days. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

There are no areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no computer models forecast tropical storm development over the next seven days.

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Good Morning,

Nothing in the tropics worth mentioning except that upper low north of the islands but if development was to occur it would take days and that does not seem likely at this moment. None of the models forecasting anything through the weekend. Nothing has change much with Felicia as I expect it to reach Haiwii as a tropical depression or tropical storm and that seems to be the official guidance. If nothing significantly changes my next blog will be weekend (no use watching paint dry), where I hope to discuss Hawaii's hurricane history, which is only part 1 of a series of El Nino blogs I have plan, with the others being Australia, the Galapagos, and California.

Normal Season Still Expected; Hurricane Felicia
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1232. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #24
TROPICAL STORM GONI (T0907)
18:00 PM JST August 6 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Overland South China

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Goni (990 hPa) located at 22.0N 110.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 6 knots

RMSC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 21.1N 110.1E - Tropical Depression

--
...and here is the storm that won't go away O_o
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1231. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Taiwan has a typhoon Warning now in effect

07fW40063
WTCI RCTP 060900 =
WARNING VALID 070900Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TYPHOON 200908 (MORAKOT 200908) WARNING =
POSITION 060900Z AT TWO THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ( 23.4N ) ONE TWO SIX POINT ONE EAST ( 126.1E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS WEST BECOMING WNW 20KM/HR BECOMING 16KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 955 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 40 METER PER SECOND GUST 50 METER PER SECOND =

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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Typhoon Morakot's northern eyewall is eroded, and it appears to be aiming for the southern tip of Taiwan. If it's going to intensify to a cat. 3 or cat. 4 it doesn't have a lot of time.


The enormity of the circulation should prevent rapid intensification, despite a rather favorable upper-level outflow pattern.
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1229. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
JMA still has the center of Morakot (Kiko) tracking towards the mountainous northern Taiwan region
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1228. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
FKPQ30 RJTD 060600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090806/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: MORAKOT
NR: 13
PSN: N2320 E12625
MOV: W 15KT
C: 960HPA
MAX WIND: 75KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 06/1200Z N2335 E12500
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 06/1800Z N2405 E12340
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 07/0000Z N2435 E12250
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 07/0600Z N2505 E12200
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 90KT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1227. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #26
TYPHOON MORAKOT (T0908)
18:00 PM JST August 6 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South of Okinawa

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Morakot (960 hPa) located at 23.2N 126.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The typhoon is reported as west at 9 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-force Winds
==================
110 NM from the center

Gale-force Winds
================
350 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 25.1N 122.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 26.0N 120.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
69 HRS: 27.8N 118.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
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Typhoon Morakot's northern eyewall is eroded, and it appears to be aiming for the southern tip of Taiwan. If it's going to intensify to a cat. 3 or cat. 4 it doesn't have a lot of time.
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1225. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "KIKO" has intensified further as it moves closer to Northern Taiwan.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Kiko (Morakot) located at 23.3°N 125.9°E or 450 kms northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 140 km/h (75 knots) with gustiness of 170 km/h (90 knots).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Batanes group of Islands
2.Babuyan group of Islands
3.Calayan group of Islands

Additional Information
=====================
This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over Luzon and Western Visayas.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concern are advised to take approriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

---
Kiko can still raise signal for not hardly being in the AOR =P
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1224. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
well darn.. laggy blog is laggy with posting comments =/
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1223. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Meteo France
High Sea Forecast for the eastern Atlantic

Low 1005 in far south of Algeria.
Low 1013 by 12N 32W, moving Westward.
New low 1013 by 12N 17W at
07/00 UTC, expected by 12N 24W at 08/00 UTC.


Tropical wave along 28/29W south of 16N, moving Westward at 10 kt.

ITCZ along 10N 14W 13N 32W 07N 50W.
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HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009

...FELICIA MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
LATER TODAY...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1480 MILES...2380 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELICIA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS
AS FELICIA MOVES OVER COLDER WATER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155
MILES...250 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.5N 131.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
----------------
They note in the forecast discussion that Felicia may have peaked at 145mph earlier in the evening. I'm personally pretty certain it did.
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From the latest WFO Honolulu Forecast Discussion:

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MAJOR
HURRICANE FELICIA...CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1650 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...AND TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE...WHICH IS AROUND
1950 MILES EAST OF HILO. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF FELICIA...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF...AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING...THE
STATE AS A TROPICAL STORM OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IF SO...FELECIA
MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE
AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
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Rains begins in Taiwan
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Thanks for the responses unlweatherman & claudette.

Yes, I suppose Felicia will slow down once she hits land, especially MK and ML. I am curious though what her path and speed might be after that encounter. Where I am next to some 2,000 cliffy mountains, it makes a big difference whether strong winds come at us from the south or not. (South/Kona winds race down those cliffs and wash over us like a phantom tsunami).

And here's an interesting thought... I wonder what effect prolonged flooding rain might have on the eruption at Kilauea? Talk about a battle between the forces of nature!
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Hi Uwekalani-

The biggest threat to the Big Island of Hawaii is flooding rains if the system makes landfall or makes a close approach as a depression or minimal tropical storm. If that happens, Monday looks to be the day for it. Remember that big Kona Low that struck the Islands (particularly the Western Islands) for days last Fall and caused major flooding in Kauai and Oahu? Yeah, that'd be the Big Island's worst case scenario with any tropical cyclone hitting it. The waters and atmospheric environment isn't too conductive to producing a extreme wind event from a tropical cyclone. But flooding rains are a possibly depending on how organized it is if and when it arrives.
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Felicia if gets hawaii have a chance of 65% TD 33% TS 2% CAT1
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
Hi all,

I'd like to hear what you guys think about what might happen to Felicia if/when she encounters the Big Island. If she makes landfall there, she encounters two very large mountains, Mauna Kea (13,796 feet elev) and Mauna Loa (roughly same elev).

I remember when Hurricane Iniki(1992) parked herself over the entire island of Kaua'i for hours. It was devastating. How might a relatively small land mass that is surrounded by ocean affect the course of a hurricane or tropical storm?

I'll look for your answers in a while. I'm off to pick up some lanterns, bottled water, and gas up the car before the crowds.

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Quoting unlweatherman:
Felicia is incredible! I saw that 145mph tag on the US Navy tropical cyclone site. Amazing.


Yeah probably 145mph will be the next oficcial report at NHC amazing
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Felicia is incredible! I saw that 145mph tag on the US Navy tropical cyclone site. Amazing.
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10N 117W would be mark as yellow circle next NHC report
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Quoting unlweatherman:
Felicia and Enrique seem to be doing a dance with each other right now.


Hello

Yeah Enrique is racing Felicia.

The eyewall of Felicia is bigger an bigger, spectacular eye
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
1211. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #25
TYPHOON MORAKOT (T0908)
15:00 PM JST August 6 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Morakot (960 hPa) located at 23.3N 126.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The typhoon is reported as west at 15 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm-force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale-force Winds
================
350 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 25.1N 122.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 26.0N 120.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 27.8N 118.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
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Felicia and Enrique seem to be doing a dance with each other right now.
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08EFELICIA.125kts-935mb-151N-1308W

125kts = 144mhp

12mph more and will be a CAT5 hurricane
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yeah, i've been watching that little guy poof and flare up all day.
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Quoting unlweatherman:
The deep convection of Felicia is shrinking...it's turning into a small, intense ball of convection with a hole in it lol.


What about Atlantic The wave still there most people died it but looking maps still a chance to survive.
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Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
The deep convection of Felicia is shrinking...it's turning into a small, intense ball of convection with a hole in it lol.
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IN ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA THAT ALREADY IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALONG
24N66W 19N66W 16N67W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W TO THE SOUTH
OF CUBA MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN THE AREA OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN
PRECIPITATION JUST WITH THE WAVE AND PRECIPITATION THAT JUST
IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE
WEST OF 75W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 13N32W 7N50W INTO
NORTHWESTERN GUYANA/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
30W...AND FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N34W...MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR CUBA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
19N93W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THIS AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM CUBA TO 25N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 75W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TO 22N96W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS
OF 29N89W AT THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIP OF LOUISIANA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 94W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N82W 25N85W 22N86W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA..
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N66W
TO 24N66W 19N66W 16N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN
62W AND 69W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND PUERTO RICO.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N64W 23N66W 19N67W. THIS TROUGH USED
TO BE THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL WAVE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 16N65W TO THE PENINSULA DE
PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER
THE AREA TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 17N63W 12N70W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ORIENTED ALONG THE COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA IS SPREADING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 13N74W 16N82W 17N88W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 79W AND CENTRAL
AMERICA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...THE 82W TROPICAL WAVE...AND ABOUT
180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N78W
IN THE PROVIDENCE CHANNEL...IN BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND GRAND
BAHAMA AND ABACO ISLAND OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 22N77W 26N78W 31N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N36W TO 19N46W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS TROUGH.

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East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060318
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FELICIA NEAR 14.9N 130.5W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 937 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 06 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT
10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. A
WELL DEFINED EYE IS OBSERVED. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
OBSERVED AROUND THE SYSTEM AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL BEGIN THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NW. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE NEAR 19.7N 124.6W WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 06 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT
15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE E
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THURSDAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW
FRIDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND IS NORTH
OF 06N ALONG 81W/82W AND IS MOVING WEST 15 KT. A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE. THE CONVECTION DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED BY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE
COMPUTER FORECAST MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY REMAIN
ORGANIZED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N TO 16N ALONG 112W MOVING W 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM WEST OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THERE IS NO ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO
09N115W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 06.5N82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT
08.5N115.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS MOVED
NORTHEAST AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH
32N123W TO 16N140W. THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WEST OF 125W. A PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS WITHIN 240 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH EAST OF 130W. NO CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN THIS PLUME.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 105W TO
115W. THIS AREA IS MOSTLY DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
HOWEVER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W
IS WITHIN THE TROUGH AREA. ALSO CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE
ITCZ SOUTH OF THE TROUGH EAST OF 107W IN THE DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW INCLUDING OVER THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE AREA WEST OF
135W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE
AREA EAST OF 105W IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT RESULTING TO THE ABOVE
MENTIONED ITCZ CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY THE
DIFFLUENCE.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 110W
AND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXCEPT FOR THE TWO TROPICAL
CYCLONES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH.

GAP NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO TO ABOUT 90W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT.




Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
1201. Fshhead
Wooof!! I am just REAL happy she is a swimmin' in the Pacific & not the Atlantic..
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God, I wish the hurricane hunters were flying through Felicia right now. The action they would find!
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Some model putts Felicia at 920mb in 6-12hrs, if get this pressure with this structure CAT5 is possible
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
1198. Fshhead
"

Evening Everyone,
Thats a Roger on the solid eyewall ;)
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2009 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 15:00:39 N Lon : 130:36:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 935.0mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.5 6.4 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +13.1C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
Felicia had a little pulse there could be going through some EWRC's. I wonder if the winds will die down a little with the next reading.

I don't think Felicia has had any EWRCs. The NHC already indicated that there wasn't any sign of an outer eyewall developing the current eye has been pretty stable...actually it's really cleared out in the past couple hours.
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1192. snotly
Felicia had a little pulse there could be going through some EWRC's. I wonder if the winds will die down a little with the next reading.
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Quoting snotly:
Is the nam showing something forming in the gulf later this week? I do see a ridge building north and east over the conus. Will that put a damper on the wind shear?


I was just noticing that. So far as I can tell they're the only ones.
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1190. snotly
Is the nam showing something forming in the gulf later this week? I do see a ridge building north and east over the conus. Will that put a damper on the wind shear?
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OKAY...so I'm back, and what have we got here? Felicia is a strong cat. 4, and is absorbing Enrique's moisture. Headed for Hawaii, kind of reminds me of Flossie. The Atlantic is unsually quiet, but there's a wave off Senegal that looks like it's worth watching over the next two weeks, if it can maintain itself. Typhoon Morakot is now a strong cat. 1, and will become a cat. 2 by the next advisory. Expected to strengthen to a cat. 4 before making landfall on Taipei as a cat. 3, but currently it appears to be tracking more southwest than west-southwest. Models are disagreeing on its track, especially NOGAPS which stalls it just short of hitting Taiwan and sends it toward Korea. There's also a second West Pacific system worth watching, and that's 90W.INVEST. It's currently east of Saipan, but the models seem to develop it, especially the CMC, which points it threateningly (given rapid intensification) toward southern China. Now that's all for today, see y'all (southern roots NOT present) next time!
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Amazing storm goodnight all. May Felicia die before it gets to Hawaii.
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Blog update, please look and tell me what you think!


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html
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1184. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "KIKO" has maintained its course and continues to move towards Northern Taiwan.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
============================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Kiko (Morakot) located at 23.5°N 127.9°E or 620 kms northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 130 km/h (70 knots) with gustiness of 160 km/h (85 knots).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1. Batanes

Additional Information
=====================
This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over Luzon and Western Visayas.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concern are advised to take approriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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OMG Felicia is quite the cane...look at that eye.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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