CSU and TSR continue to predict a near-average hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:18 PM GMT on August 04, 2009

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A tropical disturbance embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), near 9N 35W, is moving west at about 15 mph. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with this tropical wave has changed little over the past 24 hours, and remains disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a moderate wind shift, but nothing resembling an organized surface circulation. Top winds were in the 20 - 30 mph range. Strong easterly winds are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over the wave, which is marginally conducive for development. The disturbance is about 300 miles south of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), so dust and dry air should not hinder development over the next few days.

Given the disturbance's current lack of organization, combined with the presence of 20 knots of wind shear, any development should be slow to occur. The forecast wind shear along the storm's path over the next five days is predicted to remain at or below 20 knots, which should allow some slow development. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) will warm from about 28°C to 29°C as the storm progresses westward. The GFS model has been indicating some development is possible in several of its runs over the past few days, but has not been consistent with this prediction. None of the other models show any development of the system. NHC is giving the disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression over the next two days, which is a good forecast. The GFS and ECMWF models predict the system will be approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday. Both models forecast the development of a band of very high wind shear just to the north of the islands at that time, so the long-range survival of anything that might manage to develop is in doubt.

CSU forecast team continues to predict an average hurricane season
A near-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2009, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 4 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 83% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is a step down from their June forecast, which called for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Their April forecast called for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for a near-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (27% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (26% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an average risk of a major hurricane (37%; 42% is average).

The forecasters noted that while sea surface temperature anomalies have increased in the tropical Atlantic and surface pressures have fallen in recent weeks, which normally would favor higher hurricane activity, the presence of El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific should counteract these influences. They forecast that the current weak El Niño event will strengthen to a moderate event by September:

El Niño events tend to be associated with increased levels of vertical wind shear and decreased levels of Atlantic hurricane activity. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures anomalies have warmed somewhat since our early June prediction and surface pressures have fallen somewhat. But, the negative influences of El Niño-induced strong Caribbean Basin and Main Development Region vertical wind shear typically dominate over surface pressure and sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic.



Figure 1. Change in Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (in °C) between July 2009 and May 2009. Most of the tropical Atlantic has warmed, relative to normal, over the past 2 months. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: weak to moderate El Niño conditions, and average tropical Atlantic and far northern Atlantic SSTs. Those four years were 2002, which featured Hurricane Lili that hit Louisiana as a Category 1 storm; 1965, which had Category 3 Betsy that hit New Orleans; 1963, which had Category 4 Hurricane Flora that devastated Cuba; and 1957, which didn't have any hurricanes that hit hit land during the peak part of hurricane season. The mean activity for these four years was 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes--almost the same as the 2009 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the August forecasts?
The August forecasts by the CSU team have historically offered a skill of 45 -62% higher than a "no-skill" forecast using climatology (Figure 2). However, they are using a new forecast scheme this year, so it is difficult to judge how skillful this year's forecast might be.


Figure 2. Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed at Colorado State University (CSU) by Dr. Bill Gray's team (colored squares) and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR, colored lines). The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

August 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) also issued a new forecast today, and have increased their numbers by 20% from their June and July forecasts. TSR is also calling for a near-average season, predicting 12.6 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2.8 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 103% of average. Their June forecast called for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are slightly above the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 40% chance of an above-average season, 44% chance of a near-average season, and a 19% chance of a below-average season, as defined by ACE index. TSR rates their skill level as 51% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 60% skill for hurricanes, and 44% skill for intense hurricanes. These are far higher skill numbers than the June ones: 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.8 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 25% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.1 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites one main factor for their increased forecast: higher sea surface temperatures than expected over the tropical Atlantic, due to the fact that the trade winds over the Atlantic should be slower than originally anticipated. Faster than average trade winds create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling.

The CSU and TSR groups are done making forecasts for the coming hurricane season, but NOAA is still due to put out an August update.

I'll have an update on Wednesday.
Jeff Masters

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Quoting Relix:


So this is more Northerly that predicted, which means it will probably become a fish storm right?

That depends on when it lifts out of the ITCZ
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Hope people in Hawaii have supplies...



i give up...
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Look at the shear tendency near Cuba and Jamaica. Could we be witnessing some shear dropping in the Caribbean?
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
1169. 7544
local mets just stated that . Chicklits wave could become a td in 24 to 48 hours im on board with her also
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Quoting Relix:


So this is more Northerly that predicted, which means it will probably become a fish storm right?

The whole area is so disorganized it is not easy to say whether it will develop never mind where it will go.
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1167. 7544
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

It's not poofed, but it has not developed. It appears to be trying to develop a new center near 12N and 30W


local news states the . Chicklit wave coul
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1166. Relix
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

It's not poofed, but it has not developed. It appears to be trying to develop a new center near 12N and 33-32W


So this is more Northerly that predicted, which means it will probably become a fish storm right?
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Quoting Relix:
So, huh, anything new with the CATL wave? or did it poof?

It's not poofed, but it has not developed. It appears to be trying to develop a new center near 12N and 30W
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
I know many of you guys don't like The Weather Channel, but, I think Dr. Lyons knows his stuff, and he gives the southern central Atlantic disturbence almost no chance of developement, especially as it approaches the islands where the westerly winds, he says, will remain strong. I guess we'll see.
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1163. msphar
Looks poofy to me.
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Hope people in Hawaii have supplies...
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For goodness sakes...just looked at our Baby Depression.
It's rockin' and rollin' in the ICTZ with more than one center.
Link
Puhleese.
Remember what time of year it is.
It's just rolling around in the cradle.
Let's see what happens in the next couple of days.
Prepare the crow. Someone's going to eat it!
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1160. Relix
So, huh, anything new with the CATL wave? or did it poof?
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GFDL: Cat 2
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Quoting mikatnight:
Oh well, my bedtime too. I leave you with a top ten list:

Top Ten Reasons Hurricane Season is Like Christmas

10. Decorating the house (boarding up windows).
9. Dragging out boxes that haven't been used since last season (camping gear, flashlights).
8. Last minute shopping in crowded stores.
7. Regular TV shows pre-empted for "specials".
6. Family coming to stay with you.
5. Family and friends from out-of-state calling.
4. Buying food you don't normally buy ... and in large quantities.
3. Days off from work.
2. Candles.

1 And the number one reason Hurricane Season is like Christmas...At some point you know you're going to have a tree in your house!

This gets my vote as most quotable quote!
Very clever. Yes. It's a Letterman shoe-in!
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1157. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Storm "KIKO" has maintained its strength while moving West Northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
============================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Kiko (Morakot) located at 22.8°N 133.0°E or 1,030 kms east northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 km/h (55 knots) with gustiness of 120 km/h (65 knots).

Additional Information
=====================
This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over Luzon and Western Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concern are advised to take approriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Quoting cchsweatherman:


LMAO! That so reminds me about the Late Night Show with David Letterman. Thats awesome!
good one and so very true
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1155. BDAwx
I think it almost doesn't matter how many storms form... (except if multiple storms head the same way)
whats more important is where they go and how strong they are when they get there. However it is unrealistic to expect such a forecast because it is difficult for forecast models to see that far into the future with accuracy and consistency. So instead of making these forecasts of how many storms form it would be more productive to make a forecast, although understandably, relatively difficult, to show where storms would go if they form, on a monthly basis not seasonally.

BTW Pacific's looking pretty busy, ignore the Atlantic for now!!!
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It's gonna be a long 20 days..... Then school is back in and we can have a party!
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1152. GatorWX
I think our wave in c atl may have entrained some dry air or african dust, which may be why this system is currently struggling a bit to fire off some new convection. Although the main SAL air mass is a good distance to its north, there is still a good bit of dry air to its immediate north.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


They scaled it back 1 named storm, not that big of a deal. Also TSR actually increased their forecast

Clearly they dont feel El Nino will have as much of an impact on the season as many here have shown.


TSR's increase is a bit skeptical to me. Their reasoning behind it wasn't exactly very supportive of the activity they suggest. CSU could be closer. Again, anything can happen I guess but for now 13 could be too high.
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Quoting mikatnight:
Oh well, my bedtime too. I leave you with a top ten list:

Top Ten Reasons Hurricane Season is Like Christmas

10. Decorating the house (boarding up windows).
9. Dragging out boxes that haven't been used since last season (camping gear, flashlights).
8. Last minute shopping in crowded stores.
7. Regular TV shows pre-empted for "specials".
6. Family coming to stay with you.
5. Family and friends from out-of-state calling.
4. Buying food you don't normally buy ... and in large quantities.
3. Days off from work.
2. Candles.

1 And the number one reason Hurricane Season is like Christmas...At some point you know you're going to have a tree in your house!


LMAO! That so reminds me about the Late Night Show with David Letterman. Thats awesome!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
El Nino Effect Scales Back Hurricane Forecast

AP Staff reporter

August 4, 2009
FORT COLLINS, CO - Colorado State University researcher William Gray has slightly downgraded his forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Gray said Tuesday his team now expects 10 named storms, including four hurricanes, two of them major.

In June, the team forecast 11 named storms, including five hurricanes, two of them major.

Gray says the forecast was scaled back because El Nino conditions are expected to intensify. El Nino conditions suppress hurricane formation.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 till Nov. 30.

This is Gray's 26th year of forecasting hurricanes. His predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others, but many say long-range forecasts have little practical value beyond focusing public attention on the dangers.


They scaled it back 1 named storm, not that big of a deal. Also TSR actually increased their forecast

Clearly they dont feel El Nino will have as much of an impact on the season as many here have shown.
1148. GatorWX
Quoting Tazmanian:
El Nino Effect Scales Back Hurricane Forecast

AP Staff reporter

August 4, 2009
FORT COLLINS, CO - Colorado State University researcher William Gray has slightly downgraded his forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Gray said Tuesday his team now expects 10 named storms, including four hurricanes, two of them major.

In June, the team forecast 11 named storms, including five hurricanes, two of them major.

Gray says the forecast was scaled back because El Nino conditions are expected to intensify. El Nino conditions suppress hurricane formation.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 till Nov. 30.

This is Gray's 26th year of forecasting hurricanes. His predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others, but many say long-range forecasts have little practical value beyond focusing public attention on the dangers.


Taz, remember the forecasts in 2004? They (Gray and NHC both lowered expectations in their later forecast because of el nino conditions shaping up. Boy, were they wrong. They both downgraded their forecasts from earlier on.
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1147. 7544
Quoting Tazmanian:
El Nino Effect Scales Back Hurricane Forecast

AP Staff reporter

August 4, 2009
FORT COLLINS, CO - Colorado State University researcher William Gray has slightly downgraded his forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Gray said Tuesday his team now expects 10 named storms, including four hurricanes, two of them major.

In June, the team forecast 11 named storms, including five hurricanes, two of them major.

Gray says the forecast was scaled back because El Nino conditions are expected to intensify. El Nino conditions suppress hurricane formation.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 till Nov. 30.

This is Gray's 26th year of forecasting hurricanes. His predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others, but many say long-range forecasts have little practical value beyond focusing public attention on the dangers.
\\

thanks not much of a big change we wait watch and see . things should pick up soon lets hope we dont get one after another but looks like that might just happen
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Quoting mikatnight:
Oh well, my bedtime too. I leave you with a top ten list:

Top Ten Reasons Hurricane Season is Like Christmas

10. Decorating the house (boarding up windows).
9. Dragging out boxes that haven't been used since last season (camping gear, flashlights).
8. Last minute shopping in crowded stores.
7. Regular TV shows pre-empted for "specials".
6. Family coming to stay with you.
5. Family and friends from out-of-state calling.
4. Buying food you don't normally buy ... and in large quantities.
3. Days off from work.
2. Candles.

1 And the number one reason Hurricane Season is like Christmas...At some point you know you're going to have a tree in your house!
needs to be sent to Letterman
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


But im not going to ignore him for voicing his opinion. Thats not how I roll.
kudos
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El Nino Effect Scales Back Hurricane Forecast

AP Staff reporter

August 4, 2009
FORT COLLINS, CO - Colorado State University researcher William Gray has slightly downgraded his forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Gray said Tuesday his team now expects 10 named storms, including four hurricanes, two of them major.

In June, the team forecast 11 named storms, including five hurricanes, two of them major.

Gray says the forecast was scaled back because El Nino conditions are expected to intensify. El Nino conditions suppress hurricane formation.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 till Nov. 30.

This is Gray's 26th year of forecasting hurricanes. His predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others, but many say long-range forecasts have little practical value beyond focusing public attention on the dangers.
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1143. GatorWX
Quoting mikatnight:
Good Evening All,

With all due respect – I don’t want to ruffle any feathers – but I was wondering, is there some sort of list of credentials or qualifications for the various blog members, so that one might be better able to discern to some degree the weight of a writer’s opinion? I assume not everyone is an actual meteorologist, and I do know that some – like StormW – may not have the paper, but their opinions are never-the-less regarded with respect by other members, and even in some cases – like StormW – by other meteorologists. I’ve clicked on a few icons, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone “put their shingle out” as it were. So I was thinking there ought to be a list; sort of a brief summary of the main “clique” members, you know, kind of a “here we are – love us or leave us” deal. Yesno?


There would be a war of words if we started answering this. There are about 7 or 8 that I personally rely on here and do not wish to mention names. Just pay attention to what people say, who others direct their questions at and the responses they give. After a day or two, you'll figure it out.
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Quoting presslord:


please translate into English....ty
see post regarding drinking and posting...
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nvm
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Quoting AllStar17:


No, I was not saying that. He does not understand that weak systems' tend to struggle during DMIN. I was not saying put him on ignore.


yea I know what you meant, didn't infer anything from that post. Just people ignore and ridicule other people for posting their opinions, and I won't do that. Just stating the inaccuracies. ;)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


But im not going to ignore him for voicing his opinion. Thats not how I roll.


Really?
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Oh well, my bedtime too. I leave you with a top ten list:

Top Ten Reasons Hurricane Season is Like Christmas

10. Decorating the house (boarding up windows).
9. Dragging out boxes that haven't been used since last season (camping gear, flashlights).
8. Last minute shopping in crowded stores.
7. Regular TV shows pre-empted for "specials".
6. Family coming to stay with you.
5. Family and friends from out-of-state calling.
4. Buying food you don't normally buy ... and in large quantities.
3. Days off from work.
2. Candles.

1 And the number one reason Hurricane Season is like Christmas...At some point you know you're going to have a tree in your house!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


But im not going to ignore him for voicing his opinion. Thats not how I roll.


No, I was not saying that. He does not understand that weak systems' tend to struggle during DMIN. I was not saying put him on ignore.
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Alright guys, there are a thousand steps that have to happen in order and we are on number 8, you guys are talking about number 692.



;)
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I am really going to bed this time and just for the record so I can eat my crow, I said last night this wave will hit orange status before it goes away. In 4-5 days it will hit unfavroable conditions as the I feel the models are over aggresive in reducing shear levels. By Saturday or Sunday we will know one way or the other. Have a good night all this was fun.
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1134. GatorWX
It's not jut mid level rotation, but surface winds as well. There is no "closed" circulation, but rotating winds are at the surface, not just in the mid levels. Also, systems almost always wane in convection when developing, although not always. This does not mean that the structure of the system is struggling, just that there is a lack of intense convection. It's clear that shear is not a huge factor yet, and sst's are certainly warm. I'm not saying with any certainty this will develop, I would say there's still a very good chance. Its biggest challenge is isolating and separating from the itcz. Dmax and dmin are obviously factors in the amount of convection a system can sustain, but there are many other factors at play here. This scenario has happened again and again. A system looks dead and suddenly comes back to life the following day or two. usually the second go around is the time when "true" development takes place. I can't remember if it were dean or felix, and someone else has already mentioned this, but it took a few days before the system really got going. And as I've mentioned above its one biggest struggle is its latitude and interaction with the itcz. At this time there are no other masses of convection in its immediately proximity competing for convection, as StormW mentioned, there is another smaller vorticity in the vicinity competing with our main player. So basically what we have is broad cyclonic rotation. My point is that this is not dead, because it never really was anything to begin with, but it does still have just as good a chance as it ever did at developing. It doesn't look as good as it did, when many people where saying it should be a TD or invest simply because convection has diminished. There never was a surface low that we know of, so it probably never should have even been an invest. Just because the convection resembles a stronger system on satellite doesn't mean it's weaker or stronger, or more or less developed. It most certainly will need to gain some latitude soon as it approaches s america, and tonight it should be able to build some convection again. Tomorrow if things haven't changed, we can probably assume its really running out of time and then it will be understandable to start truly writing this one off.
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Quoting AllStar17:


Cybr......he did this earlier; and I replied to him and it opened up a whole new can of worms. I also told him the same thing you told him. He does not understand.


But im not going to ignore him for voicing his opinion. Thats not how I roll.
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Good night. I will see how our disturbance is fairing in the morning.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

oh well...at least it was fun to talk about for 5 minutes haha.


Yep.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Your obviously new. We had loads of storms just like this last year that developed, a few hit the US, one 4 times. Weak systems can't maintain convection in Dmin, stronger storms can. This is a weak system, this is expected.


Cybr......he did this earlier; and I replied to him and it opened up a whole new can of worms. I also told him the same thing you told him. He does not understand.
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Quoting AllStar17:
The track has also been fixed. So, just a typo on the graphic.

oh well...at least it was fun to talk about for 5 minutes haha.
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Quoting CyberStorm:


if it cant maintain convection during dmin than there is nothing there.it can spin all it wants but no surface low means no storm.it will gradually move into ca as a blob


Your obviously new. We had loads of storms just like this last year that developed, a few hit the US, one 4 times. Weak systems can't maintain convection in Dmin, stronger storms can. This is a weak system, this is expected.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Crap, I hope Felicia doesn't get to close to the US state of Hawaii. We could be dealing with the first US landfall of the Season.


At least it would be weakening. I have a feeling Felicia may put on another very impressive burst of strengthening....and it would not surprise me if she got to Cat. 4
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Quoting mikatnight:
Good Evening All,

With all due respect – I don’t want to ruffle any feathers – but I was wondering, is there some sort of list of credentials or qualifications for the various blog members, so that one might be better able to discern to some degree the weight of a writer’s opinion? I assume not everyone is an actual meteorologist, and I do know that some – like StormW – may not have the paper, but their opinions are never-the-less regarded with respect by other members, and even in some cases – like StormW – by other meteorologists. I’ve clicked on a few icons, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone “put their shingle out” as it were. So I was thinking there ought to be a list; sort of a brief summary of the main “clique” members, you know, kind of a “here we are – love us or leave us” deal. Yesno?

Isnt more fun to try and guess who is and isnt? haha j/k but I feel they are just bragging tools when this blog should not weigh one persons opinion over another. that is how we all learn. You have to stick your own neck out there, make a call one way or another and if you are wrong, learn from it. What you learn will stick with you longer if you do it that way IMO.
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The track has also been fixed. So, just a typo on the graphic.
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Crap, I hope Felicia doesn't get to close to the US state of Hawaii. We could be dealing with the first US landfall of the Season.
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Huh.....maybe a typo on the graphic. NHC forecasts it to dissipate in 120 hours per forecast discussion.

THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER
ENRIQUE WILL INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...ENRIQUE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 27C
AND MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATERS DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED
WEAKENING AFTER 12 HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
CONDITIONS...WITH A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS
BEFORE DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 16.0N 119.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 18.0N 123.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 18.8N 125.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 19.1N 127.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 19.5N 131.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 19.0N 135.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/BRENNAN
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from accuweather/inaccuweather.com
Disturbed weather in the central Atlantic
Last Update: 4-AUG-2009 6:13pm EDT

An area of disturbed weather 1600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is being monitored for possible tropical development later this week.

An area of showers and thunderstorms near 9 north, 36 west has been growing and dying during the past 12 hours. Satellite images show some cyclonic turning in the cloud motion. However, thunderstorms are not organizing enough to be too concerned for development during the next day or two. However, if if a more coherent lower level feature becomes established then development will have to be considered. Satellite derived products show sufficient warm water and low shear as positive factors for development. Other satellite derived data shows a considerable amount of dry air to the north of this feature preventing thunderstorm growth north of 10 north. Surface pressures over this area have fallen over the past 24 hours. So, given all these factors there is some potential for development.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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