Late-starting hurricane seasons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2009

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Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AllStar17:


El Nino is NOT strengthening rapidly....in fact it seems as though it has peeked and may be weakening.



What does that mean?
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Quoting jeffs713:
Btw.... the drama blog is down the hall, 3rd door on the right.


Actually, I think it's here!! LOL
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Barrier islands, when left undisturbed, do move. The problems come up when people build permanent structures on them, then they don't want the island to move anymore. Which is pretty hard to do.
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sorry, I think my post got up here twice...
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Thanks for that reminder, Keeper. Most of us have been guilty of at least one of those transgressions at one time or another.

Below are the actual "Rules of the Road" for this blog that we all have linked to our comment box.
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Interesting - I was not aware of that.

Quoting AllStar17:


El Nino is NOT strengthening rapidly....in fact it seems as though it has peeked and may be weakening.
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Btw.... the drama blog is down the hall, 3rd door on the right.
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For those on the Gulf Coast...

Do you fell we will have a storm this year?
Any "gut" feelings? just curious.

I know the season is slow now, but can't help but feel we are going to have some strong ones this year....maybe not,just my feeling.
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Quoting koneofdeath:
I got a question for you guys. (many years ago)
I told my geography professor I was moving to Florida he said the following statements to me.

1) A barrier Island moves an average of 50 feet every 100 years.

2) If you live on a barrier Island count on losing everything you own every 50 years.

3) Every county of Florida will experience a cat 4 or greater, in 50 years intervals.

Do you guys think these statements are true?

1) True
2) True
3) Statistically, it is highly probable, but with statistics, nothing is for certain. (it also varies on what you consider "experiencing a cat 4")
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Quoting code1:
Of course I did CT. I didn't want to bother the main blog with nonsense since you were not the one of the one's to whom I was speaking. You threatened me in reply, but I won't post it here, nor will I report to admin. Crybaby. Here's another for you to report on blog. I'm outta here. Got better things to do than debate f**ls. And BTW, I am definitely female.


I threaten to report you in reply, please just leave me alone. You went personal, you insulted me and you went even lower, insulting my mother. Please Im trying to be level headed about this, just leave me alone. I don't want to fight, want to forecast and have a plesant discussion.
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No need to post personal WU mail on the blog best to keep that private.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I would like to add something, code1 just sent me an email:
FROM: code1
TO: CybrTeddy
DATE: 2009-07-29 19:10:52 (7:10 PM GMT)
SUBJECT: no subject

I refuse to play your game CT. You and your mother has been the one of the jokes of blogs since you all came here. Get a life!! You are on blog almost 24-7. Don't you work or have a real life!

When you understand English, then we'll talk. Until then, don't you dare try to stop my posts nor re-direct them. Understand me now? You are to be pitied, and judging from my mails in just the last bit? Most pity you as well here.

I was NOT calling you a wishcaster, but if you are feeling guilty and the shoe fits, I hope you wear it well and that if you are wishing for a cane, I hope it hits your area instead of mine.


Just a heads up, if you get an email like this just report him to the admins. Again, just a warning. NOW, back to weather.

Wow! That was almost painful to read. Did he attend the JFV school of grammar?
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
For those who live on the Gulf Coast...

Do you think we will will have a storm to worry about this year? Any "gut" feelings out there??

Just curious.....

I know the season is slow right now, but I keep thinking that we are to have some strong storms this year...maybe not, but that is my feeling.

Will a storm form in the Atlantic basin this year? For sure.
Will a storm impact land in some way this year? Extremely likely (call it 99% sure).
Will it impact the Texas coast?
The chance is there, but it is entirely too early to say yes or no.

Forecasting is a science of numbers and facts. Hunches and guesses aren't really part of forecasting, and nothing should be based upon them.
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I got a question for you guys. (many years ago)
I told my geography professor I was moving to Florida he said the following statements to me.

1) A barrier Island moves an average of 50 feet every 100 years.

2) If you live on a barrier Island count on losing everything you own every 50 years.

3) Every county of Florida will experience a cat 4 or greater, in 50 years intervals.

Do you guys think these statements are true?
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Calm before the big storms that will cause this blog to jam and shut down
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Nothing across the basin in terms of tc formation,very stable environment out there.Again this could be a rude awaking for folks like myself who enjoy tracking
cyclones.We are getting beyond the time that we can attribute the slow feel of the season to just having been spoiled by all the active years in the last 15 yrs or so.

Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
Quoting CycloneOz:


If anyone can survive a Cat 5 outdoors, in the eye-wall, near the water with debris and not get injured or dead, it could be me in my "expensive" suit.

Not saying it "will" be me, but my suit is really designed well...and you can back me up on that since you know the details of it.

Amen brother!
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385. IKE
As calm as it gets....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting CycloneOz:


If anyone can survive a Cat 5 outdoors, in the eye-wall, near the water with debris and not get injured or dead, it could be me in my "expensive" suit.

Not saying it "will" be me, but my suit is really designed well...and you can back me up on that since you know the details of it.
Test it and let us know!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


you are about to be replaced with empty space

by the way its an offense to alter or otherwise present official information that is not in it orginal form


LOL during the next 72hrs.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
In Dr. Masters list of late start years he forgot 1992.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


you are about to be replaced with empty space just like whats in your head

by the way its an offense to alter or otherwise present official information that is not in it orginal form
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If this pattern continues, we'll see storm free tropics on into the middle of August!
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NO STORMS IN JULY!

2 beautiful months of storm free tropics!
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
For those who live on the Gulf Coast...

Do you think we will will have a storm to worry about this year? Any "gut" feelings out there??

Just curious.....

I know the season is slow right now, but I keep thinking that we are to have some strong storms this year...maybe not, but that is my feeling.

If you're looking for "gut" feelings, futuremet has just release a "deep analysis."
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Thanks WS.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Texas, ive been having that gut feeling!!
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I have moved from sarasota and will have a new handle soon. I am now in Jacksonville
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Possible Disturbance Has Been Detected Near The Bahamas

All Blog Forecasters and Mets Should Report to Main Blog, Stat!


lol, It's just a ULL.

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Are there any models developing the wave that just came off of Africa?
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For those who live on the Gulf Coast...

Do you think we will will have a storm to worry about this year? Any "gut" feelings out there??

Just curious.....

I know the season is slow right now, but I keep thinking that we are to have some strong storms this year...maybe not, but that is my feeling.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Man, don't you know that fiscal conservatives are really big on "defense spending!"

LOL! :)


All too well...at least in your case it's WISE defense spending. Great stuff though, you shouldn't have to worry about getting hurt!
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thanks
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Quoting thermoclined:
Futuremet. What do you see south of the bahamas?


Upper level low
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Futuremet. What do you see south of the bahamas?
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Quoting ftpiercecane:

I was looking at that feature earlier, just not quite sure what to make of it.

Tell me that's not a rebirth of 97L. LOL
EASTATL
ShearMap
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It must be an ull as the lang range radar out of Miami shows northerly movement to the storms...
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Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF... shows nothing..............


But shows a powerful hurricane in the EPAC.
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Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF... shows nothing..............


Surprise Surprise
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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